{"status":true,"post":{"id":45850,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-11-27 08:10:00","created_at":"2023-11-27T05:10:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-11-27T05:10:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":45850,"is_featured":0,"title":"Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren, de\u011fi\u015fen Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 ve TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile birlikte ekonomi politikas\u0131nda lirala\u015fma temelli T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi modeli yerine ortodoks olarak kabul edilen politikalara h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce ucuz kaynakla \u00fcretimin desteklendi\u011fi ifade edilirken, yeni politikada pahal\u0131 kaynakla i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim durdurulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in son derece memnuniyet verici. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc onlara daha y\u00fcksek faiz alma f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 veren bir modele ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB, daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011fu piyasan\u0131n baz\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerince s\u00f6ylenen ve piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketlerinden bile daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentisini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131ktan sonra 1 ay i\u00e7erisinde y\u0131l sonu hedefi hemen yakalan\u0131verdi. B\u00f6ylece faizlerde ve ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket de ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu. \u0130lgin\u00e7 olan, bat\u0131n\u0131n istedi\u011fi kurallarla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir ekonomi y\u00f6netimi gelmesine ra\u011fmen TL\u2019nin anormal bir \u015fekilde kabinenin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn y\u00fczde 9, Haziran 2023\u2019te de y\u00fczde 30 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi tam bir \u2018case study\u2019 olarak tarihe ge\u00e7ti. Yabanc\u0131, de\u011fi\u015fimi s\u0131cak kar\u015f\u0131larken b\u00f6yle bir kur hareketi taban tabana ters idi. Ancak nedeni konusunda herhangi bir soru\u015fturma yap\u0131lmad\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YABANCI KURULU\u015eLARIN YORUMLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Zaman ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e rating kurulu\u015flar\u0131 notu y\u00fckseltmese de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerle oynayarak veya memnuniyetlerini ifade ederken, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131 da olumlu a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu. Ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 ne gelen var ne giden diyebilece\u011fimiz kadar az yabanc\u0131 i\u015flem de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Son zamanlarda gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda, TL faizinin cazip seviyelere gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum global ekonomik ortam m\u00fcsait oldu\u011fu takdirde, en az\u0131ndan s\u0131cak paran\u0131n TL pozisyon alma ihtimalini de art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim son beklentilere\u2026 Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyonun may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 73.5 ile zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 42.5\u2019e gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini bildirdi. \u201cOcak ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (varsay\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 40), hizmet enflasyonundaki yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k ve OVP\u2019de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere potansiyel olarak daha y\u00fcksek kamu harcamalar\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri ge\u00e7ene kadar enflasyon \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapan Morgan Stanley, olumlu baz etkilerinin 2024\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda itibaren devreye girece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u201cPolitika faizinin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 40\u2019a ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve y\u0131lsonuna kadar o seviyede devam etmesi ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ko\u015fulu ile man\u015fet enflasyonun 2024 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 42.5\u2019e gerilemesi ve reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3.5 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz\u201d ifadelerini kuland\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eINA DEVAM<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu beklenti, TCMB enflasyon raporuyla da \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyonda May\u0131s 2024\u2019e kadar art\u0131\u015f devam edecek ve y\u00fczde 70\u2019lerin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra da baz etkisi nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu durumda faizlerde de May\u0131s 2024\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu olmaz. Aksine art\u0131r\u0131mlar devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Societe Generale analistleri, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda TCMB\u2019nin 250 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla politika faizini y\u00fczde 37.50\u2019ye, y\u0131l sonunda ise y\u00fczde 40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi tahminimizle uyu\u015fan bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Morgan Stanley ise TCMB\u2019nin faizi 250 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 37.50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131, Nisan 2024\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 40\u2019a y\u00fckseltece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere ortak kanaat, faizlerin y\u00fckselmeye devam edece\u011fi ve TCMB politika faizinin y\u00fczde 40 seviyelerine gelece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. \u0130\u015fte bu noktadan sonra yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f yava\u015f d\u00f6vizden TL pozisyonu alarak, TL cinsi menkul k\u0131ymetlere girmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rme ihtimali art\u0131yor. Ancak temel ko\u015ful, global piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n elveri\u015fli olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu arada ratinglerin y\u00fckseltilerek yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyeye getirilmemesi, AB fonlar\u0131n\u0131n giri\u015fini engelliyor. Kald\u0131 ki, gri listeden \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek taraf\u0131ndan da ifade edildi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6zetle, yabanc\u0131 kurulu\u015flar olumlu yorumlar yapmaya devam ederken, yabanc\u0131 s\u0131cak paran\u0131n \u00fclkemize giri\u015fi i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz net bir ifade kullanm\u0131yorlar. Hatta yerel se\u00e7imleri g\u00f6zlemeyi tercih ettikleri g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc veriyorlar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bakal\u0131m bundan sonra ne gibi de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olacak. Hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"yabanci-yatirimcilarin-turkiyeye-bakis-acisi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1701032400PY7XHBZWoc85ZlB.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1817,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":45976,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":45850,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren, de\u011fi\u015fen Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 ve TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile birlikte ekonomi politikas\u0131nda lirala\u015fma temelli T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi modeli yerine ortodoks olarak kabul edilen politikalara h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce ucuz kaynakla \u00fcretimin desteklendi\u011fi ifade edilirken, yeni politikada pahal\u0131 kaynakla i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim durdurulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in son derece memnuniyet verici. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc onlara daha y\u00fcksek faiz alma f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 veren bir modele ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB, daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011fu piyasan\u0131n baz\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerince s\u00f6ylenen ve piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketlerinden bile daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentisini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131ktan sonra 1 ay i\u00e7erisinde y\u0131l sonu hedefi hemen yakalan\u0131verdi. B\u00f6ylece faizlerde ve ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket de ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu. \u0130lgin\u00e7 olan, bat\u0131n\u0131n istedi\u011fi kurallarla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir ekonomi y\u00f6netimi gelmesine ra\u011fmen TL\u2019nin anormal bir \u015fekilde kabinenin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn y\u00fczde 9, Haziran 2023\u2019te de y\u00fczde 30 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi tam bir \u2018case study\u2019 olarak tarihe ge\u00e7ti. Yabanc\u0131, de\u011fi\u015fimi s\u0131cak kar\u015f\u0131larken b\u00f6yle bir kur hareketi taban tabana ters idi. Ancak nedeni konusunda herhangi bir soru\u015fturma yap\u0131lmad\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YABANCI KURULU\u015eLARIN YORUMLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Zaman ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e rating kurulu\u015flar\u0131 notu y\u00fckseltmese de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerle oynayarak veya memnuniyetlerini ifade ederken, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131 da olumlu a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu. Ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 ne gelen var ne giden diyebilece\u011fimiz kadar az yabanc\u0131 i\u015flem de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Son zamanlarda gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda, TL faizinin cazip seviyelere gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum global ekonomik ortam m\u00fcsait oldu\u011fu takdirde, en az\u0131ndan s\u0131cak paran\u0131n TL pozisyon alma ihtimalini de art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim son beklentilere\u2026 Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyonun may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 73.5 ile zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 42.5\u2019e gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini bildirdi. \u201cOcak ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (varsay\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 40), hizmet enflasyonundaki yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k ve OVP\u2019de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere potansiyel olarak daha y\u00fcksek kamu harcamalar\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri ge\u00e7ene kadar enflasyon \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapan Morgan Stanley, olumlu baz etkilerinin 2024\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda itibaren devreye girece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u201cPolitika faizinin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 40\u2019a ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve y\u0131lsonuna kadar o seviyede devam etmesi ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ko\u015fulu ile man\u015fet enflasyonun 2024 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 42.5\u2019e gerilemesi ve reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3.5 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz\u201d ifadelerini kuland\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eINA DEVAM<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu beklenti, TCMB enflasyon raporuyla da \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyonda May\u0131s 2024\u2019e kadar art\u0131\u015f devam edecek ve y\u00fczde 70\u2019lerin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra da baz etkisi nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu durumda faizlerde de May\u0131s 2024\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu olmaz. Aksine art\u0131r\u0131mlar devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Societe Generale analistleri, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda TCMB\u2019nin 250 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla politika faizini y\u00fczde 37.50\u2019ye, y\u0131l sonunda ise y\u00fczde 40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi tahminimizle uyu\u015fan bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Morgan Stanley ise TCMB\u2019nin faizi 250 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 37.50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131, Nisan 2024\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 40\u2019a y\u00fckseltece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere ortak kanaat, faizlerin y\u00fckselmeye devam edece\u011fi ve TCMB politika faizinin y\u00fczde 40 seviyelerine gelece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. \u0130\u015fte bu noktadan sonra yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f yava\u015f d\u00f6vizden TL pozisyonu alarak, TL cinsi menkul k\u0131ymetlere girmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rme ihtimali art\u0131yor. Ancak temel ko\u015ful, global piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n elveri\u015fli olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu arada ratinglerin y\u00fckseltilerek yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyeye getirilmemesi, AB fonlar\u0131n\u0131n giri\u015fini engelliyor. Kald\u0131 ki, gri listeden \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek taraf\u0131ndan da ifade edildi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6zetle, yabanc\u0131 kurulu\u015flar olumlu yorumlar yapmaya devam ederken, yabanc\u0131 s\u0131cak paran\u0131n \u00fclkemize giri\u015fi i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz net bir ifade kullanm\u0131yorlar. Hatta yerel se\u00e7imleri g\u00f6zlemeyi tercih ettikleri g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc veriyorlar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bakal\u0131m bundan sonra ne gibi de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olacak. Hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"yabanci-yatirimcilarin-turkiyeye-bakis-acisi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1701032400PY7XHBZWoc85ZlB.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1701032400PY7XHBZWoc85ZlB.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1817,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}