{"status":true,"post":{"id":27007,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:27:10","created_at":"2021-06-10T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:27:10.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":27007,"is_featured":0,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na nas\u0131l giriyoruz?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011fun a\u015f\u0131lama ve salg\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinin azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fad\u0131k. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerde iyile\u015fme artt\u0131. \u0130yimserlik, d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamiklerinde de iyile\u015fme sa\u011flad\u0131. \u0130kinci yar\u0131ya i\u015flere y\u00f6nelik daha iyimser giriliyor. Ancak salg\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n firmalar \u00fczerinde bir y\u0131ld\u0131r yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz etkiler de halen s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 \u0130VME KAZANIYOR <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 4.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti ise y\u00fczde 17.7 geni\u015fleyerek tarihinde ilk kez bir \u00e7eyrekte 5 trilyon dolar b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek sanayi PMI verileri uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. A\u015f\u0131lama ve a\u00e7\u0131lmalar ile y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ertelenen ve \u00f6telenen talebin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ikinci yar\u0131 y\u0131lda ba\u015flayacak. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte firmalar bu talep beklentisine g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek tedarik ve \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131 yap\u0131yor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>2. MERKEZ BANKALARI \u0130\u00c7\u0130N D\u00d6N\u00dcM NOKTASI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve h\u0131zlanan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak girdi ve nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine girdi. Giderek artan bir k\u00fcresel enflasyon ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak bu enflasyonun ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna ra\u011fmen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n artan enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geni\u015fletici para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeleri bekleniyor. \u00d6zellikle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in geni\u015fletici politikalardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda bir takvim a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 bu konuda bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yorlar.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>3. \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eMEN\u0130N ART\u00c7I ETK\u0130LER\u0130 S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> K\u00fcresel ekonomideki iyile\u015fmenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u00e7\u0131 etkiler devam ediyor. \u00dcretim ve tedarik endi\u015fesi ile verilen y\u00fcksek sipari\u015fler kapasiteleri doldurmu\u015f olup teslimat ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m s\u00fcreleri uzuyor. Emtia ve hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fcr\u00fcnde arz\u0131n yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Metal ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 tedarik ve arz endi\u015feleri ile y\u00fckselmeye devam ediyor. Artan \u00fcretim, sipari\u015fler ve tedarik tela\u015f\u0131 ile y\u00fckselen navlun fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde de y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Konteyner s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131nda da iyile\u015fme gecikiyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>4. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME KALICI OLMAYA BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, 2020\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden sonra 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de y\u00fczde 7.0 ile y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kaynaklar\u0131 da giderek sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 hale geliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme daha \u00e7ok d\u0131\u015f talep ile destekleniyor. Net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 pozitif oluyor. D\u0131\u015f talepteki art\u0131\u015f, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme olu\u015fturuyor. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 11.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Sanayide b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ilave yat\u0131r\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131 da olu\u015fturuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 30.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da benzer dinamikler ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam edecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme sorunu ya\u015fanmayacak.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>5. \u0130\u015eLETMELER MAL\u0130YET ARTI\u015eLARINA D\u0130KKAT ETMEL\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Haziran ve yaz aylar\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalacak. \u0130\u00e7 talep a\u00e7\u0131lmayla hareketlenecek, ancak hareketlenme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. Firmalar\u0131n ilave net i\u015fletme sermayesi ihtiyac\u0131 artacak. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Yine firmalar y\u00fcksek maliyetler ile artan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve faiz oranlar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak. Haziran ay\u0131nda sona erecek ba\u015fta k\u0131sa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00f6dene\u011fi olmak \u00fczere desteklerin ak\u0131beti de belirleyici olacak. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015fler i\u00e7in talep kuvvetli olacak. Ancak artan risklerin iyi y\u00f6netilmesi gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ikinci-yarisina-nasil-giriyoruz","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na nas\u0131l giriyoruz?","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1095,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":27106,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":27007,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na nas\u0131l giriyoruz?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011fun a\u015f\u0131lama ve salg\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinin azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fad\u0131k. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerde iyile\u015fme artt\u0131. \u0130yimserlik, d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamiklerinde de iyile\u015fme sa\u011flad\u0131. \u0130kinci yar\u0131ya i\u015flere y\u00f6nelik daha iyimser giriliyor. Ancak salg\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n firmalar \u00fczerinde bir y\u0131ld\u0131r yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz etkiler de halen s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 \u0130VME KAZANIYOR <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 4.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti ise y\u00fczde 17.7 geni\u015fleyerek tarihinde ilk kez bir \u00e7eyrekte 5 trilyon dolar b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek sanayi PMI verileri uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. A\u015f\u0131lama ve a\u00e7\u0131lmalar ile y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ertelenen ve \u00f6telenen talebin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ikinci yar\u0131 y\u0131lda ba\u015flayacak. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte firmalar bu talep beklentisine g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek tedarik ve \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131 yap\u0131yor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>2. MERKEZ BANKALARI \u0130\u00c7\u0130N D\u00d6N\u00dcM NOKTASI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve h\u0131zlanan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak girdi ve nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine girdi. Giderek artan bir k\u00fcresel enflasyon ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak bu enflasyonun ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna ra\u011fmen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n artan enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geni\u015fletici para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeleri bekleniyor. \u00d6zellikle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in geni\u015fletici politikalardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda bir takvim a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 bu konuda bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yorlar.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>3. \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eMEN\u0130N ART\u00c7I ETK\u0130LER\u0130 S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> K\u00fcresel ekonomideki iyile\u015fmenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u00e7\u0131 etkiler devam ediyor. \u00dcretim ve tedarik endi\u015fesi ile verilen y\u00fcksek sipari\u015fler kapasiteleri doldurmu\u015f olup teslimat ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m s\u00fcreleri uzuyor. Emtia ve hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fcr\u00fcnde arz\u0131n yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Metal ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 tedarik ve arz endi\u015feleri ile y\u00fckselmeye devam ediyor. Artan \u00fcretim, sipari\u015fler ve tedarik tela\u015f\u0131 ile y\u00fckselen navlun fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde de y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Konteyner s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131nda da iyile\u015fme gecikiyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>4. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME KALICI OLMAYA BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, 2020\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden sonra 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de y\u00fczde 7.0 ile y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kaynaklar\u0131 da giderek sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 hale geliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme daha \u00e7ok d\u0131\u015f talep ile destekleniyor. Net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 pozitif oluyor. D\u0131\u015f talepteki art\u0131\u015f, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme olu\u015fturuyor. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 11.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Sanayide b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ilave yat\u0131r\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131 da olu\u015fturuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 30.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da benzer dinamikler ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam edecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme sorunu ya\u015fanmayacak.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>5. \u0130\u015eLETMELER MAL\u0130YET ARTI\u015eLARINA D\u0130KKAT ETMEL\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Haziran ve yaz aylar\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalacak. \u0130\u00e7 talep a\u00e7\u0131lmayla hareketlenecek, ancak hareketlenme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. Firmalar\u0131n ilave net i\u015fletme sermayesi ihtiyac\u0131 artacak. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Yine firmalar y\u00fcksek maliyetler ile artan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve faiz oranlar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak. Haziran ay\u0131nda sona erecek ba\u015fta k\u0131sa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00f6dene\u011fi olmak \u00fczere desteklerin ak\u0131beti de belirleyici olacak. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015fler i\u00e7in talep kuvvetli olacak. Ancak artan risklerin iyi y\u00f6netilmesi gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ikinci-yarisina-nasil-giriyoruz","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na nas\u0131l giriyoruz?","meta_description":"DR. 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