{"status":true,"post":{"id":22411,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:16:59","created_at":"2020-07-09T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:16:59.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":22411,"is_featured":0,"title":"Toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131 ama riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

<\/strong><\/span>
Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc amac\u0131yla uygulanan izolasyonlar kald\u0131r\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak iktisadi faaliyetler de toparlanmaya ge\u00e7ti. Ancak ekonomide mevcut riskler de devam ediyor. Bir yandan Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ile m\u00fccadele devam edecekken, riskleri de iyi y\u00f6neterek sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir toparlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebiliriz.<\/span>
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1. EKONOM\u0130DE G\u00dcVEN ENDEKSLER\u0130 HIZLI GER\u0130 D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e YAPIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
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\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlere geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fcven ve beklentileri iyile\u015ftirdi. Ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksi may\u0131s ay\u0131nda 61.7 iken, haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 19.1 oran\u0131nda artarak 73.5 de\u011ferine y\u00fckseldi. Ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksindeki art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcketici, reel kesim (imalat sanayi), hizmet, perakende ticaret ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endekslerindeki art\u0131\u015flardan kaynakland\u0131. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5.2 oran\u0131nda artarak 62.6 de\u011ferini, reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 22.2 oran\u0131nda artarak 89.8 de\u011ferini ald\u0131. \u0130ktisadi ve sosyal hayata geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ile reel kesim ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni artt\u0131.<\/span>
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2. SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130 \u0130\u00c7 S\u0130PAR\u0130\u015eLERDEK\u0130 CANLANMAYA BA\u011eLI OLARAK ARTIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
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Sanayi faaliyetlerinde haziran ay\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda 40.9 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra haziran ay\u0131nda 53.9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. B\u00f6ylece endeks \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan beri ilk kez e\u015fik de\u011fer 50.0\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131larak normale yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, haziranda imalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fcretim hacimlerini belirgin bir \u015fekilde art\u0131rmas\u0131na olanak sa\u011flad\u0131. Yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan sipari\u015flerde art\u0131lar oldu. B\u00f6ylece sanayide mart ve nisan ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yerini tekrar toparlanmaya b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/span>
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3. SANAY\u0130 DI\u015eI SEKT\u00d6RLERDE DE TOPARLANMA BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span>
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Hizmetler, perakende ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6rlerinde de i\u015fe geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler ile mevcut i\u015f seviyeleri y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin al\u0131nan yeni i\u015f sipari\u015fleri ise \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Kredi kart\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan perakende harcamalar may\u0131s ay\u0131nda Covid-19 \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme yakla\u015ft\u0131. Konut ve otomotiv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6sterdi. Otomotiv pazar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 66.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/span>
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4. KRED\u0130 GEN\u0130\u015eLEMES\u0130 TOPARLANMAYI HIZLANDIRDI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Haziran ay\u0131ndaki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmada kredi geni\u015flemesinin b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131s\u0131 bulunuyor. Ticari ve t\u00fcketici kredileri toparlanmaya doping etkisi yaratt\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak iktisadi faaliyetlerde haziran ay\u0131nda toparlanma beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Buna ra\u011fmen iktisadi faaliyet seviyeleri hen\u00fcz Covid-19 \u00f6ncesinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda.<\/span>
<\/span>
5. HIZLI TOPARLANMA ENFLASYONDA Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130\u015eE YOL A\u00c7TI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcketici enflasyonu haziranda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.13 artarken y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 12.62\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 11.39 oldu. B\u00f6ylece haziran ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketici enflasyonu art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon da y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 10.32\u2019den y\u00fczde 11.64\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1.60 d\u00fc\u015ferken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 12.93 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. \u00dcretici fiyat endeksi \u00dcFE\u2019de ise y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f 6.17 oldu. Toparlanman\u0131n beklentilerin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6zellikle t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 genele yay\u0131lan bir art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine girdi.<\/span>
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6. D\u00d6V\u0130Z REZERVLER\u0130 VE T\u00dcRK L\u0130RASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Katar ile yap\u0131lan swap anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile br\u00fct rezervlerde bir art\u0131\u015f oldu. Ancak bir ay sonra br\u00fct d\u00f6viz rezervleri anla\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyesine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Net rezervleri ise negatif ve geriliyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"toparlanma-basladi-ama-riskler-suruyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131 ama riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1084,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":22510,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22411,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131 ama riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

<\/strong><\/span>
Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc amac\u0131yla uygulanan izolasyonlar kald\u0131r\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak iktisadi faaliyetler de toparlanmaya ge\u00e7ti. Ancak ekonomide mevcut riskler de devam ediyor. Bir yandan Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ile m\u00fccadele devam edecekken, riskleri de iyi y\u00f6neterek sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir toparlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebiliriz.<\/span>
<\/span>
1. EKONOM\u0130DE G\u00dcVEN ENDEKSLER\u0130 HIZLI GER\u0130 D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e YAPIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130ktisadi faaliyetlere geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fcven ve beklentileri iyile\u015ftirdi. Ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksi may\u0131s ay\u0131nda 61.7 iken, haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 19.1 oran\u0131nda artarak 73.5 de\u011ferine y\u00fckseldi. Ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksindeki art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcketici, reel kesim (imalat sanayi), hizmet, perakende ticaret ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endekslerindeki art\u0131\u015flardan kaynakland\u0131. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5.2 oran\u0131nda artarak 62.6 de\u011ferini, reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 22.2 oran\u0131nda artarak 89.8 de\u011ferini ald\u0131. \u0130ktisadi ve sosyal hayata geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ile reel kesim ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni artt\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
2. SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130 \u0130\u00c7 S\u0130PAR\u0130\u015eLERDEK\u0130 CANLANMAYA BA\u011eLI OLARAK ARTIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Sanayi faaliyetlerinde haziran ay\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda 40.9 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra haziran ay\u0131nda 53.9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. B\u00f6ylece endeks \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan beri ilk kez e\u015fik de\u011fer 50.0\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131larak normale yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, haziranda imalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fcretim hacimlerini belirgin bir \u015fekilde art\u0131rmas\u0131na olanak sa\u011flad\u0131. Yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan sipari\u015flerde art\u0131lar oldu. B\u00f6ylece sanayide mart ve nisan ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yerini tekrar toparlanmaya b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/span>
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3. SANAY\u0130 DI\u015eI SEKT\u00d6RLERDE DE TOPARLANMA BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Hizmetler, perakende ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6rlerinde de i\u015fe geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler ile mevcut i\u015f seviyeleri y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin al\u0131nan yeni i\u015f sipari\u015fleri ise \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Kredi kart\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan perakende harcamalar may\u0131s ay\u0131nda Covid-19 \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme yakla\u015ft\u0131. Konut ve otomotiv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6sterdi. Otomotiv pazar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 66.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/span>
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4. KRED\u0130 GEN\u0130\u015eLEMES\u0130 TOPARLANMAYI HIZLANDIRDI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Haziran ay\u0131ndaki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmada kredi geni\u015flemesinin b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131s\u0131 bulunuyor. Ticari ve t\u00fcketici kredileri toparlanmaya doping etkisi yaratt\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak iktisadi faaliyetlerde haziran ay\u0131nda toparlanma beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Buna ra\u011fmen iktisadi faaliyet seviyeleri hen\u00fcz Covid-19 \u00f6ncesinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda.<\/span>
<\/span>
5. HIZLI TOPARLANMA ENFLASYONDA Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130\u015eE YOL A\u00c7TI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcketici enflasyonu haziranda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.13 artarken y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 12.62\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 11.39 oldu. B\u00f6ylece haziran ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketici enflasyonu art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon da y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 10.32\u2019den y\u00fczde 11.64\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1.60 d\u00fc\u015ferken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 12.93 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. \u00dcretici fiyat endeksi \u00dcFE\u2019de ise y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f 6.17 oldu. Toparlanman\u0131n beklentilerin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6zellikle t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 genele yay\u0131lan bir art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine girdi.<\/span>
<\/span>
6. D\u00d6V\u0130Z REZERVLER\u0130 VE T\u00dcRK L\u0130RASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Katar ile yap\u0131lan swap anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile br\u00fct rezervlerde bir art\u0131\u015f oldu. Ancak bir ay sonra br\u00fct d\u00f6viz rezervleri anla\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyesine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Net rezervleri ise negatif ve geriliyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"toparlanma-basladi-ama-riskler-suruyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131 ama riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1084,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}