{"status":true,"post":{"id":23321,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:27:41","created_at":"2020-10-22T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:27:41.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":23321,"is_featured":0,"title":"Salg\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda artan ticaret gerginli\u011fi sonucu ise 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ancak y\u00fczde 2.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterebilmi\u015fti. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu kez de Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daralma ya\u015fand\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ekonomilerde toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131, ancak Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ikinci dalgas\u0131 da kuvvetleniyor. Salg\u0131nda ikinci dalga k\u00fcresel ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131, de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span>
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1. H\u00dcK\u00dcMETLER\u0130N DESTEKLER\u0130 \u0130LE BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N \u00dcZER\u0130NDE TOPARLANMA BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin destekleri ve salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler sonras\u0131 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren iktisadi faaliyetlere geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131 ve hem sanayi \u00fcretimi hem de mal ticareti yeniden hareketlendi. H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f destekleri ekonomilerdeki toparlanmay\u0131 destekledi. Yine firmalar\u0131n yeni bir salg\u0131n endi\u015fesi ile yaz aylar\u0131nda yo\u011fun sipari\u015flerde bulunmas\u0131, hem sanayi \u00fcretiminde hem de mal ticaretinde beklentilerin \u00f6tesinde toparlanmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 sonu itibariyle d\u00fcnya sanayi \u00fcretimi PMI verisi 52.3 puan ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yine sanayi mal\u0131 ihracat sipari\u015flerinde de eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 51.7 puan ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/span>
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2. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE DARALMA BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130 AZALIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Yaz aylar\u0131 ile eyl\u00fcl ve ekim aylar\u0131nda ekonomideki toparlanma h\u0131z kazand\u0131. Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki bu toparlanma nedeniyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin daralma beklentileri d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Nitekim uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar daha \u00f6nce 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama y\u00fczde 6.0 gibi bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ekim ay\u0131nda g\u00fcncelledikleri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinde ortalama y\u00fczde 4.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme bekleniyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
3. 2021 YILINDA HIZLI B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise olduk\u00e7a iyimser b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine sahip. IMF, OECD, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi kurumlar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 5.0\u2019e yak\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyorlar. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 baz etkisi de bulunuyor. Ancak baz etkisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan kademeli toparlanman\u0131n 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca s\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in de yol g\u00f6sterici oluyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 5.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi de tutarl\u0131 oluyor.<\/span>
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4. COV\u0130D-19 SALGININDA YEN\u0130 DALGALAR B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N\u0130 BOZACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri bu \u015fekilde ortaya konulmu\u015f olmakla birlikte bu beklentilerde temel belirleyici yine Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler olacak. Nitekim d\u00fcnya genelinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131 400 bini de ge\u00e7erek ilk dalgan\u0131n ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Muhtemelen k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yeni vaka say\u0131s\u0131 600 bine kadar ula\u015fabilecek. G\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131ndaki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetler tam bir kapama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorlar. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ister istemez iktisadi faaliyetlerde yava\u015flama ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak. Bu da d\u00fcnya ekonomisini olumsuz etkileyecek. Bu nedenle kas\u0131m-mart d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ivme kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
5. ULUSLARARASI KURUMLAR DA \u0130VME KAYBINA KAR\u015eI UYARDI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde yap\u0131lan IMF-D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda da ekonomilerdeki olas\u0131 ivme kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re desteklerin erken geri \u00e7ekilmemesi, maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ekonomilerin desteklenmesi istendi. Para politikalar\u0131nda art\u0131k son noktaya gelindi\u011fi kabul ediliyor. Bu nedenle maliye politikalar\u0131ndan beklentiler art\u0131yor. Muhtemelen \u00fclkeler zorlu k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda yeni destek paketleri a\u00e7\u0131klamak durumunda kalacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
6. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 2021 YILINDA D\u00d6RT MEVS\u0130M\u0130 DE YA\u015eAYACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm bu de\u011ferlendirmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda farkl\u0131 \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemler ya\u015fayacak. Kas\u0131m-mart d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ivme kaybedecek. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren yeniden toparlanma ba\u015flayacak. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 ve yayg\u0131n uygulamas\u0131 ile y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanma h\u0131z kazanacak. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki y\u0131la sarkmas\u0131 halinde ise d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 sadece baz etkisi ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatabilecek. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021\u2019de d\u00f6rt mevsim i\u00e7in de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmakta fayda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"salgin-kuresel-ekonomide-ivme-kaybina-yol-acar-mi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Salg\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131?","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1072,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":23420,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":23321,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Salg\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda artan ticaret gerginli\u011fi sonucu ise 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ancak y\u00fczde 2.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterebilmi\u015fti. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu kez de Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daralma ya\u015fand\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ekonomilerde toparlanma ba\u015flad\u0131, ancak Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ikinci dalgas\u0131 da kuvvetleniyor. Salg\u0131nda ikinci dalga k\u00fcresel ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131, de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span>
<\/span>
1. H\u00dcK\u00dcMETLER\u0130N DESTEKLER\u0130 \u0130LE BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N \u00dcZER\u0130NDE TOPARLANMA BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin destekleri ve salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler sonras\u0131 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren iktisadi faaliyetlere geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131 ve hem sanayi \u00fcretimi hem de mal ticareti yeniden hareketlendi. H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f destekleri ekonomilerdeki toparlanmay\u0131 destekledi. Yine firmalar\u0131n yeni bir salg\u0131n endi\u015fesi ile yaz aylar\u0131nda yo\u011fun sipari\u015flerde bulunmas\u0131, hem sanayi \u00fcretiminde hem de mal ticaretinde beklentilerin \u00f6tesinde toparlanmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 sonu itibariyle d\u00fcnya sanayi \u00fcretimi PMI verisi 52.3 puan ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yine sanayi mal\u0131 ihracat sipari\u015flerinde de eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 51.7 puan ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/span>
<\/span>
2. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE DARALMA BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130 AZALIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Yaz aylar\u0131 ile eyl\u00fcl ve ekim aylar\u0131nda ekonomideki toparlanma h\u0131z kazand\u0131. Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki bu toparlanma nedeniyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin daralma beklentileri d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Nitekim uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar daha \u00f6nce 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama y\u00fczde 6.0 gibi bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ekim ay\u0131nda g\u00fcncelledikleri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinde ortalama y\u00fczde 4.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme bekleniyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
3. 2021 YILINDA HIZLI B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise olduk\u00e7a iyimser b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine sahip. IMF, OECD, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi kurumlar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 5.0\u2019e yak\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyorlar. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 baz etkisi de bulunuyor. Ancak baz etkisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan kademeli toparlanman\u0131n 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca s\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in de yol g\u00f6sterici oluyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 5.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi de tutarl\u0131 oluyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
4. COV\u0130D-19 SALGININDA YEN\u0130 DALGALAR B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N\u0130 BOZACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri bu \u015fekilde ortaya konulmu\u015f olmakla birlikte bu beklentilerde temel belirleyici yine Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler olacak. Nitekim d\u00fcnya genelinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131 400 bini de ge\u00e7erek ilk dalgan\u0131n ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Muhtemelen k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yeni vaka say\u0131s\u0131 600 bine kadar ula\u015fabilecek. G\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131ndaki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetler tam bir kapama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorlar. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ister istemez iktisadi faaliyetlerde yava\u015flama ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak. Bu da d\u00fcnya ekonomisini olumsuz etkileyecek. Bu nedenle kas\u0131m-mart d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ivme kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
5. ULUSLARARASI KURUMLAR DA \u0130VME KAYBINA KAR\u015eI UYARDI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde yap\u0131lan IMF-D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda da ekonomilerdeki olas\u0131 ivme kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re desteklerin erken geri \u00e7ekilmemesi, maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ekonomilerin desteklenmesi istendi. Para politikalar\u0131nda art\u0131k son noktaya gelindi\u011fi kabul ediliyor. Bu nedenle maliye politikalar\u0131ndan beklentiler art\u0131yor. Muhtemelen \u00fclkeler zorlu k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda yeni destek paketleri a\u00e7\u0131klamak durumunda kalacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
6. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 2021 YILINDA D\u00d6RT MEVS\u0130M\u0130 DE YA\u015eAYACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm bu de\u011ferlendirmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda farkl\u0131 \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemler ya\u015fayacak. Kas\u0131m-mart d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ivme kaybedecek. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren yeniden toparlanma ba\u015flayacak. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 ve yayg\u0131n uygulamas\u0131 ile y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanma h\u0131z kazanacak. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki y\u0131la sarkmas\u0131 halinde ise d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 sadece baz etkisi ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatabilecek. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021\u2019de d\u00f6rt mevsim i\u00e7in de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmakta fayda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"salgin-kuresel-ekonomide-ivme-kaybina-yol-acar-mi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Salg\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131?","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1072,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}