{"status":true,"post":{"id":44447,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-10-16 07:04:00","created_at":"2023-10-16T04:04:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-10-16T04:04:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":44447,"is_featured":0,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn panoramas\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kredi faizlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131m\u0131z olan Avrupa\u2019daki durgunlu\u011fa ra\u011fmen sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u015fu ana kadar belirgin bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme ya\u015famad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, son veriler sanayide g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi ayl\u0131k bazda gerileme kaydetse de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131da. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ise eyl\u00fclde 1.2 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 76.9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Ancak, imalat sanayi PMI rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00fczere, yeni sipari\u015flerde yava\u015flama var. Yeni sipari\u015flerdeki tutukluk, \u00f6zellikle giyim ve deri sekt\u00f6rlerinde kendini daha fazla hissettiriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi hassas bir denge tutturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir taraftan enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi i\u00e7in i\u00e7 talebin birka\u00e7 derece so\u011futulmas\u0131 hedeflenirken, di\u011fer yandan \u00fcretimin ve istihdam\u0131n duraksamas\u0131 istenmiyor. B\u00f6yle bir dengenin sa\u011flanabilmesi i\u00e7in ihracat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans sergilemesi \u015fart.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yava\u015flayan k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle ihracat, bu y\u0131l 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla durgun seyretti. OVP, ihracat\u0131n 2024\u2019te 267 milyar dolara y\u00fckselece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Bu seviyeye ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ekonominin toparlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Fed ve ECB gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecini tamamlama a\u015famas\u0131nda olmalar\u0131, hatta gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flama ihtimalinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, k\u00fcresel ekonomik aktiviteye 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda destek sa\u011flayabilir. Enerji ve di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyri de k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimin artmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na bask\u0131 yapabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracatta her \u015fey d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 de\u011fil. \u0130\u00e7eride yapmam\u0131z gereken \u015feyler var. D\u00f6viz kuru, ihracat \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli etkiye sahip olsa da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin esas rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi, kalite ve markala\u015fmadan sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6viz kuruna ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir rekabet avantaj\u0131, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleyemez.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

H\u0130ZMET ENFLASYONU<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yukar\u0131da ifade etti\u011fim zorlu dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 yolunda hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131sa ve orta vadeli seyri de \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Zira, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki fiyat kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon \u00fczerinde olduk\u00e7a belirleyici. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 olmas\u0131, turizmdeki canl\u0131l\u0131k ve y\u00fcksek i\u00e7 talep gibi unsurlar, hizmet enflasyonunu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Turizm, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00f6netilebilir seviyelerde kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik. Enflasyonun \u00fccretlerle ilgili k\u0131sm\u0131 ise Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. Geriye y\u00fcksek i\u00e7 talebi kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak kal\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00fcven endeksi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hizmet talebine dair baz\u0131 ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 veriyor. Eyl\u00fclde reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi art\u0131\u015f kaydederken, alt endekslerde sadece hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 ayda hizmetlere olan talep beklentisinde 5 puanl\u0131k bir gerileme var. Talebe y\u00f6nelik beklentiler temmuzdan bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Yine de hizmetlerde i\u00e7 talebin so\u011fudu\u011funa dair kesin bir kan\u0131ya varmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin OVP\u2019de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, enflasyonu y\u00fczde 33\u2019e \u00e7ekebilmesi i\u00e7in tar\u0131m ve sanayi \u00fcretiminin milli gelirden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay\u0131n artmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Hizmetlerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek kolay olmaz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"reel-sektorun-panoramasi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1697403600lpdxojf2mCtFXwD.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1585,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":44573,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":44447,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn panoramas\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kredi faizlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131m\u0131z olan Avrupa\u2019daki durgunlu\u011fa ra\u011fmen sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u015fu ana kadar belirgin bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme ya\u015famad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, son veriler sanayide g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi ayl\u0131k bazda gerileme kaydetse de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131da. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ise eyl\u00fclde 1.2 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 76.9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Ancak, imalat sanayi PMI rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00fczere, yeni sipari\u015flerde yava\u015flama var. Yeni sipari\u015flerdeki tutukluk, \u00f6zellikle giyim ve deri sekt\u00f6rlerinde kendini daha fazla hissettiriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi hassas bir denge tutturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir taraftan enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi i\u00e7in i\u00e7 talebin birka\u00e7 derece so\u011futulmas\u0131 hedeflenirken, di\u011fer yandan \u00fcretimin ve istihdam\u0131n duraksamas\u0131 istenmiyor. B\u00f6yle bir dengenin sa\u011flanabilmesi i\u00e7in ihracat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans sergilemesi \u015fart.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yava\u015flayan k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle ihracat, bu y\u0131l 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla durgun seyretti. OVP, ihracat\u0131n 2024\u2019te 267 milyar dolara y\u00fckselece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Bu seviyeye ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ekonominin toparlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Fed ve ECB gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecini tamamlama a\u015famas\u0131nda olmalar\u0131, hatta gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flama ihtimalinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, k\u00fcresel ekonomik aktiviteye 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda destek sa\u011flayabilir. Enerji ve di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyri de k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimin artmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na bask\u0131 yapabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracatta her \u015fey d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 de\u011fil. \u0130\u00e7eride yapmam\u0131z gereken \u015feyler var. D\u00f6viz kuru, ihracat \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli etkiye sahip olsa da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin esas rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi, kalite ve markala\u015fmadan sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6viz kuruna ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir rekabet avantaj\u0131, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleyemez.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

H\u0130ZMET ENFLASYONU<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yukar\u0131da ifade etti\u011fim zorlu dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 yolunda hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131sa ve orta vadeli seyri de \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Zira, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki fiyat kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon \u00fczerinde olduk\u00e7a belirleyici. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 olmas\u0131, turizmdeki canl\u0131l\u0131k ve y\u00fcksek i\u00e7 talep gibi unsurlar, hizmet enflasyonunu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Turizm, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00f6netilebilir seviyelerde kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik. Enflasyonun \u00fccretlerle ilgili k\u0131sm\u0131 ise Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. Geriye y\u00fcksek i\u00e7 talebi kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak kal\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00fcven endeksi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hizmet talebine dair baz\u0131 ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 veriyor. Eyl\u00fclde reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi art\u0131\u015f kaydederken, alt endekslerde sadece hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 ayda hizmetlere olan talep beklentisinde 5 puanl\u0131k bir gerileme var. Talebe y\u00f6nelik beklentiler temmuzdan bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Yine de hizmetlerde i\u00e7 talebin so\u011fudu\u011funa dair kesin bir kan\u0131ya varmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin OVP\u2019de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, enflasyonu y\u00fczde 33\u2019e \u00e7ekebilmesi i\u00e7in tar\u0131m ve sanayi \u00fcretiminin milli gelirden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay\u0131n artmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Hizmetlerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek kolay olmaz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"reel-sektorun-panoramasi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1697403600lpdxojf2mCtFXwD.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1697403600lpdxojf2mCtFXwD.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1585,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}