{"status":true,"post":{"id":21661,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:10:47","created_at":"2020-03-19T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:10:47.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21661,"is_featured":0,"title":"Vir\u00fcs, k\u00fcresel durgunluk ve T\u00fcrkiye","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son bir ayda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7 geli\u015fme, Kovid-19 isimli koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi etkileme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc dramatik oranda de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 geli\u015fmeyi \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn ba\u015fta \u0130talya olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkede \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 yay\u0131lmas\u0131<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda petrolde ya\u015fanan fiyat sava\u015f\u0131<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Finans piyasalar\u0131nda varl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131ran a\u00e7\u0131klamalar (Fed\u2019in ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplant\u0131larla faizi iki kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi gibi). <\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 2.5\u2019\u0130N ALTINDA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130lk birka\u00e7 hafta vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerini etkileyerek bir arz \u015fokuna neden olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyordu. Etkinin kontrol edilebilir seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Ancak, son geli\u015fmeler tedirginli\u011fi ve pani\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok u\u00e7ak seferinin durdurulmas\u0131 ve sosyal hayat\u0131n seyrekle\u015fmesi ticari hayat\u0131 daraltt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak vir\u00fcs, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi bir talep \u015fokuna ve finansal \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> K\u00fcresel ekonomi, 2009\u2019dan sonra yeni bir durgunlu\u011fa do\u011fru ba\u015f a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gidiyor. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi art\u0131k kesin gibi. Ne kadar ekonomik \u00f6nlem al\u0131n\u0131rsa al\u0131ns\u0131n, ekonomilerde belli bir hasar olu\u015ftu. Ortaya konacak ak\u0131ll\u0131 ve etkin politikalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ancak bu y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ve 2021\u2019de al\u0131nabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>UMUTLARI ARTTIRAN GEL\u0130\u015eMELER<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Umutlar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 iki geli\u015fme var: \u00c7in\u2019de vir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u0131smen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve \u00fclkelerin para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlayarak maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokmalar\u0131. Ancak, bunlar 2020\u2019nin kay\u0131p bir y\u0131l olabilece\u011fi ihtimalini azaltmaya yetmeyecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda, bu vir\u00fcs\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine negatif ve pozitif olas\u0131 etkilerinin olabilece\u011fini anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. \u0130brenin 2020 i\u00e7in negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. K\u00fcresel ekonominin derinden sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zamanda, hele ki en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik partnerimiz Avrupa ile etkile\u015fimin durma noktas\u0131na geldi\u011fi bir a\u015famada, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin negatif etkilenmemesi s\u00f6z konusu olamaz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>T\u00dcRK\u0130YE \u0130\u00c7\u0130N GEREKL\u0130 ADIMLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine k\u0131sa vadeli etkileri asgari d\u00fczeyde tutmak i\u00e7in reel sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131 kabaca \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ayakta kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ilave kredi limitlerinin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve baz\u0131 mevcut kredilerin \u00f6denmesinin ise belli bir s\u00fcre ertelenmesi<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Nisan-haziran d\u00f6neminde temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fen \u015firketlerin kredi siciline m\u00fccbir sebep yaz\u0131lmas\u0131<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs krizinden do\u011frudan etkilenen 10 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn vergi \u00f6demelerinin ertelenmesi <\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin artmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kamunun \u015firketlere sundu\u011fu d\u00fczenleyici olanaklar\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi<\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u0131sa vadeli te\u015fvik ve canland\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 kamu maliyesine y\u00fck getirecektir. Orta vadede bunun nas\u0131l finanse edilece\u011fi meselesi var. Bununla birlikte vir\u00fcsten sonra k\u00fcresel ekonomik yap\u0131 ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ge\u00e7ecek. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimlerin neticesinde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel boyuttaki konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in at\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken uzun vadeli ad\u0131mlar olacak. Bunlar \u015fu an\u0131n konular\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu politikalar\u0131 konu\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nce ortal\u0131\u011f\u0131n sakinle\u015fmesi gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"virus-kuresel-durgunluk-ve-turkiye","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Vir\u00fcs, k\u00fcresel durgunluk ve T\u00fcrkiye","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1093,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21760,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21661,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Vir\u00fcs, k\u00fcresel durgunluk ve T\u00fcrkiye","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son bir ayda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7 geli\u015fme, Kovid-19 isimli koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi etkileme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc dramatik oranda de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 geli\u015fmeyi \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn ba\u015fta \u0130talya olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkede \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 yay\u0131lmas\u0131<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda petrolde ya\u015fanan fiyat sava\u015f\u0131<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Finans piyasalar\u0131nda varl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131ran a\u00e7\u0131klamalar (Fed\u2019in ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplant\u0131larla faizi iki kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi gibi). <\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 2.5\u2019\u0130N ALTINDA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130lk birka\u00e7 hafta vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerini etkileyerek bir arz \u015fokuna neden olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyordu. Etkinin kontrol edilebilir seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Ancak, son geli\u015fmeler tedirginli\u011fi ve pani\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok u\u00e7ak seferinin durdurulmas\u0131 ve sosyal hayat\u0131n seyrekle\u015fmesi ticari hayat\u0131 daraltt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak vir\u00fcs, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi bir talep \u015fokuna ve finansal \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> K\u00fcresel ekonomi, 2009\u2019dan sonra yeni bir durgunlu\u011fa do\u011fru ba\u015f a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gidiyor. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi art\u0131k kesin gibi. Ne kadar ekonomik \u00f6nlem al\u0131n\u0131rsa al\u0131ns\u0131n, ekonomilerde belli bir hasar olu\u015ftu. Ortaya konacak ak\u0131ll\u0131 ve etkin politikalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ancak bu y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ve 2021\u2019de al\u0131nabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>UMUTLARI ARTTIRAN GEL\u0130\u015eMELER<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Umutlar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 iki geli\u015fme var: \u00c7in\u2019de vir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u0131smen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve \u00fclkelerin para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlayarak maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokmalar\u0131. Ancak, bunlar 2020\u2019nin kay\u0131p bir y\u0131l olabilece\u011fi ihtimalini azaltmaya yetmeyecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda, bu vir\u00fcs\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine negatif ve pozitif olas\u0131 etkilerinin olabilece\u011fini anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. \u0130brenin 2020 i\u00e7in negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. K\u00fcresel ekonominin derinden sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zamanda, hele ki en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik partnerimiz Avrupa ile etkile\u015fimin durma noktas\u0131na geldi\u011fi bir a\u015famada, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin negatif etkilenmemesi s\u00f6z konusu olamaz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>T\u00dcRK\u0130YE \u0130\u00c7\u0130N GEREKL\u0130 ADIMLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine k\u0131sa vadeli etkileri asgari d\u00fczeyde tutmak i\u00e7in reel sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131 kabaca \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ayakta kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ilave kredi limitlerinin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve baz\u0131 mevcut kredilerin \u00f6denmesinin ise belli bir s\u00fcre ertelenmesi<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Nisan-haziran d\u00f6neminde temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fen \u015firketlerin kredi siciline m\u00fccbir sebep yaz\u0131lmas\u0131<\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs krizinden do\u011frudan etkilenen 10 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn vergi \u00f6demelerinin ertelenmesi <\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin artmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kamunun \u015firketlere sundu\u011fu d\u00fczenleyici olanaklar\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi<\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u0131sa vadeli te\u015fvik ve canland\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 kamu maliyesine y\u00fck getirecektir. Orta vadede bunun nas\u0131l finanse edilece\u011fi meselesi var. Bununla birlikte vir\u00fcsten sonra k\u00fcresel ekonomik yap\u0131 ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ge\u00e7ecek. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimlerin neticesinde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel boyuttaki konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in at\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken uzun vadeli ad\u0131mlar olacak. Bunlar \u015fu an\u0131n konular\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu politikalar\u0131 konu\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nce ortal\u0131\u011f\u0131n sakinle\u015fmesi gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"virus-kuresel-durgunluk-ve-turkiye","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Vir\u00fcs, k\u00fcresel durgunluk ve T\u00fcrkiye","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1093,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}