<\/p>
ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Bir\u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan zorlu bir alt\u0131 ayd\u0131. Enflasyon, 2023\u2019ten kalan kur ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sarkan etkilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki bozulma neticesinde y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmesi bekleniyor. Kur ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, bir yandan da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerinin devreye girmesi, enflasyonun ate\u015fini bir nebze olsun s\u00f6nd\u00fcrecektir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 42-44 civar\u0131nda bir enflasyon seviyesiyle kapatabiliriz. \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> FA\u0130Z ORANLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Haziran 2023\u2019te ba\u015flayan parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Merkez Bankas\u0131 cephesinde faiz oranlar\u0131 son 22 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 66\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in gerekli bir ko\u015ful. Ama bu denli y\u00fcksek faiz seviyeleri, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bir hayli zorlad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle de KOB\u0130\u2019leri. Sonbahar itibariyle faiz oranlar\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa bir gev\u015feme ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Bu denli y\u00fcksek bir enflasyonu sadece para politikas\u0131yla yenemeyiz. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yap\u0131sal politikalarla s\u00fcreci desteklememiz \u015fart. \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130ST\u0130HDAM ARTI\u015eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi so\u011futucu etkisi, kendini talep taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok arz\/\u00fcretim taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6sterdi. Arzdaki ivme kayb\u0131 ise hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne k\u0131yasla sanayide daha belirgindi. Tekstil, ana metal ve elektronik gibi baz\u0131 alt sekt\u00f6rler negatif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullara ra\u011fmen iktisadi faaliyet genel itibariyle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklenenden daha canl\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 9\u2019un alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in bir di\u011fer sevindirici geli\u015fmeydi. Sanayide istihdam kayb\u0131 ya\u015fansa da hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki ilave istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcreci telafi etti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURLARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda stabildi. Yerel se\u00e7imlerin hemen ard\u0131ndan kurlarda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na dair manip\u00fclatif bir hava estirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ama alt\u0131 dolu olmayan bu s\u00f6ylenti ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi. Hatta bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te TL reel olarak de\u011fer kazand\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> De\u011ferlenen TL, bir taraftan enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin i\u015fini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, di\u011fer taraftan ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n rekabet g\u00fc\u00e7lerini olumsuz etkiledi. Buna ra\u011fmen ihracat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha iyi bir performans sergiledi. Bu geli\u015fmede ba\u015fta Avrupa pazar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonominin yava\u015f da olsa toparlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck. Sadece ihracat de\u011fil, turizm de y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Toparlayacak olursak, 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 biraz kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo ortaya koysa da beklendi\u011fi kadar da sert ge\u00e7medi. Yaz aylar\u0131 biraz daha zorlay\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Ama sonbahar aylar\u0131nda ko\u015fullar\u0131n rahatlamaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"yilin-ilk-yarisinin-panoramasi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17203860003XFP15CblK792D1.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":7363,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":53613,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":53487,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n panoramas\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":" ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Bir\u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan zorlu bir alt\u0131 ayd\u0131. Enflasyon, 2023\u2019ten kalan kur ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sarkan etkilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki bozulma neticesinde y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmesi bekleniyor. Kur ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, bir yandan da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerinin devreye girmesi, enflasyonun ate\u015fini bir nebze olsun s\u00f6nd\u00fcrecektir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 42-44 civar\u0131nda bir enflasyon seviyesiyle kapatabiliriz. \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> FA\u0130Z ORANLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Haziran 2023\u2019te ba\u015flayan parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Merkez Bankas\u0131 cephesinde faiz oranlar\u0131 son 22 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 66\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in gerekli bir ko\u015ful. Ama bu denli y\u00fcksek faiz seviyeleri, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bir hayli zorlad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle de KOB\u0130\u2019leri. Sonbahar itibariyle faiz oranlar\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa bir gev\u015feme ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Bu denli y\u00fcksek bir enflasyonu sadece para politikas\u0131yla yenemeyiz. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yap\u0131sal politikalarla s\u00fcreci desteklememiz \u015fart. \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130ST\u0130HDAM ARTI\u015eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi so\u011futucu etkisi, kendini talep taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok arz\/\u00fcretim taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6sterdi. Arzdaki ivme kayb\u0131 ise hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne k\u0131yasla sanayide daha belirgindi. Tekstil, ana metal ve elektronik gibi baz\u0131 alt sekt\u00f6rler negatif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullara ra\u011fmen iktisadi faaliyet genel itibariyle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklenenden daha canl\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 9\u2019un alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in bir di\u011fer sevindirici geli\u015fmeydi. Sanayide istihdam kayb\u0131 ya\u015fansa da hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki ilave istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcreci telafi etti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURLARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda stabildi. Yerel se\u00e7imlerin hemen ard\u0131ndan kurlarda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na dair manip\u00fclatif bir hava estirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ama alt\u0131 dolu olmayan bu s\u00f6ylenti ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi. Hatta bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te TL reel olarak de\u011fer kazand\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> De\u011ferlenen TL, bir taraftan enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin i\u015fini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, di\u011fer taraftan ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n rekabet g\u00fc\u00e7lerini olumsuz etkiledi. Buna ra\u011fmen ihracat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha iyi bir performans sergiledi. Bu geli\u015fmede ba\u015fta Avrupa pazar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonominin yava\u015f da olsa toparlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck. Sadece ihracat de\u011fil, turizm de y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Toparlayacak olursak, 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 biraz kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo ortaya koysa da beklendi\u011fi kadar da sert ge\u00e7medi. Yaz aylar\u0131 biraz daha zorlay\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Ama sonbahar aylar\u0131nda ko\u015fullar\u0131n rahatlamaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"yilin-ilk-yarisinin-panoramasi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17203860003XFP15CblK792D1.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17203860003XFP15CblK792D1.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":7363,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}
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