{"status":true,"post":{"id":28689,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:48:56","created_at":"2021-09-30T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:48:56.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":28689,"is_featured":0,"title":"TCMB faiz karar\u0131 ve ekonomiye etkisi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TCMB, piyasan\u0131n genelinin beklentisinin aksine 1 hafta vadeli repo faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 100 puan indirerek faizi y\u00fczde 18 seviyesine indirdi. <\/span><\/p>

Bildi\u011finiz gibi TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131, daha \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda reel faize dikkat edilece\u011fi vurgusu yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Reel faiz, nominal yani a\u00e7\u0131klanan faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f halidir. Yani nominal faiz 10 iken, enflasyon 10 ise reel faiz s\u0131f\u0131r demektir.<\/span>
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TCMB\u2019nin daha \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, enflasyon artt\u0131k\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131klanan (nominal) faizlerin de art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekirdi. Oysa tam tersi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131, reel faiz seviyelerine dikkat edilece\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti. Reel faiz seviyeleri tasarruf sahibinin kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler. Getirisi yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde alternatif alanlara kayabilir. Bu durumda dolarizasyonun artmas\u0131 riski ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla piyasa kur hareketleri nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6remedi\u011finden fiyatlama yaparken kuru ona g\u00f6re ayarlar ve gereksiz enflasyonist fiyatlar olu\u015fur. Daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, bir bekleyip \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6reyim derken frene basm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/span>
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KRED\u0130LER\u0130N KAYNA\u011eINI ZORLAMAK DO\u011eRU MU?<\/strong><\/span>
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T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, enflasyonda yukar\u0131 e\u011filimin devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. En son a\u00e7\u0131klanan a\u011fustos enflasyon verisinde bir d\u00fc\u015fme s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildi. Ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1.12 artarken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 19.25 seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi. Tar\u0131msal girdi fiyat endeksi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.98, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 29.38 oran\u0131nda. Tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 24.69, ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.77 artm\u0131\u015fken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 30.81 artm\u0131\u015fken, belki de en \u00f6nemlisi yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2.77 artarak, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 45.52 seviyelerinde artm\u0131\u015fken, b\u00f6yle acelece faiz indirimi yaparak risk almak ger\u00e7ekten do\u011fru mu?<\/span>
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Sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 4.2 azal\u0131rken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 24.1\u2019den y\u00fczde 8.7 art\u0131\u015fa kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fken, faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ne kadar do\u011fru? Daha a\u00e7\u0131k ifade ile s\u00f6ylersek, mevduat sahibini alternatif kanallara kanalize ederek kredilerin kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu aralar zorlamak ne kadar do\u011fru? <\/span>
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Her mevduat \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, bankalar\u0131n daha az kredi verece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. Zaten s\u0131f\u0131r seviyelerinde olan reel faizi eksiye \u00e7evirdi\u011fimizde mevduat\u0131n d\u00f6vize, arsaya, binaya, dijital paralara vb. gitme riskini de art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oluruz. <\/span>
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DEVLET TAHV\u0130LLER\u0130NE GELEN SATI\u015eLAR<\/strong><\/span>
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S\u00f6z konusu faiz indiriminden sonra devlet tahvillerine gelen sat\u0131\u015flar ile piyasa faizleri y\u00fckselirken, nakde d\u00f6nen pozisyonlar\u0131n d\u00f6vize y\u00f6nelmesi de dolar\u0131 8.90 seviyelerine kadar getirerek, \u00f6nemli bir direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu. Devlet tahvili faizi y\u00fcksekken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 olarak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle mevduatta kal\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da bunu dikkate alacaklard\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte o zaman bankalar likidite azl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle kredi vermekte daha se\u00e7ici olabilirler. Yani dimyata pirince giderken eldeki bulgurdan olma riski erken bir faiz indirimi nedeniyle artt\u0131. Faiz indirimi piyasa taraf\u0131ndan istenen bir \u015fey olsayd\u0131 borsa ve \u00f6zellikle bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisse senetlerinde \u00f6nemli ralliler g\u00f6r\u00fcrd\u00fck. Oysa tamam\u0131 ciddi seviyelerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara geldi. \u00d6rne\u011fin Vak\u0131fbank hisse senedi <\/span>7 Ocak 2020 g\u00fcn\u00fc 7 TL\u2019nin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fken, yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu s\u0131ralarda i\u015flem fiyat\u0131 3.24 TL\u2019dir.<\/span>

Ayn\u0131 durum Halk Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. 8 A\u011fustos 2017 g\u00fcn\u00fc 14.91 seviyelerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 28 Eyl\u00fcl 2021 g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.25 TL olmu\u015ftur. Sistemi fazla zorlamak sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 firman\u0131n da nakit dengesine zarar verebilir. \u00d6zellikle eyl\u00fcl enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fcksek gelirse, o zaman negatif reel faizin ne kadar denge sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-faiz-karari-ve-ekonomiye-etkisi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB faiz karar\u0131 ve ekonomiye etkisi","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1131,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":28788,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":28689,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"TCMB faiz karar\u0131 ve ekonomiye etkisi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TCMB, piyasan\u0131n genelinin beklentisinin aksine 1 hafta vadeli repo faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 100 puan indirerek faizi y\u00fczde 18 seviyesine indirdi. <\/span><\/p>

Bildi\u011finiz gibi TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131, daha \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda reel faize dikkat edilece\u011fi vurgusu yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Reel faiz, nominal yani a\u00e7\u0131klanan faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f halidir. Yani nominal faiz 10 iken, enflasyon 10 ise reel faiz s\u0131f\u0131r demektir.<\/span>
<\/span>
TCMB\u2019nin daha \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, enflasyon artt\u0131k\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131klanan (nominal) faizlerin de art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekirdi. Oysa tam tersi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131, reel faiz seviyelerine dikkat edilece\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti. Reel faiz seviyeleri tasarruf sahibinin kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler. Getirisi yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde alternatif alanlara kayabilir. Bu durumda dolarizasyonun artmas\u0131 riski ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla piyasa kur hareketleri nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6remedi\u011finden fiyatlama yaparken kuru ona g\u00f6re ayarlar ve gereksiz enflasyonist fiyatlar olu\u015fur. Daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, bir bekleyip \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6reyim derken frene basm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/span>
<\/span>
KRED\u0130LER\u0130N KAYNA\u011eINI ZORLAMAK DO\u011eRU MU?<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, enflasyonda yukar\u0131 e\u011filimin devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. En son a\u00e7\u0131klanan a\u011fustos enflasyon verisinde bir d\u00fc\u015fme s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildi. Ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1.12 artarken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 19.25 seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi. Tar\u0131msal girdi fiyat endeksi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.98, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 29.38 oran\u0131nda. Tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 24.69, ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.77 artm\u0131\u015fken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 30.81 artm\u0131\u015fken, belki de en \u00f6nemlisi yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2.77 artarak, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 45.52 seviyelerinde artm\u0131\u015fken, b\u00f6yle acelece faiz indirimi yaparak risk almak ger\u00e7ekten do\u011fru mu?<\/span>
<\/span>
Sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 4.2 azal\u0131rken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 24.1\u2019den y\u00fczde 8.7 art\u0131\u015fa kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fken, faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ne kadar do\u011fru? Daha a\u00e7\u0131k ifade ile s\u00f6ylersek, mevduat sahibini alternatif kanallara kanalize ederek kredilerin kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu aralar zorlamak ne kadar do\u011fru? <\/span>
<\/span>
Her mevduat \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, bankalar\u0131n daha az kredi verece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. Zaten s\u0131f\u0131r seviyelerinde olan reel faizi eksiye \u00e7evirdi\u011fimizde mevduat\u0131n d\u00f6vize, arsaya, binaya, dijital paralara vb. gitme riskini de art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oluruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
DEVLET TAHV\u0130LLER\u0130NE GELEN SATI\u015eLAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
S\u00f6z konusu faiz indiriminden sonra devlet tahvillerine gelen sat\u0131\u015flar ile piyasa faizleri y\u00fckselirken, nakde d\u00f6nen pozisyonlar\u0131n d\u00f6vize y\u00f6nelmesi de dolar\u0131 8.90 seviyelerine kadar getirerek, \u00f6nemli bir direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu. Devlet tahvili faizi y\u00fcksekken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 olarak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle mevduatta kal\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z? Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da bunu dikkate alacaklard\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte o zaman bankalar likidite azl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle kredi vermekte daha se\u00e7ici olabilirler. Yani dimyata pirince giderken eldeki bulgurdan olma riski erken bir faiz indirimi nedeniyle artt\u0131. Faiz indirimi piyasa taraf\u0131ndan istenen bir \u015fey olsayd\u0131 borsa ve \u00f6zellikle bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisse senetlerinde \u00f6nemli ralliler g\u00f6r\u00fcrd\u00fck. Oysa tamam\u0131 ciddi seviyelerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara geldi. \u00d6rne\u011fin Vak\u0131fbank hisse senedi <\/span>7 Ocak 2020 g\u00fcn\u00fc 7 TL\u2019nin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fken, yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu s\u0131ralarda i\u015flem fiyat\u0131 3.24 TL\u2019dir.<\/span>

Ayn\u0131 durum Halk Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. 8 A\u011fustos 2017 g\u00fcn\u00fc 14.91 seviyelerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 28 Eyl\u00fcl 2021 g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.25 TL olmu\u015ftur. Sistemi fazla zorlamak sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 firman\u0131n da nakit dengesine zarar verebilir. \u00d6zellikle eyl\u00fcl enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fcksek gelirse, o zaman negatif reel faizin ne kadar denge sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-faiz-karari-ve-ekonomiye-etkisi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB faiz karar\u0131 ve ekonomiye etkisi","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1131,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}