{"status":true,"post":{"id":24520,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:48:40","created_at":"2021-01-21T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:48:40.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":24520,"is_featured":0,"title":"TCMB enflasyonu de\u011fil, kuru \u00f6nceliklendiriyor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik temel ger\u00e7e\u011fi, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin \u2018talep \u00e7eki\u015fli\u2019 de\u011fil, \u2018maliyet \u00e7eki\u015fli\u2019 bir enflasyon dinami\u011fine sahip oldu\u011fudur. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kal\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7 elde etmenin yolu, \u2018talebi bask\u0131lamak\u2019tan \u00e7ok \u2018etkin maliyet y\u00f6netimi\u2019dir. Maliyet enflasyonunun g\u00f6stergesi niteli\u011findeki Yurti\u00e7i \u00dcFE, Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00dcFE ve Tar\u0131m \u00dcFE, talep enflasyonunun g\u00f6stergesi niteli\u011findeki T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeyde, Y\u0130-\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 25.16, Tar\u0131m \u00dcFE y\u00fczde 21.24 ve YD-\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 37.56 artm\u0131\u015fken, T\u00dcFE\u2019deki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 14.60 d\u00fczeyinde. Bilhassa, ihracat ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u00fcretim yapan firmalar\u0131n maliyetlerindeki y\u00fczde 37.56\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

F\u0130YAT BEL\u0130RLEME ALI\u015eKANLIKLARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, ihracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re ayn\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131kla ihracat yapabilmesi i\u00e7in 0.5 dolar ile 0.5 Euro\u2019dan olu\u015fan sepet kurun da ayn\u0131 oranda artmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi gereken bir T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131, adeta bir enflasyon sarmal\u0131 gibi d\u00f6n\u00fcp tekrar ithalata dayal\u0131 \u00fcretim maliyetlerinde art\u0131\u015fa sebep oluyor. Bu noktada, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki zafiyeti, ahlaki rizikoyu dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ithalat\u0131n pay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcnde d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hesaba katmas\u0131 gereken firmalar, satt\u0131klar\u0131 mal\u0131n fiyat\u0131na kurlardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc kadar zam yap\u0131yorlar.<\/span><\/p>

D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na, TCMB\u2019nin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak tercih etti\u011fi bir metodoloji olan \u2018d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizle \u015foklama\u2019, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkili oluyor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u2018faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019 beklentisi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftikten ve s\u0131cak para tekrar d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya \u00e7\u0131kma ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 yeniden hareketleniyor ve reel sekt\u00f6r kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak, \u2018kur-maliyet-enflasyon\u2019 sarmal\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015e D\u00dcNYASIYLA MAL\u0130YET Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonla m\u00fccadele noktas\u0131nda, \u2018talebi bask\u0131lamak\u2019 asla kal\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nabilecek bir metot de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm hi\u00e7 de\u011fil. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 temsil eden sivil toplum kurulu\u015flar\u0131yla masaya oturularak, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim, ticaret ve ihracat maliyetlerine yans\u0131mas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u2018etkin maliyet y\u00f6netimi\u2019 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131p, fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131nda ciddi sorunlar\u0131, ahlaki erozyonu olan sekt\u00f6rlerin temsilcileriyle tek tek masaya oturup, t\u00fcm enflasyonist tabloyu tart\u0131\u015fmak gerekiyor. Ayn\u0131 durum, yine \u00fcretim maliyetleri ve ivedi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde verimlilik sorunlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, tar\u0131m ve g\u0131da sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de aciliyeti olan bir konu.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonun \u2018maliyet \u00e7eki\u015fli\u2019 yap\u0131s\u0131 en detayl\u0131 \u015fekilde masaya yat\u0131r\u0131lmadan ve bu konuda geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir yol haritas\u0131 olu\u015fturulmadan, TCMB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kararlar\u0131, esasen \u2018enflasyonla m\u00fccadele\u2019 veya \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 \u00f6nceli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maktan \u00e7ok, \u2018kur istikrar\u0131\u2019 \u00f6nceli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan bir ad\u0131m anlam\u0131na gelir. O da yine ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in.<\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019DE \u2018TAR\u0130H\u0130\u2019 B\u00dcT\u00c7E BA\u015eARISI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finin beklenenden y\u00fcksek bir performansa i\u015faret etmesi halinde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH\u2019sinde 5 trilyon lira \u00e7\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonun art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden y\u00fcksek seyretmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ekim ay\u0131 sonundan itibaren h\u0131zla devreye giren \u2018ekonomiyi so\u011futma\u2019 tedbirleri ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkili oldu, hen\u00fcz tam kestiremesek dahi, y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 4 trilyon 893 milyar TL ile y\u0131l\u0131 kapatmas\u0131, y\u00fczde 30 olas\u0131l\u0131kla da 5 trilyon TL \u00e7\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rarak tamamlam\u0131\u015f olmam\u0131z ihtimalini buraya not d\u00fc\u015felim. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisini bu derece a\u011f\u0131r vurdu\u011fu bir y\u0131lda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hem y\u0131l\u0131 pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatmas\u0131 muhtemel 3 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda yer alma hem de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 5 trilyon TL \u00e7\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkileyici.<\/span>
Bu da, neoliberal \u2018ortodoks\u2019 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm negatif ele\u015ftirilerine ra\u011fmen mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana seri bir \u015fekilde hayata ge\u00e7irilmi\u015f olan para, maliye ve direkt kontrol politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin hem etkili hem de isabetli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da, 172.7 milyar TL olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakam\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye, milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde -3.5 ile -3.7 aras\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-enflasyonu-degil-kuru-onceliklendiriyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB enflasyonu de\u011fil, kuru \u00f6nceliklendiriyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1152,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":24619,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":24520,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"TCMB enflasyonu de\u011fil, kuru \u00f6nceliklendiriyor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik temel ger\u00e7e\u011fi, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin \u2018talep \u00e7eki\u015fli\u2019 de\u011fil, \u2018maliyet \u00e7eki\u015fli\u2019 bir enflasyon dinami\u011fine sahip oldu\u011fudur. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kal\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7 elde etmenin yolu, \u2018talebi bask\u0131lamak\u2019tan \u00e7ok \u2018etkin maliyet y\u00f6netimi\u2019dir. Maliyet enflasyonunun g\u00f6stergesi niteli\u011findeki Yurti\u00e7i \u00dcFE, Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00dcFE ve Tar\u0131m \u00dcFE, talep enflasyonunun g\u00f6stergesi niteli\u011findeki T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeyde, Y\u0130-\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 25.16, Tar\u0131m \u00dcFE y\u00fczde 21.24 ve YD-\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 37.56 artm\u0131\u015fken, T\u00dcFE\u2019deki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 14.60 d\u00fczeyinde. Bilhassa, ihracat ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u00fcretim yapan firmalar\u0131n maliyetlerindeki y\u00fczde 37.56\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

F\u0130YAT BEL\u0130RLEME ALI\u015eKANLIKLARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, ihracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re ayn\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131kla ihracat yapabilmesi i\u00e7in 0.5 dolar ile 0.5 Euro\u2019dan olu\u015fan sepet kurun da ayn\u0131 oranda artmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi gereken bir T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131, adeta bir enflasyon sarmal\u0131 gibi d\u00f6n\u00fcp tekrar ithalata dayal\u0131 \u00fcretim maliyetlerinde art\u0131\u015fa sebep oluyor. Bu noktada, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki zafiyeti, ahlaki rizikoyu dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ithalat\u0131n pay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcnde d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hesaba katmas\u0131 gereken firmalar, satt\u0131klar\u0131 mal\u0131n fiyat\u0131na kurlardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc kadar zam yap\u0131yorlar.<\/span><\/p>

D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na, TCMB\u2019nin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak tercih etti\u011fi bir metodoloji olan \u2018d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizle \u015foklama\u2019, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkili oluyor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u2018faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019 beklentisi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftikten ve s\u0131cak para tekrar d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya \u00e7\u0131kma ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 yeniden hareketleniyor ve reel sekt\u00f6r kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak, \u2018kur-maliyet-enflasyon\u2019 sarmal\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015e D\u00dcNYASIYLA MAL\u0130YET Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonla m\u00fccadele noktas\u0131nda, \u2018talebi bask\u0131lamak\u2019 asla kal\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nabilecek bir metot de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm hi\u00e7 de\u011fil. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 temsil eden sivil toplum kurulu\u015flar\u0131yla masaya oturularak, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim, ticaret ve ihracat maliyetlerine yans\u0131mas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u2018etkin maliyet y\u00f6netimi\u2019 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131p, fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131nda ciddi sorunlar\u0131, ahlaki erozyonu olan sekt\u00f6rlerin temsilcileriyle tek tek masaya oturup, t\u00fcm enflasyonist tabloyu tart\u0131\u015fmak gerekiyor. Ayn\u0131 durum, yine \u00fcretim maliyetleri ve ivedi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde verimlilik sorunlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, tar\u0131m ve g\u0131da sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de aciliyeti olan bir konu.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonun \u2018maliyet \u00e7eki\u015fli\u2019 yap\u0131s\u0131 en detayl\u0131 \u015fekilde masaya yat\u0131r\u0131lmadan ve bu konuda geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir yol haritas\u0131 olu\u015fturulmadan, TCMB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kararlar\u0131, esasen \u2018enflasyonla m\u00fccadele\u2019 veya \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 \u00f6nceli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maktan \u00e7ok, \u2018kur istikrar\u0131\u2019 \u00f6nceli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan bir ad\u0131m anlam\u0131na gelir. O da yine ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in.<\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019DE \u2018TAR\u0130H\u0130\u2019 B\u00dcT\u00c7E BA\u015eARISI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finin beklenenden y\u00fcksek bir performansa i\u015faret etmesi halinde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH\u2019sinde 5 trilyon lira \u00e7\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonun art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden y\u00fcksek seyretmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ekim ay\u0131 sonundan itibaren h\u0131zla devreye giren \u2018ekonomiyi so\u011futma\u2019 tedbirleri ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkili oldu, hen\u00fcz tam kestiremesek dahi, y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 4 trilyon 893 milyar TL ile y\u0131l\u0131 kapatmas\u0131, y\u00fczde 30 olas\u0131l\u0131kla da 5 trilyon TL \u00e7\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rarak tamamlam\u0131\u015f olmam\u0131z ihtimalini buraya not d\u00fc\u015felim. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisini bu derece a\u011f\u0131r vurdu\u011fu bir y\u0131lda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hem y\u0131l\u0131 pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatmas\u0131 muhtemel 3 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda yer alma hem de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 5 trilyon TL \u00e7\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkileyici.<\/span>
Bu da, neoliberal \u2018ortodoks\u2019 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm negatif ele\u015ftirilerine ra\u011fmen mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana seri bir \u015fekilde hayata ge\u00e7irilmi\u015f olan para, maliye ve direkt kontrol politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin hem etkili hem de isabetli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da, 172.7 milyar TL olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakam\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye, milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde -3.5 ile -3.7 aras\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-enflasyonu-degil-kuru-onceliklendiriyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB enflasyonu de\u011fil, kuru \u00f6nceliklendiriyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1152,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}