{"status":true,"post":{"id":13639,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:30:22","created_at":"2016-05-01T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:30:22.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":13639,"is_featured":0,"title":"TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimleri devam edecek","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Murat \u00c7etinkaya, ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7ok iyi haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stererek, finans piyasas\u0131 profesyonellerinden tam not ald\u0131. Uzmanlar, \u00c7etinkaya\u2019n\u0131n mesajlar\u0131 ve de\u011ferlendirmelerinden faiz indirimlerinin devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde sinyal ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyorlar. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin 20 Nisan\u2019daki Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim karar\u0131, piyasa beklentilerini teyit etti ve ilgin\u00e7tir, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta dolar-TL kurunun, beklenenin aksine, 2.84-2.80 TL band\u0131nda hareket etti\u011fine \u015fahit olduk. Sonras\u0131nda, dolar kurunda beklenen normalle\u015fme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve kur 2.86-2.84 TL band\u0131na oturdu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ancak, hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, mevcut d\u00f6viz kuru d\u00fczeyini bir sonraki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan \u00f6nce, bir \u2018dinlenme seviyesi\u2019 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de ifade etmemiz gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda 160 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerini deneyen bankalardaki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sonunda 155.8 milyar dolara, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ocak ay\u0131 sonunda ise 149.7 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, mart ay\u0131nda yeniden 160 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, 15 Nisan itibariyle 162.4 milyar dolara dayanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu rakam, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda sadece 44.3 milyar dolar olan, 2009 ile 2011 aras\u0131 100 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda dola\u015fan bankalardaki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni bir rekor anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2.5 AYDA 4 M\u0130LYAR DOLARI GE\u00c7EN NET G\u0130R\u0130\u015e<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve bilhassa, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim-kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde, uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n raporlar\u0131nda 3.3, hatta 3.5 TL d\u00fczeyleri 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in telaffuz edilmi\u015fken, y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en iyi performans ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren para birimlerinden birisi olmas\u0131, bu defa net sermaye giri\u015fini g\u00fcndeme getirdi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6y pozisyonlar\u0131nda (hisse senedi, tahvil, repo) 8.5 milyar dolar gibi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na konu olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, ocak ay\u0131nda 500 milyon dolara yak\u0131n net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 devam ederek 13 ayda 9 milyar dolarl\u0131k net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fken, 1 \u015eubat\u2019tan 15 Nisan\u2019a kadar ki d\u00f6nemde, tersine, 4.2 milyar dolara yak\u0131n net sermaye giri\u015fine konu olmas\u0131, dolar-TL kurunun 2.80 TL d\u00fczeyine do\u011fru gev\u015femesini izah ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda \u2018g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f kuru\u2019 olarak 3.05 TL\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6ren ve Cumhuriyet tarihi rekor d\u00fczeylerini test eden dolar kuru, 15 Ocak\u2019ta da 3.05 TL\u2019ye yak\u0131n bir \u2018g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2019, 20 Ocak\u2019ta da 3.04 TL civar\u0131nda bir \u2018g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2019 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti-rerek, kur d\u00fczeyinde rekora yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Dolar kurunda 3 ayda 3.05 TL\u2019den 2.80 TL\u2019ye yak\u0131n bir seviyeye geldik.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>IMF\u2019DEN HEM UYARI HEM TAKD\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131 sonuna kadar g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015f olan 9 milyar dolara yak\u0131n net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklanan risk, IMF raporuna da konu olmu\u015f. IMF uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 h\u0131zlanman\u0131n T\u00fcrk ekonomisi i\u00e7in risk te\u015fkil etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu ifadeler, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131n\u0131n 162 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 da teyit ediyor. Demek ki, T\u00fcrk halk\u0131, Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den yeniden net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi ve dolar-TL kurunun yeniden 3 TL\u2019yi a\u015fabilece\u011fi riskini hayli kuvvetli g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Nitekim, IMF raporunda da, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n <\/span><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olarak kalmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u015faret edilmi\u015f. Bu nedenle, yap\u0131sal nedenlerle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden i\u00e7 tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak ve d\u0131\u015f dengesizlikleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek suretiyle dengelenmesinin T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi\u2019nde \u00f6nceli\u011fini korudu\u011fu ifadelerine raporda yer verilmi\u015f. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, bu ba\u011flamda iddial\u0131 bir reform program\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edilen raporda tasarruflar\u0131, verimlili\u011fi ve kad\u0131n i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefleyen reformlara \u00f6ncelik tan\u0131nmas\u0131 tavsiyesinde bulunulmu\u015f. Raporda, ayr\u0131ca IMF Direkt\u00f6rleri\u2019nin T\u00fcrk yetkililerine 2.5 milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n Suriyeli s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131ya ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ve onlar\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na entegre etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcrlerini iletti\u011fi de belirtilmi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmbnin-faiz-indirimleri-devam-edecek","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimleri devam edecek","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":128,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":13738,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":13639,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimleri devam edecek","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Murat \u00c7etinkaya, ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7ok iyi haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stererek, finans piyasas\u0131 profesyonellerinden tam not ald\u0131. Uzmanlar, \u00c7etinkaya\u2019n\u0131n mesajlar\u0131 ve de\u011ferlendirmelerinden faiz indirimlerinin devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde sinyal ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyorlar. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin 20 Nisan\u2019daki Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim karar\u0131, piyasa beklentilerini teyit etti ve ilgin\u00e7tir, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta dolar-TL kurunun, beklenenin aksine, 2.84-2.80 TL band\u0131nda hareket etti\u011fine \u015fahit olduk. Sonras\u0131nda, dolar kurunda beklenen normalle\u015fme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve kur 2.86-2.84 TL band\u0131na oturdu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ancak, hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, mevcut d\u00f6viz kuru d\u00fczeyini bir sonraki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan \u00f6nce, bir \u2018dinlenme seviyesi\u2019 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de ifade etmemiz gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda 160 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerini deneyen bankalardaki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sonunda 155.8 milyar dolara, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ocak ay\u0131 sonunda ise 149.7 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, mart ay\u0131nda yeniden 160 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, 15 Nisan itibariyle 162.4 milyar dolara dayanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu rakam, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda sadece 44.3 milyar dolar olan, 2009 ile 2011 aras\u0131 100 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda dola\u015fan bankalardaki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni bir rekor anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2.5 AYDA 4 M\u0130LYAR DOLARI GE\u00c7EN NET G\u0130R\u0130\u015e<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve bilhassa, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim-kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde, uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n raporlar\u0131nda 3.3, hatta 3.5 TL d\u00fczeyleri 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in telaffuz edilmi\u015fken, y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en iyi performans ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren para birimlerinden birisi olmas\u0131, bu defa net sermaye giri\u015fini g\u00fcndeme getirdi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6y pozisyonlar\u0131nda (hisse senedi, tahvil, repo) 8.5 milyar dolar gibi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na konu olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, ocak ay\u0131nda 500 milyon dolara yak\u0131n net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 devam ederek 13 ayda 9 milyar dolarl\u0131k net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fken, 1 \u015eubat\u2019tan 15 Nisan\u2019a kadar ki d\u00f6nemde, tersine, 4.2 milyar dolara yak\u0131n net sermaye giri\u015fine konu olmas\u0131, dolar-TL kurunun 2.80 TL d\u00fczeyine do\u011fru gev\u015femesini izah ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda \u2018g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f kuru\u2019 olarak 3.05 TL\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6ren ve Cumhuriyet tarihi rekor d\u00fczeylerini test eden dolar kuru, 15 Ocak\u2019ta da 3.05 TL\u2019ye yak\u0131n bir \u2018g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2019, 20 Ocak\u2019ta da 3.04 TL civar\u0131nda bir \u2018g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2019 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti-rerek, kur d\u00fczeyinde rekora yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Dolar kurunda 3 ayda 3.05 TL\u2019den 2.80 TL\u2019ye yak\u0131n bir seviyeye geldik.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>IMF\u2019DEN HEM UYARI HEM TAKD\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131 sonuna kadar g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015f olan 9 milyar dolara yak\u0131n net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklanan risk, IMF raporuna da konu olmu\u015f. IMF uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 h\u0131zlanman\u0131n T\u00fcrk ekonomisi i\u00e7in risk te\u015fkil etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu ifadeler, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131n\u0131n 162 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 da teyit ediyor. Demek ki, T\u00fcrk halk\u0131, Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den yeniden net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi ve dolar-TL kurunun yeniden 3 TL\u2019yi a\u015fabilece\u011fi riskini hayli kuvvetli g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Nitekim, IMF raporunda da, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n <\/span><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olarak kalmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u015faret edilmi\u015f. Bu nedenle, yap\u0131sal nedenlerle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden i\u00e7 tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak ve d\u0131\u015f dengesizlikleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek suretiyle dengelenmesinin T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi\u2019nde \u00f6nceli\u011fini korudu\u011fu ifadelerine raporda yer verilmi\u015f. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, bu ba\u011flamda iddial\u0131 bir reform program\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edilen raporda tasarruflar\u0131, verimlili\u011fi ve kad\u0131n i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefleyen reformlara \u00f6ncelik tan\u0131nmas\u0131 tavsiyesinde bulunulmu\u015f. Raporda, ayr\u0131ca IMF Direkt\u00f6rleri\u2019nin T\u00fcrk yetkililerine 2.5 milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n Suriyeli s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131ya ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ve onlar\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na entegre etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcrlerini iletti\u011fi de belirtilmi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmbnin-faiz-indirimleri-devam-edecek","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimleri devam edecek","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":128,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}