{"status":true,"post":{"id":17760,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:23:07","created_at":"2018-01-07T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:23:07.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17760,"is_featured":0,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fler canl\u0131 kalmaya devam edecek","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fler ve iktisadi faaliyetler canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak i\u015flerdeki beklentilerimizi payla\u015f\u0131m:<\/span><\/p>

1 - \u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 FAAL\u0130YETLER \u0130LK \u00c7EYREKTE CANLI OLACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlerinde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler ve sert mevsimsellikler, iktisadi faaliyetleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131llardaki ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131, Rusya ile ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, se\u00e7im ve referandumlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bekle-g\u00f6r d\u00f6nemleri ile i\u015fler ilk \u00e7eyreklerde darald\u0131. <\/span>
Yine d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar da olumsuz etkiler olu\u015fturdu. 2018 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ise \u00f6nceki y\u0131llardan daha iyi ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde giriliyor. 2018 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u00f6ncelikle 2017\u2019de h\u0131zlanan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sarkmas\u0131 ile canl\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek. Di\u011fer yandan ekonomiyi so\u011futacak bir bekle-g\u00f6r d\u00f6nemi de bulunmuyor. <\/span>
Di\u011fer riskler de \u015fimdilik i\u015fler \u00fczerinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir durumda ve iktisadi faaliyetleri \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rlamayacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede iktisadi faaliyetler y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde son birka\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re daha canl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>

2 - \u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 FAAL\u0130YETLERDEK\u0130 CANLILI\u011eI SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130 VE \u0130HRACAT S\u00dcR\u00dcKLEYECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerde canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekleyecek iki \u00f6nemli ekonomik dinamik bulunuyor. Bunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretimindeki kademeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme geliyor. Sanayi \u00fcretimi taraf\u0131nda y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span>
Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye sanayi PMI verisi 54.9 ile sanayideki h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi teyit etti. PMI verisinde \u00f6zellikle istihdam ve \u00fcretimin y\u00fcksek seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mevsimselli\u011fe ra\u011fmen al\u0131nan i\u00e7 sipari\u015flerde de art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 79.0 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerdeki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekleyen bir di\u011fer ekonomik dinamik, d\u0131\u015f talepte g\u00f6r\u00fclen canlanma ile ihracatta ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f ve dolayl\u0131 olarak da ithalatta g\u00f6r\u00fclen geni\u015flemedir. \u0130hracat son aylarda y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fczerinde, ithalat ise y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131yor. \u0130thalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim taraf\u0131ndaki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da teyit ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

3 - \u00dcCRET ARTI\u015eLARI PERAKENDE VE H\u0130ZMETLER SEKT\u00d6RLER\u0130N\u0130 DESTEKLEYECEK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Asgari \u00fccrette yap\u0131lan y\u00fczde 14.2 art\u0131\u015f ile bunun di\u011fer \u00fccretler \u00fczerinde yapaca\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f etkisi de piyasalarda talep y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyecek. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l olu\u015fturulan 1.6 milyon istihdam ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7 talebin canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecek. Perakende pazarda talep canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak. Ancak y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 nedeniyle perakende ma\u011faza kiralar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. \u0130n\u015faat ve konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00fcretim taraf\u0131 mevsimsellik ile birlikte yava\u015flarken sat\u0131\u015flar taraf\u0131nda da kademeli bir gerileme d\u00f6nemine girildi. Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015flar i\u00e7in yeni cazip firma kampanyalar\u0131 sunuluyor. Otomotiv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ise yeni y\u0131l\u0131n artan vergileri ile sat\u0131\u015flarda dura\u011fanl\u0131k bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - \u00d6ZEL SEKT\u00d6RDE YEN\u0130 KAPAS\u0130TE YATIRIMLARI BA\u015eLAYAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Yeni y\u0131lda \u00f6zellikle sanayide yeni kapasite yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bulunuyor. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile kamunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleyici olmaya devam ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca 70 milyar TL b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde stratejik yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in de karar a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da talep etkisi ile bir\u00e7ok alanda canl\u0131l\u0131k getirecek.<\/span><\/p>

5 - REEL KES\u0130M VE T\u00dcKET\u0130C\u0130 G\u00dcVEN\u0130 VE BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130 GER\u0130LEMEYE DEVAM EDERSE YEN\u0130 TE\u015eV\u0130KLER GELEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerdeki canl\u0131l\u0131k beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n reel kesim ile t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven ve beklenti endeksleri kademeli bir gerileme e\u011filimine girdi. Bu gerileme i\u00e7in olas\u0131 iki neden bulunuyor. \u0130lki reel kesim ve t\u00fcketicide son 6 ayd\u0131r ya\u015fanan canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n getirdi\u011fi doygunluktur. \u0130kincisi ise reel kesim ve t\u00fcketicinin risklere kar\u015f\u0131 kendisini korumaya alma e\u011filimidir. Her ikisinde de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeni te\u015fvik ve desteklerine ihtiya\u00e7 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

6 - \u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 FAAL\u0130YETLER CANLI KALIRKEN ENFLASYONA VE MAL\u0130YETLERE D\u0130KKAT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

H\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nceli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131 ve iktisadi faaliyetlerin canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
Bu nedenle geni\u015fletici maliye ve para politikas\u0131 ile kamunun \u00e7e\u015fitli destekleri devam edecek. Uygulanan ekonomi politikalar\u0131 2018\u2019de i\u015flerin ve i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n canl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecek. Ancak bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli 2018\u2019de i\u015fler ve talep y\u00f6n\u00fcnde canl\u0131l\u0131k vaat ederken fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> \u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerdeki canl\u0131l\u0131ktan yararlanal\u0131m ancak enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131n etkin bir maliyet ve k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6netimi yapal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ilk-ceyreginde-isler-canli-kalmaya-devam-edecek","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fler canl\u0131 kalmaya devam edecek","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":81,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":17859,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17760,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fler canl\u0131 kalmaya devam edecek","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fler ve iktisadi faaliyetler canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak i\u015flerdeki beklentilerimizi payla\u015f\u0131m:<\/span><\/p>

1 - \u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 FAAL\u0130YETLER \u0130LK \u00c7EYREKTE CANLI OLACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlerinde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler ve sert mevsimsellikler, iktisadi faaliyetleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131llardaki ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131, Rusya ile ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, se\u00e7im ve referandumlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bekle-g\u00f6r d\u00f6nemleri ile i\u015fler ilk \u00e7eyreklerde darald\u0131. <\/span>
Yine d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar da olumsuz etkiler olu\u015fturdu. 2018 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ise \u00f6nceki y\u0131llardan daha iyi ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde giriliyor. 2018 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u00f6ncelikle 2017\u2019de h\u0131zlanan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sarkmas\u0131 ile canl\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek. Di\u011fer yandan ekonomiyi so\u011futacak bir bekle-g\u00f6r d\u00f6nemi de bulunmuyor. <\/span>
Di\u011fer riskler de \u015fimdilik i\u015fler \u00fczerinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir durumda ve iktisadi faaliyetleri \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rlamayacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede iktisadi faaliyetler y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde son birka\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re daha canl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>

2 - \u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 FAAL\u0130YETLERDEK\u0130 CANLILI\u011eI SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130 VE \u0130HRACAT S\u00dcR\u00dcKLEYECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerde canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekleyecek iki \u00f6nemli ekonomik dinamik bulunuyor. Bunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretimindeki kademeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme geliyor. Sanayi \u00fcretimi taraf\u0131nda y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span>
Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye sanayi PMI verisi 54.9 ile sanayideki h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi teyit etti. PMI verisinde \u00f6zellikle istihdam ve \u00fcretimin y\u00fcksek seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mevsimselli\u011fe ra\u011fmen al\u0131nan i\u00e7 sipari\u015flerde de art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 79.0 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerdeki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekleyen bir di\u011fer ekonomik dinamik, d\u0131\u015f talepte g\u00f6r\u00fclen canlanma ile ihracatta ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f ve dolayl\u0131 olarak da ithalatta g\u00f6r\u00fclen geni\u015flemedir. \u0130hracat son aylarda y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fczerinde, ithalat ise y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131yor. \u0130thalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim taraf\u0131ndaki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da teyit ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

3 - \u00dcCRET ARTI\u015eLARI PERAKENDE VE H\u0130ZMETLER SEKT\u00d6RLER\u0130N\u0130 DESTEKLEYECEK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Asgari \u00fccrette yap\u0131lan y\u00fczde 14.2 art\u0131\u015f ile bunun di\u011fer \u00fccretler \u00fczerinde yapaca\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f etkisi de piyasalarda talep y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyecek. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l olu\u015fturulan 1.6 milyon istihdam ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7 talebin canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecek. Perakende pazarda talep canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak. Ancak y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 nedeniyle perakende ma\u011faza kiralar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. \u0130n\u015faat ve konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00fcretim taraf\u0131 mevsimsellik ile birlikte yava\u015flarken sat\u0131\u015flar taraf\u0131nda da kademeli bir gerileme d\u00f6nemine girildi. Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015flar i\u00e7in yeni cazip firma kampanyalar\u0131 sunuluyor. Otomotiv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ise yeni y\u0131l\u0131n artan vergileri ile sat\u0131\u015flarda dura\u011fanl\u0131k bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - \u00d6ZEL SEKT\u00d6RDE YEN\u0130 KAPAS\u0130TE YATIRIMLARI BA\u015eLAYAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Yeni y\u0131lda \u00f6zellikle sanayide yeni kapasite yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bulunuyor. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile kamunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleyici olmaya devam ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca 70 milyar TL b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde stratejik yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in de karar a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da talep etkisi ile bir\u00e7ok alanda canl\u0131l\u0131k getirecek.<\/span><\/p>

5 - REEL KES\u0130M VE T\u00dcKET\u0130C\u0130 G\u00dcVEN\u0130 VE BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130 GER\u0130LEMEYE DEVAM EDERSE YEN\u0130 TE\u015eV\u0130KLER GELEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerdeki canl\u0131l\u0131k beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n reel kesim ile t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven ve beklenti endeksleri kademeli bir gerileme e\u011filimine girdi. Bu gerileme i\u00e7in olas\u0131 iki neden bulunuyor. \u0130lki reel kesim ve t\u00fcketicide son 6 ayd\u0131r ya\u015fanan canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n getirdi\u011fi doygunluktur. \u0130kincisi ise reel kesim ve t\u00fcketicinin risklere kar\u015f\u0131 kendisini korumaya alma e\u011filimidir. Her ikisinde de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeni te\u015fvik ve desteklerine ihtiya\u00e7 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

6 - \u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 FAAL\u0130YETLER CANLI KALIRKEN ENFLASYONA VE MAL\u0130YETLERE D\u0130KKAT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

H\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nceli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131 ve iktisadi faaliyetlerin canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
Bu nedenle geni\u015fletici maliye ve para politikas\u0131 ile kamunun \u00e7e\u015fitli destekleri devam edecek. Uygulanan ekonomi politikalar\u0131 2018\u2019de i\u015flerin ve i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n canl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecek. Ancak bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli 2018\u2019de i\u015fler ve talep y\u00f6n\u00fcnde canl\u0131l\u0131k vaat ederken fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> \u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerdeki canl\u0131l\u0131ktan yararlanal\u0131m ancak enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131n etkin bir maliyet ve k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6netimi yapal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ilk-ceyreginde-isler-canli-kalmaya-devam-edecek","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fler canl\u0131 kalmaya devam edecek","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":81,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}