Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr
<\/p>
T\u00fcrkiye, 2020\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 4.5 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6steren oldu. \u00c7in\u2019den ABD\u2019ye, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den Almanya\u2019ya kadar neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn G20 \u00fclkeleri y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ve\/veya bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fad\u0131. Asl\u0131nda Avrupa ve Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131ndaki \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn ekonomiye ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131malar\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyrekte g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn g\u00f6lgesi bile bir\u00e7ok ekonomiyi ilk \u00e7eyrekten yere sermeye yetti.<\/p>
Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi, 2020\u2019nin geneline dair bir ipucu vermeyecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndaki performans, normal \u015fartlarda di\u011fer aylara y\u00f6nelik ilk sinyalleri vermesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli kabul edilir. Ancak, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik ko\u015fullarda meydana getirdi\u011fi zorluklardan dolay\u0131 bu y\u0131l di\u011ferlerinden farkl\u0131 olacak. Yine de bu pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme iki a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011ferli. Birincisi, di\u011fer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla daha moralli olaca\u011f\u0131z. Psikoloji, ekonomide her zaman i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. \u0130kincisi, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde yakalanan performans, gelecek \u00e7eyreklerde gelmesi kuvvetle muhtemel negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyerek b\u00f6ylesi \u015fok edici bir y\u0131l\u0131 makul say\u0131labilecek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 ile kapatmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>
Di\u011fer G20 \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde sert bir daralma ya\u015fayacak. Nisan ay\u0131, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 ile m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in uygulamaya sokulan karantina, soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kma yasa\u011f\u0131 ve baz\u0131 i\u015fyerlerinin kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli sosyal izolasyon \u00f6nlemlerinin en s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 zirve d\u00f6nemdir. Ekonomik aktivitenin dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ay, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle nisan olacak. <\/p>
Nisandan sonra yava\u015f da olsa bir toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerde de bu durum kendini hissettiriyor. \u0130SO \u0130malat PMI Endeksi, may\u0131sta bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 7.5 puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f kaydederek 40.9 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Bloomberg HT T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12.44 oran\u0131nda toparlanma ya\u015fad\u0131. Bu k\u0131p\u0131rdanma, ikinci \u00e7eyrek daralmas\u0131n\u0131 belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde yumu\u015fatacak. Ancak, negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. <\/p>
Normalle\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n biraz daha iyi gelmesi bekleniyor. Yine de ekonominin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok erken. Yeni normalle eskiyi kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak \u00e7ok do\u011fru de\u011fil. Yaz aylar\u0131nda ekonomik aktivitenin s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 biraz artacak ama tam olarak \u0131s\u0131nmayacak. Salg\u0131n\u0131n sonbahar aylar\u0131nda izleyece\u011fi seyre g\u00f6re belki baz\u0131 sosyal izolasyon \u00f6nlemleri tekrardan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir. Salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk dalgas\u0131nda elde edilen deneyim, hastal\u0131kla m\u00fccadele konusunda daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Bu, ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemli bir kazan\u0131m olacak. Salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadelede \u015fimdiye kadar g\u00f6sterdi\u011fimiz ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 performans\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara da ta\u015f\u0131yabilirsek, T\u00fcrkiye G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmaya devam eder.
\u015eirketlerimizin di\u011fer G20 \u00fclkelerindeki \u015firketlere k\u0131yasla belki finansal a\u00e7\u0131dan olmasa da zorluklarla m\u00fccadele etme ve yeni s\u00fcre\u00e7lere kendini adapte etme becerisi anlam\u0131nda baz\u0131 kritik avantajlara sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. 2020\u2019yi ne kadar az hasarla atlatabilirsek, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin koronavir\u00fcs sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik ve siyasi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kayda de\u011fer oranlarda art\u0131rma ihtimali o kadar y\u00fckselir.<\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"turkiye-g20yi-solladi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"T\u00fcrkiye G20\u2019yi sollad\u0131","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1127,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":22421,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22322,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"T\u00fcrkiye G20\u2019yi sollad\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t
Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr
<\/p>
T\u00fcrkiye, 2020\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 4.5 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6steren oldu. \u00c7in\u2019den ABD\u2019ye, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den Almanya\u2019ya kadar neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn G20 \u00fclkeleri y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ve\/veya bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fad\u0131. Asl\u0131nda Avrupa ve Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131ndaki \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn ekonomiye ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131malar\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyrekte g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn g\u00f6lgesi bile bir\u00e7ok ekonomiyi ilk \u00e7eyrekten yere sermeye yetti.<\/p>
Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi, 2020\u2019nin geneline dair bir ipucu vermeyecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndaki performans, normal \u015fartlarda di\u011fer aylara y\u00f6nelik ilk sinyalleri vermesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli kabul edilir. Ancak, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik ko\u015fullarda meydana getirdi\u011fi zorluklardan dolay\u0131 bu y\u0131l di\u011ferlerinden farkl\u0131 olacak. Yine de bu pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme iki a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011ferli. Birincisi, di\u011fer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla daha moralli olaca\u011f\u0131z. Psikoloji, ekonomide her zaman i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. \u0130kincisi, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde yakalanan performans, gelecek \u00e7eyreklerde gelmesi kuvvetle muhtemel negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyerek b\u00f6ylesi \u015fok edici bir y\u0131l\u0131 makul say\u0131labilecek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 ile kapatmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>
Di\u011fer G20 \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde sert bir daralma ya\u015fayacak. Nisan ay\u0131, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 ile m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in uygulamaya sokulan karantina, soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kma yasa\u011f\u0131 ve baz\u0131 i\u015fyerlerinin kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli sosyal izolasyon \u00f6nlemlerinin en s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 zirve d\u00f6nemdir. Ekonomik aktivitenin dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ay, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle nisan olacak. <\/p>
Nisandan sonra yava\u015f da olsa bir toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerde de bu durum kendini hissettiriyor. \u0130SO \u0130malat PMI Endeksi, may\u0131sta bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 7.5 puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f kaydederek 40.9 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Bloomberg HT T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12.44 oran\u0131nda toparlanma ya\u015fad\u0131. Bu k\u0131p\u0131rdanma, ikinci \u00e7eyrek daralmas\u0131n\u0131 belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde yumu\u015fatacak. Ancak, negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. <\/p>
Normalle\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n biraz daha iyi gelmesi bekleniyor. Yine de ekonominin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok erken. Yeni normalle eskiyi kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak \u00e7ok do\u011fru de\u011fil. Yaz aylar\u0131nda ekonomik aktivitenin s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 biraz artacak ama tam olarak \u0131s\u0131nmayacak. Salg\u0131n\u0131n sonbahar aylar\u0131nda izleyece\u011fi seyre g\u00f6re belki baz\u0131 sosyal izolasyon \u00f6nlemleri tekrardan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir. Salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk dalgas\u0131nda elde edilen deneyim, hastal\u0131kla m\u00fccadele konusunda daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Bu, ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemli bir kazan\u0131m olacak. Salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadelede \u015fimdiye kadar g\u00f6sterdi\u011fimiz ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 performans\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara da ta\u015f\u0131yabilirsek, T\u00fcrkiye G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmaya devam eder.
\u015eirketlerimizin di\u011fer G20 \u00fclkelerindeki \u015firketlere k\u0131yasla belki finansal a\u00e7\u0131dan olmasa da zorluklarla m\u00fccadele etme ve yeni s\u00fcre\u00e7lere kendini adapte etme becerisi anlam\u0131nda baz\u0131 kritik avantajlara sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. 2020\u2019yi ne kadar az hasarla atlatabilirsek, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin koronavir\u00fcs sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik ve siyasi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kayda de\u011fer oranlarda art\u0131rma ihtimali o kadar y\u00fckselir.<\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"turkiye-g20yi-solladi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"T\u00fcrkiye G20\u2019yi sollad\u0131","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1127,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}