{"status":true,"post":{"id":23115,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:25:04","created_at":"2020-10-01T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:25:04.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":23115,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u2018Yeni normal\u2019de yeniden \u2018rotalanma\u2019","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019-2021 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131\u2019nda (YEP), 2018\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finden ba\u015flayarak, 2020\u2019nin sonuna kadar s\u00fcrecek bir \u2018dengeleme ve disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyordu. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin makro ekonomik verilerinde \u2018kal\u0131c\u0131\u2019 bir dengeleme d\u00f6neminin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra dengeleme s\u00fcreciyle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 bir \u2018mali disiplin\u2019i, yani hem merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesinde hem de finansal istikran\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak, cari i\u015flemler dengesinde de \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 bir disiplini hedefliyordu.<\/span>
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2018\u2019deki \u2018kur sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131\u2019na ra\u011fmen Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak\u2019\u0131n koordinasyonundaki ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 s\u00fcreci a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131yla tamamlad\u0131. Kamu b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini itinayla korunurken, cari i\u015flemler dengesi Cumhuriyet tarihinde ender g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir fazlal\u0131k verirken, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon da y\u00fczde 25\u2019lerden 10\u2019lara \u00e7ekildi.<\/span><\/p>

E\u011fer d\u00fcnya vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131na maruz kalmasayd\u0131; 2020 sonunda ba\u015far\u0131yla tamamlanacak olan \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemi T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini AB b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kriterinin yar\u0131s\u0131 bir orana, y\u00fczde 0 ile 1 aras\u0131 \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/milli gelir oran\u0131na ve y\u00fczde 8\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 zorlayan bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona getirecekti. Ancak k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in \u2018a\u011f\u0131r\u2019 kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve \u2018yeni normal\u2019 olarak adland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir d\u00f6nemi de beraberinde getirdi. Bakan Albayrak, 2021-2023 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan YEP\u2019de, salg\u0131n\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re, istihdama, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, ihracata olas\u0131 olumsuz etkilerinin bertaraf edilmesi i\u00e7in verilen desteklerin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/span>
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\u00d6ncelikle, 2021-2023 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in pandeminin ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fiddetli devam edece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018normal\u2019 ve \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019 senaryoda yer alan makro hedef ve beklentilerin son derece ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011funu ifade etmek gerekiyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi \u2018resesyon\u2019a, a\u011f\u0131r bir durgunlu\u011fa sokmadan, pandeminin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi\u2019ne olas\u0131 olumsuz etkilerini bertaraf etmek i\u00e7in hayata ge\u00e7irilmi\u015f destek paketleri ve para-maliye-direkt kontrol politikalar\u0131 setinin kademeli olarak revize edilece\u011fi, geri \u00e7ekilece\u011fi; b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam\u0131 desteklemek amac\u0131yla b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini, cari denge ve fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n 2022 sonuna kadar kademeli olarak iyile\u015ftirilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7.<\/span>
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Pandemi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki rol\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131rma noktas\u0131nda kritik \u00f6nemde f\u0131rsatlar sunan bir s\u00fcrece sebep oldu. T\u00fcrkiye, \u00f6zellikle 2022\u2019den itibaren d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde g\u00f6zlenen \u2018yeni normal\u2019 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdama en etkili \u015fekilde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren ekonomi olacak. <\/span>
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TCMB VE BEKLENT\u0130 Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
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TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 200 baz puanl\u0131k temel para politikas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131, TCMB\u2019nin neoliberal ortodoks yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcns\u00fcz s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini savunan ekonomistler cephesinde \u2018\u00f6vg\u00fcyle\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Ayn\u0131 ekonomistler, bu karar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda piyasada g\u00f6zlenen fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki bozulman\u0131n da TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na at\u0131fta bulundular. Bu nedenle, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n geni\u015f bir reel sekt\u00f6r kesiminde sat\u0131lan mal ve hizmetlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018istedikleri gibi \u2018ayarlamalar\u0131\u2019, olas\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 20\u2019si ile y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek oranda ayarlamalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u2018\u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k\u2019 bir kez daha g\u00f6zlerden uza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f oldu.<\/span>
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Salg\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ve reel sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik etkilerinin bertaraf edilmesine y\u00f6nelik y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen \u00e7ok kapsaml\u0131 para, maliye ve direkt kontrol politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin sahada sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131\u2019 etkinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 4.5 ile 5.5 aras\u0131nda pozitif orana ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, talepteki \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131, piyasadaki hareketlenmeyi zararlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131rlayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u2018fiyat ayarlamas\u0131\u2019na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren reel sekt\u00f6r e\u011filiminin \u2018man\u015fet enflasyon\u2019da sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018sapma\u2019y\u0131 konu\u015fmak yerine k\u0131sa vade i\u00e7in \u2018gerek\u00e7esine bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n\u2019 enflasyon beklentilerindeki bozulmay\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceliklendiren bir para politikas\u0131 seti olu\u015fturmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeyi tercih ettik.<\/span>
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Bu noktada, yukar\u0131daki sat\u0131rlar asla TCMB\u2019nin karar\u0131na bir ele\u015ftiri de\u011fildir; sadece bir durum tespitidir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yeni-normalde-yeniden-rotalanma","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018Yeni normal\u2019de yeniden \u2018rotalanma\u2019","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1108,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":23214,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":23115,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u2018Yeni normal\u2019de yeniden \u2018rotalanma\u2019","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019-2021 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131\u2019nda (YEP), 2018\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finden ba\u015flayarak, 2020\u2019nin sonuna kadar s\u00fcrecek bir \u2018dengeleme ve disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyordu. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin makro ekonomik verilerinde \u2018kal\u0131c\u0131\u2019 bir dengeleme d\u00f6neminin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra dengeleme s\u00fcreciyle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 bir \u2018mali disiplin\u2019i, yani hem merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesinde hem de finansal istikran\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak, cari i\u015flemler dengesinde de \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 bir disiplini hedefliyordu.<\/span>
<\/span>
2018\u2019deki \u2018kur sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131\u2019na ra\u011fmen Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak\u2019\u0131n koordinasyonundaki ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 s\u00fcreci a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131yla tamamlad\u0131. Kamu b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini itinayla korunurken, cari i\u015flemler dengesi Cumhuriyet tarihinde ender g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir fazlal\u0131k verirken, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon da y\u00fczde 25\u2019lerden 10\u2019lara \u00e7ekildi.<\/span><\/p>

E\u011fer d\u00fcnya vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131na maruz kalmasayd\u0131; 2020 sonunda ba\u015far\u0131yla tamamlanacak olan \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemi T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini AB b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kriterinin yar\u0131s\u0131 bir orana, y\u00fczde 0 ile 1 aras\u0131 \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/milli gelir oran\u0131na ve y\u00fczde 8\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 zorlayan bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona getirecekti. Ancak k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in \u2018a\u011f\u0131r\u2019 kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve \u2018yeni normal\u2019 olarak adland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir d\u00f6nemi de beraberinde getirdi. Bakan Albayrak, 2021-2023 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan YEP\u2019de, salg\u0131n\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re, istihdama, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, ihracata olas\u0131 olumsuz etkilerinin bertaraf edilmesi i\u00e7in verilen desteklerin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/span>
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\u00d6ncelikle, 2021-2023 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in pandeminin ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fiddetli devam edece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018normal\u2019 ve \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019 senaryoda yer alan makro hedef ve beklentilerin son derece ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011funu ifade etmek gerekiyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi \u2018resesyon\u2019a, a\u011f\u0131r bir durgunlu\u011fa sokmadan, pandeminin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi\u2019ne olas\u0131 olumsuz etkilerini bertaraf etmek i\u00e7in hayata ge\u00e7irilmi\u015f destek paketleri ve para-maliye-direkt kontrol politikalar\u0131 setinin kademeli olarak revize edilece\u011fi, geri \u00e7ekilece\u011fi; b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam\u0131 desteklemek amac\u0131yla b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini, cari denge ve fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n 2022 sonuna kadar kademeli olarak iyile\u015ftirilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7.<\/span>
<\/span>
Pandemi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki rol\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131rma noktas\u0131nda kritik \u00f6nemde f\u0131rsatlar sunan bir s\u00fcrece sebep oldu. T\u00fcrkiye, \u00f6zellikle 2022\u2019den itibaren d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde g\u00f6zlenen \u2018yeni normal\u2019 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdama en etkili \u015fekilde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren ekonomi olacak. <\/span>
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TCMB VE BEKLENT\u0130 Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
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TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 200 baz puanl\u0131k temel para politikas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131, TCMB\u2019nin neoliberal ortodoks yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcns\u00fcz s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini savunan ekonomistler cephesinde \u2018\u00f6vg\u00fcyle\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Ayn\u0131 ekonomistler, bu karar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda piyasada g\u00f6zlenen fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki bozulman\u0131n da TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na at\u0131fta bulundular. Bu nedenle, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n geni\u015f bir reel sekt\u00f6r kesiminde sat\u0131lan mal ve hizmetlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018istedikleri gibi \u2018ayarlamalar\u0131\u2019, olas\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 20\u2019si ile y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek oranda ayarlamalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u2018\u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k\u2019 bir kez daha g\u00f6zlerden uza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f oldu.<\/span>
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Salg\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ve reel sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik etkilerinin bertaraf edilmesine y\u00f6nelik y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen \u00e7ok kapsaml\u0131 para, maliye ve direkt kontrol politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin sahada sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131\u2019 etkinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 4.5 ile 5.5 aras\u0131nda pozitif orana ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, talepteki \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131, piyasadaki hareketlenmeyi zararlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131rlayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u2018fiyat ayarlamas\u0131\u2019na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren reel sekt\u00f6r e\u011filiminin \u2018man\u015fet enflasyon\u2019da sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018sapma\u2019y\u0131 konu\u015fmak yerine k\u0131sa vade i\u00e7in \u2018gerek\u00e7esine bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n\u2019 enflasyon beklentilerindeki bozulmay\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceliklendiren bir para politikas\u0131 seti olu\u015fturmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeyi tercih ettik.<\/span>
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Bu noktada, yukar\u0131daki sat\u0131rlar asla TCMB\u2019nin karar\u0131na bir ele\u015ftiri de\u011fildir; sadece bir durum tespitidir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yeni-normalde-yeniden-rotalanma","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018Yeni normal\u2019de yeniden \u2018rotalanma\u2019","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1108,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}