{"status":true,"post":{"id":31879,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 20:54:02","created_at":"2022-03-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T17:54:02.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":31879,"is_featured":0,"title":"Sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde ekonomik vaziyet: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm avantajlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen zor bir co\u011frafyada ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kabul edelim. 1970\u2019li y\u0131llarda Arap-\u0130srail Sava\u015f\u0131 ve K\u0131br\u0131s Harek\u00e2t\u0131; 1980\u2019lerde \u0130ran-Irak Sava\u015f\u0131; 1990\u2019larda K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 ve Bosna Sava\u015f\u0131; 2000\u2019lerde ABD\u2019nin Irak\u2019\u0131 i\u015fgali ve Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131\u2026 <\/span>
<\/span>
Maalesef, bu y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 halkaya bir yenisi daha eklendi: Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131. Bu tip jeopolitik krizler, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini y\u0131prat\u0131yor; ger\u00e7ek ekonomik potansiyelimizi yakalaman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde engel te\u015fkil ediyor.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
\u0130HRACAT RAKAMLARI BEL\u0130RLEY\u0130C\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Hem Rusya hem de Ukrayna d\u0131\u015f ticaret, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve turizmdeki en \u00f6nemli partnerlerimiz aras\u0131nda. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar, b\u00f6lgeden ithal etti\u011fimiz kritik emtialar\u0131n teminini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Sava\u015ftan dolay\u0131 iki \u00fclkenin ekonomisinin daralmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgeye ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ihracat\u0131 olumsuz etkileyecektir. Ancak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan ekonomik abluka alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131, bavul ticaretinde T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerine belli f\u0131rsatlar sunabilir. Bu iki \u00fclkeye toplam ihracat\u0131n daralmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, \u015firketlerimizin bu kayb\u0131 telafi etmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ve \u0130srail ile diplomatik ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fmesi, bu noktada fayda sa\u011flayabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bununla birlikte, Asya\u2019daki tedarik zinciri s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve zay\u0131f TL\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekabet avantaj\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecektir. Avrupa ekonomisinin bu sava\u015ftan etkilenme derecesi, belki de ihracat rakamlar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerindeki en belirleyici unsur olacak. E\u011fer \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar uzar ve Avrupa ekonomisi yava\u015flarsa, bu durum T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olur. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme vites d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Her t\u00fcrl\u00fc olas\u0131 senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak laz\u0131m. Ama a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 karamsar bir ruh haline b\u00fcr\u00fcnmenin de faydas\u0131 yok. Sava\u015f\u0131n kendisi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizlik unsurudur; s\u00fcrecin nereye evrilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek kolay de\u011fildir. Diplomatik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme ihtimalini de tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek laz\u0131m.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
ENFLASYON VE CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalardan dolay\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir durum. Bu y\u0131l cari fazla hedefi ile yola \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Ancak, g\u00fcncel beklentiler y\u0131lsonunda 30 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k verebilece\u011fimiz y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Petrol\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bu\u011fday ve metal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131yor olmas\u0131, enflasyon i\u00e7in de sorun te\u015fkil ediyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Turizmin bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lardan ne derece etkilenece\u011fini tahmin etmek i\u00e7in biraz daha zamana ihtiya\u00e7 var. Mevcut tablo olumsuz gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de turizmdeki kay\u0131plar\u0131 telafi edebilecek alternatifler kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm bu de\u011fi\u015fkenlere ve senaryolara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k risklerinin daha bariz oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden ziyade \u00f6nceli\u011fi bu iki parametreye vermek daha do\u011fru olacakt\u0131r. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 bu \u00f6nceli\u011fe g\u00f6re tasarlamal\u0131 ve uygulamal\u0131y\u0131z. Son olarak \u015funu vurgulamak gerekir ki, \u015firketlerimiz de\u011fi\u015fen zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullara adapte olma noktas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir dinamizme ve deneyime sahip. Bu da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 direncini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 bunun en yak\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fi niteli\u011finde.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"savasin-golgesinde-ekonomik-vaziyet-turkiyeye-olasi-yansimalar","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde ekonomik vaziyet: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar","meta_description":"DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1052,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":31978,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":31879,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde ekonomik vaziyet: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm avantajlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen zor bir co\u011frafyada ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kabul edelim. 1970\u2019li y\u0131llarda Arap-\u0130srail Sava\u015f\u0131 ve K\u0131br\u0131s Harek\u00e2t\u0131; 1980\u2019lerde \u0130ran-Irak Sava\u015f\u0131; 1990\u2019larda K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 ve Bosna Sava\u015f\u0131; 2000\u2019lerde ABD\u2019nin Irak\u2019\u0131 i\u015fgali ve Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131\u2026 <\/span>
<\/span>
Maalesef, bu y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 halkaya bir yenisi daha eklendi: Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131. Bu tip jeopolitik krizler, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini y\u0131prat\u0131yor; ger\u00e7ek ekonomik potansiyelimizi yakalaman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde engel te\u015fkil ediyor.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
\u0130HRACAT RAKAMLARI BEL\u0130RLEY\u0130C\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Hem Rusya hem de Ukrayna d\u0131\u015f ticaret, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve turizmdeki en \u00f6nemli partnerlerimiz aras\u0131nda. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar, b\u00f6lgeden ithal etti\u011fimiz kritik emtialar\u0131n teminini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Sava\u015ftan dolay\u0131 iki \u00fclkenin ekonomisinin daralmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgeye ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ihracat\u0131 olumsuz etkileyecektir. Ancak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan ekonomik abluka alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131, bavul ticaretinde T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerine belli f\u0131rsatlar sunabilir. Bu iki \u00fclkeye toplam ihracat\u0131n daralmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, \u015firketlerimizin bu kayb\u0131 telafi etmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ve \u0130srail ile diplomatik ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fmesi, bu noktada fayda sa\u011flayabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bununla birlikte, Asya\u2019daki tedarik zinciri s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve zay\u0131f TL\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekabet avantaj\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecektir. Avrupa ekonomisinin bu sava\u015ftan etkilenme derecesi, belki de ihracat rakamlar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerindeki en belirleyici unsur olacak. E\u011fer \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar uzar ve Avrupa ekonomisi yava\u015flarsa, bu durum T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olur. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme vites d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Her t\u00fcrl\u00fc olas\u0131 senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak laz\u0131m. Ama a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 karamsar bir ruh haline b\u00fcr\u00fcnmenin de faydas\u0131 yok. Sava\u015f\u0131n kendisi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizlik unsurudur; s\u00fcrecin nereye evrilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek kolay de\u011fildir. Diplomatik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme ihtimalini de tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek laz\u0131m.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
ENFLASYON VE CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalardan dolay\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir durum. Bu y\u0131l cari fazla hedefi ile yola \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Ancak, g\u00fcncel beklentiler y\u0131lsonunda 30 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k verebilece\u011fimiz y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Petrol\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bu\u011fday ve metal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131yor olmas\u0131, enflasyon i\u00e7in de sorun te\u015fkil ediyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Turizmin bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lardan ne derece etkilenece\u011fini tahmin etmek i\u00e7in biraz daha zamana ihtiya\u00e7 var. Mevcut tablo olumsuz gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de turizmdeki kay\u0131plar\u0131 telafi edebilecek alternatifler kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm bu de\u011fi\u015fkenlere ve senaryolara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k risklerinin daha bariz oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden ziyade \u00f6nceli\u011fi bu iki parametreye vermek daha do\u011fru olacakt\u0131r. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 bu \u00f6nceli\u011fe g\u00f6re tasarlamal\u0131 ve uygulamal\u0131y\u0131z. Son olarak \u015funu vurgulamak gerekir ki, \u015firketlerimiz de\u011fi\u015fen zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullara adapte olma noktas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir dinamizme ve deneyime sahip. Bu da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 direncini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 bunun en yak\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fi niteli\u011finde.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"savasin-golgesinde-ekonomik-vaziyet-turkiyeye-olasi-yansimalar","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde ekonomik vaziyet: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar","meta_description":"DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1052,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}