{"status":true,"post":{"id":46287,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-12-11 09:06:00","created_at":"2023-12-11T06:06:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-12-12T04:58:04.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":46287,"is_featured":0,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonundaki de\u011fi\u015fim","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB, finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki firmalar\u0131n 2023 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. B\u00f6ylece reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn liraya d\u00f6nme e\u011filiminin ne durumda oldu\u011funu, d\u0131\u015f kaynak bulup bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131 ile ilgili geli\u015fimi rahatl\u0131kla g\u00f6rebiliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Eyl\u00fcl 2023 d\u00f6nemine ait Finansal Kesim D\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Firmalar\u0131n D\u00f6viz Varl\u0131k ve Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri Tablosu de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde; A\u011fustos\u00a0<\/span>2023 verilerine g\u00f6re varl\u0131klar <\/span>1.642 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 2.198 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 75.007 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f ve A\u011fustos 2023 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 556 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durumda reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net bor\u00e7 \u00f6dedi\u011fi, yeni finansmanla bor\u00e7 stokunu art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Buradaki d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 sak\u0131n sizi yan\u0131ltmas\u0131n. Al\u0131nan bor\u00e7lar var, ancak bu bor\u00e7la yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f projeksiyonu eksik. O y\u00fczden uzun vadeli pozisyon her zaman eksi olmaya devam edecektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

L\u0130RALA\u015eMADA BA\u015eARILI OLURSAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

As\u0131l \u00f6nemli olan k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyondur. D\u00f6viz trendinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde oldu\u011fu zamanlarda sadece 1-2 milyar dolar d\u00f6viz pozisyon fazlas\u0131 olan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn Eyl\u00fcl 2023 d\u00f6neminde k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131klar\u0131 150.122 milyon dolar iken, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri 84.612 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. K\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131 ise 65.511 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek, A\u011fustos 2023 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 1.492 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Azalma, uygulanan politikalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7 vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor olabilir. Ancak rakam h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Kald\u0131 ki, azalan k\u0131s\u0131m bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesine de gitmi\u015f olabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc net bor\u00e7 \u00f6deyicisi durumunda bir yap\u0131 var.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyon fazlas\u0131 olan finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki kurulu\u015flar T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na d\u00f6nd\u00fckleri takdirde, Fitch notumuzu y\u00fckseltecektir. Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle, lirala\u015fmada ne kadar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olursak o kadar not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yak\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131z gibi duruyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dcN DI\u015e BOR\u00c7LANMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f finansman imkanlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u015funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Eyl\u00fcl 2023 d\u00f6neminde yurt i\u00e7inden sa\u011flanan k\u0131sa vadeli krediler, A\u011fustos 2023 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 730 milyon dolar artarken, uzun vadeli olanlar 1.040 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan kredilerde ise k\u0131sa vadeli olanlar 1.496 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, uzun vadeli krediler 392 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan al\u0131nan krediler vadelerine bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yurt i\u00e7erisinde ise uzun vadeli kredi kapamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen daha az olmak kayd\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli kredi kulland\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla reel sekt\u00f6r h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma konusunda rahatlayabilmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan zorla\u015fan d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131, bir yandan kur yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi nedeniyle artan enflasyona paralel y\u00fckselen maliyetler, \u015firketleri daha da zorlayacak gibi duruyor. Artan jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle d\u0131\u015f ticarette mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 avantaja \u00e7evirecek stratejiler \u00fcretilmeli.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"reel-sektorun-doviz-pozisyonundaki-degisim","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1702242000Y9DGYBZfawhbS1l.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1697,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":46413,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":46287,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonundaki de\u011fi\u015fim","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB, finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki firmalar\u0131n 2023 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. B\u00f6ylece reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn liraya d\u00f6nme e\u011filiminin ne durumda oldu\u011funu, d\u0131\u015f kaynak bulup bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131 ile ilgili geli\u015fimi rahatl\u0131kla g\u00f6rebiliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Eyl\u00fcl 2023 d\u00f6nemine ait Finansal Kesim D\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Firmalar\u0131n D\u00f6viz Varl\u0131k ve Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri Tablosu de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde; A\u011fustos\u00a0<\/span>2023 verilerine g\u00f6re varl\u0131klar <\/span>1.642 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 2.198 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 75.007 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f ve A\u011fustos 2023 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 556 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durumda reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net bor\u00e7 \u00f6dedi\u011fi, yeni finansmanla bor\u00e7 stokunu art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Buradaki d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 sak\u0131n sizi yan\u0131ltmas\u0131n. Al\u0131nan bor\u00e7lar var, ancak bu bor\u00e7la yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f projeksiyonu eksik. O y\u00fczden uzun vadeli pozisyon her zaman eksi olmaya devam edecektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

L\u0130RALA\u015eMADA BA\u015eARILI OLURSAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

As\u0131l \u00f6nemli olan k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyondur. D\u00f6viz trendinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde oldu\u011fu zamanlarda sadece 1-2 milyar dolar d\u00f6viz pozisyon fazlas\u0131 olan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn Eyl\u00fcl 2023 d\u00f6neminde k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131klar\u0131 150.122 milyon dolar iken, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri 84.612 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. K\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131 ise 65.511 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek, A\u011fustos 2023 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 1.492 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Azalma, uygulanan politikalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7 vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor olabilir. Ancak rakam h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Kald\u0131 ki, azalan k\u0131s\u0131m bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesine de gitmi\u015f olabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc net bor\u00e7 \u00f6deyicisi durumunda bir yap\u0131 var.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyon fazlas\u0131 olan finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki kurulu\u015flar T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na d\u00f6nd\u00fckleri takdirde, Fitch notumuzu y\u00fckseltecektir. Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle, lirala\u015fmada ne kadar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olursak o kadar not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yak\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131z gibi duruyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dcN DI\u015e BOR\u00c7LANMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f finansman imkanlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u015funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Eyl\u00fcl 2023 d\u00f6neminde yurt i\u00e7inden sa\u011flanan k\u0131sa vadeli krediler, A\u011fustos 2023 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 730 milyon dolar artarken, uzun vadeli olanlar 1.040 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan kredilerde ise k\u0131sa vadeli olanlar 1.496 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, uzun vadeli krediler 392 milyon dolar azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan al\u0131nan krediler vadelerine bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yurt i\u00e7erisinde ise uzun vadeli kredi kapamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen daha az olmak kayd\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli kredi kulland\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla reel sekt\u00f6r h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma konusunda rahatlayabilmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan zorla\u015fan d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131, bir yandan kur yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi nedeniyle artan enflasyona paralel y\u00fckselen maliyetler, \u015firketleri daha da zorlayacak gibi duruyor. Artan jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle d\u0131\u015f ticarette mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 avantaja \u00e7evirecek stratejiler \u00fcretilmeli.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"reel-sektorun-doviz-pozisyonundaki-degisim","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1702242000Y9DGYBZfawhbS1l.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1702242000Y9DGYBZfawhbS1l.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1697,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}