{"status":true,"post":{"id":21603,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:10:02","created_at":"2020-03-05T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:10:02.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21603,"is_featured":0,"title":"Yeni bir k\u00fcresel durgunluk tehlikesi var m\u0131?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u0130talya\u2019da yay\u0131lmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Borsalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler k\u00fcresel finans krizinde ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1.1\u2019e indi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 serbest d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. G\u00fcvenli liman alt\u0131na h\u00fccum devam ediyor. B\u00fctun bu geli\u015fmeler, vir\u00fcsun bir s\u00fcredir konu\u015fulan k\u00fcresel durgunlu\u011fa sebep olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">IMF rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen k\u00fcresel ekonomi, 2009\u2019dan sonraki en zay\u0131f performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2010-2018 aras\u0131nda ortalamada y\u00fczde 3.8 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmi\u015fti. Zaten ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puan b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayan k\u00fcresel ekonominin omuzlar\u0131na bu y\u0131l bir de vir\u00fcs eklendi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel durgunluk kavram\u0131 d\u00fcnya genelinde negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel ekonominin y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019in alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, k\u00fcresel durgunluk olarak tarif edilir. Ayn\u0131 anda \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi, \u0130talya gibi birka\u00e7 Avrupa \u00fclkesinin teknik resesyona girmesi, Almanya\u2019da \u00fcretimin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve Amerikan borsalar\u0131nda sert d\u00fczeltme hareketlerinin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 2.5 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indirmeye yetiyor. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretiminin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ticaret hacminin darald\u0131\u011f\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutacak kadar yeni i\u015f imkan\u0131 yarat\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve reel gelirin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Baz\u0131 durumlarda ekonomik dengesizlikler<\/span><span class=\"large\">o kadar \u00e7ok artar ki, k\u00fcresel ekonomi enerjisini bo\u015faltacak bir bahane arar. Bu bahane bazen bir internet veya konut balonu olabiliyor, bazen de bir vir\u00fcs. E\u011fer vir\u00fcs nisan-may\u0131s d\u00f6nemine kadar kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131namazsa \u015fu anda risk olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z durgunluk ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Reel sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik gelen \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler korkular\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de PMI rakamlar\u0131 \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131. Alman otomobil end\u00fcstrisi ihracat beklenti endeksi 10 puan birden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Son 30 y\u0131ld\u0131r ya\u015fanan her krizde ana sorunlar hep hal\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na s\u00fcp\u00fcr\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n sihirli de\u011fnekle g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Fed acil kodlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 faizi 50 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 da kuvvetle muhtemel faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekecekler. Para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na bu i\u015fin \u00fcstesinden gelmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Sorunlar\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131na inen politikalara ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var.<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel finans sisteminin ehlile\u015ftirilmesine y\u00f6nelik yar\u0131m kalm\u0131\u015f reformlar tamamlanmal\u0131,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> 250 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fan k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 stoku sa\u00e7 t\u0131ra\u015f\u0131 ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca y\u00f6netilebilir seviyelere indirilmeli,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> Vergi sistemi daha adil hale getirilmeli,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> Uluslararas\u0131 ticaret kurallar\u0131 eme\u011fin, KOB\u0130\u2019lerin ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin haklar\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla koruyacak \u015fekilde g\u00fcncellenmeli,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> Kamu harcamalar\u0131 eskiyen altyap\u0131n\u0131n yenilenmesine, temel bilimlere y\u00f6nelik Ar-Ge yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ve e\u011fitimde kalitenin yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na harcanmal\u0131,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin b\u00f6lgesel yo\u011funla\u015fma e\u011filimi g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmeli.<\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar s\u00f6ylemesi kolay, ancak uygulamas\u0131 zor politikalar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir\u00e7o\u011fu i\u00e7in yerel \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerle birlikte uluslararas\u0131 koordinasyon gerektiriyor. Ayr\u0131ca politikalar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131, siyaseti finanse eden k\u00fcresel \u015firketlerin ve elitlerin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ancak, bu politikalar hayata ge\u00e7irilmedi\u011fi takdirde k\u00fcresel ekonominin uzun vadeli istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Aksi takdirde k\u00fcresel ekonomi acaba ne zaman yeni bir durgunluk ya\u015fayacak diye fal bakmaya devam ederiz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"yeni-bir-kuresel-durgunluk-tehlikesi-var-mi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Yeni bir k\u00fcresel durgunluk tehlikesi var m\u0131?","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1128,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21702,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21603,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Yeni bir k\u00fcresel durgunluk tehlikesi var m\u0131?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u0130talya\u2019da yay\u0131lmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Borsalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler k\u00fcresel finans krizinde ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1.1\u2019e indi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 serbest d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. G\u00fcvenli liman alt\u0131na h\u00fccum devam ediyor. B\u00fctun bu geli\u015fmeler, vir\u00fcsun bir s\u00fcredir konu\u015fulan k\u00fcresel durgunlu\u011fa sebep olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">IMF rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen k\u00fcresel ekonomi, 2009\u2019dan sonraki en zay\u0131f performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2010-2018 aras\u0131nda ortalamada y\u00fczde 3.8 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmi\u015fti. Zaten ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puan b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayan k\u00fcresel ekonominin omuzlar\u0131na bu y\u0131l bir de vir\u00fcs eklendi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel durgunluk kavram\u0131 d\u00fcnya genelinde negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel ekonominin y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019in alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, k\u00fcresel durgunluk olarak tarif edilir. Ayn\u0131 anda \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi, \u0130talya gibi birka\u00e7 Avrupa \u00fclkesinin teknik resesyona girmesi, Almanya\u2019da \u00fcretimin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve Amerikan borsalar\u0131nda sert d\u00fczeltme hareketlerinin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 2.5 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indirmeye yetiyor. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretiminin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ticaret hacminin darald\u0131\u011f\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutacak kadar yeni i\u015f imkan\u0131 yarat\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve reel gelirin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Baz\u0131 durumlarda ekonomik dengesizlikler<\/span><span class=\"large\">o kadar \u00e7ok artar ki, k\u00fcresel ekonomi enerjisini bo\u015faltacak bir bahane arar. Bu bahane bazen bir internet veya konut balonu olabiliyor, bazen de bir vir\u00fcs. E\u011fer vir\u00fcs nisan-may\u0131s d\u00f6nemine kadar kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131namazsa \u015fu anda risk olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z durgunluk ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Reel sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik gelen \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler korkular\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de PMI rakamlar\u0131 \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131. Alman otomobil end\u00fcstrisi ihracat beklenti endeksi 10 puan birden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Son 30 y\u0131ld\u0131r ya\u015fanan her krizde ana sorunlar hep hal\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na s\u00fcp\u00fcr\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n sihirli de\u011fnekle g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Fed acil kodlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 faizi 50 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 da kuvvetle muhtemel faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekecekler. Para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na bu i\u015fin \u00fcstesinden gelmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Sorunlar\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131na inen politikalara ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var.<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel finans sisteminin ehlile\u015ftirilmesine y\u00f6nelik yar\u0131m kalm\u0131\u015f reformlar tamamlanmal\u0131,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> 250 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fan k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 stoku sa\u00e7 t\u0131ra\u015f\u0131 ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca y\u00f6netilebilir seviyelere indirilmeli,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> Vergi sistemi daha adil hale getirilmeli,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> Uluslararas\u0131 ticaret kurallar\u0131 eme\u011fin, KOB\u0130\u2019lerin ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin haklar\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla koruyacak \u015fekilde g\u00fcncellenmeli,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> Kamu harcamalar\u0131 eskiyen altyap\u0131n\u0131n yenilenmesine, temel bilimlere y\u00f6nelik Ar-Ge yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ve e\u011fitimde kalitenin yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na harcanmal\u0131,<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\"> K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin b\u00f6lgesel yo\u011funla\u015fma e\u011filimi g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmeli.<\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar s\u00f6ylemesi kolay, ancak uygulamas\u0131 zor politikalar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir\u00e7o\u011fu i\u00e7in yerel \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerle birlikte uluslararas\u0131 koordinasyon gerektiriyor. Ayr\u0131ca politikalar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131, siyaseti finanse eden k\u00fcresel \u015firketlerin ve elitlerin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ancak, bu politikalar hayata ge\u00e7irilmedi\u011fi takdirde k\u00fcresel ekonominin uzun vadeli istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Aksi takdirde k\u00fcresel ekonomi acaba ne zaman yeni bir durgunluk ya\u015fayacak diye fal bakmaya devam ederiz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"yeni-bir-kuresel-durgunluk-tehlikesi-var-mi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Yeni bir k\u00fcresel durgunluk tehlikesi var m\u0131?","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1128,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}