Goldman, JPMorgan see Turkish economy expanding

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase revised up their 2017 growth estimates for the Turkish economy, in an announcement made recently.

Goldman Sachs expects the economy to grow 2.3%, while JPMorgan Chase estimates a 2.6% expansion. The banks previously projected 1.8% growth in Turkish economy.

Decision comes after the Turkish Statistical Institute released GDP figures that showed a 3.5% increase in the fourth quarter and 2.9% for 2016.

“Turkish GDP growth rebounded strongly... exceeding both our and consensus expectations,” Goldman said in a note. The bank said the growth in consumption was a surprise and the strongest recovery was in exports.

CONSUMPTION UP BY 5.7%

Consumption is up by 5.7% in the fourth quarter after contracting 1.7% in previous quarter. Similarly, after exports declined 1.9% and 9.3% in the second and third quarters respectively, Q4 saw a 2.3% upward move.

“We expect exports to be a key driver of growth in the coming quarters,” Goldman said.

Capital Economics, a London-based independent research company, also revised Turkey’s growth projection for 2017 from 1.8% to 2.5%.

“Growth in consumer spending and fixed investment was faster than previously estimated in the preceding quarters,” it said in a note. The firm expects the economy to grow 2.5% in 2017.

15 Haziran 2017 Perşembe

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