{"status":true,"post":{"id":51922,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-05-20 08:41:00","created_at":"2024-05-20T05:41:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-05-20T05:41:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":51922,"is_featured":0,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r d\u00f6viz pozisyonundaki de\u011fi\u015fim bize neyi anlat\u0131yor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r firmalar\u0131, yapacaklar\u0131 hammadde ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ile ticari mal ithalat\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6deme plan\u0131na uygun olarak bir miktar d\u00f6viz ay\u0131r\u0131rken, gelecekteki kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla paralel olarak da d\u00f6viz tutabiliyor. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda al\u0131nan d\u00f6viz cinsi bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6denmesi i\u00e7in de d\u00f6viz tutmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Aksi halde kur riski al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olur. Bunlar tamamen ticaret ve fonlama riski ile ili\u015fkili olarak tutulan d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda bir de yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 veya ekonomik dalgalanmalardan korunmak amac\u0131yla tutulan d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131 var. Bu durum kurlar y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e k\u00e2r, d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e de zarar yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde olumlu\/olumsuz etkiler yapabiliyor. Tabii ki daha \u00f6nce belirledi\u011fimiz ama\u00e7larla tutulan d\u00f6vizle birlikte \u00f6nemli hareketlere sebep veriyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

YURT \u0130\u00c7\u0130 MEVDUATTA AZALMA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki kurulu\u015flar\u0131n d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na ve de\u011fi\u015fimine birlikte bakal\u0131m. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u015eubat 2024\u2019te, Ocak 2024 verilerine g\u00f6re varl\u0131klar\u0131 1.603 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri 1.319 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f. Net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 84.751 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f ve Ocak 2024 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 2.922 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f. Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerdeki azalma varl\u0131k azalmas\u0131ndan daha az olunca pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tabii ki bu durum uzun vadeli ve firmalar\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun vadeli kredilerin toplam tutar\u0131 bor\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, bu krediler vas\u0131tas\u0131yla olu\u015facak gelir projeksiyonlar\u0131 kay\u0131tlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011finden reel sekt\u00f6r toplamda her zaman d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verir konumunda g\u00f6r\u00fcnecektir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de hep b\u00f6yle oldu. Bu durum, daha \u00e7ok uzun vadeli ucuz yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerde yer almas\u0131yla alakal\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eubat 2024 d\u00f6nemi varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 incelendi\u011finde; bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yurt i\u00e7i bankalardaki mevduat ve ihracat alacaklar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1.849 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 ve 155 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011frudan sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve menkul k\u0131ymetler s\u0131ras\u0131yla 365 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 ve 36 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f ve sonu\u00e7 olarak varl\u0131klar 1.603 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f. Burada d\u00f6viz cinsinden yurt i\u00e7i mevduattaki azalma dikkat \u00e7ekici.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

D\u00d6V\u0130Z C\u0130NS\u0130 KRED\u0130DE ARTI\u015e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda ise; bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yurt i\u00e7inden sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler 1.991 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artarken, ithalat bor\u00e7lar\u0131 ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler s\u0131ras\u0131yla 592 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 ve 80 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 1.319 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere bir yandan yurti\u00e7i d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan d\u00f6viz cinsi kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olmu\u015f. Bu, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kurlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fi, kur hareketlerinin TL cinsi kredi faizlerine g\u00f6re d\u00f6viz cinsi kredilerde daha az maliyet olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyon geli\u015fmelerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da \u015funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz; \u015eubat 2024 d\u00f6neminde k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131klar 147.597 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 iken, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 89.464 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. K\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131 ise 58.132 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek Ocak 2024 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 2.247 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f. Daha \u00f6nce k\u0131sa vade pozisyon fazlas\u0131 65 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na kadar \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Burada da bir miktar azalma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Burada yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n TL pozisyonu \u00f6nermelerinden tutun, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz cinsi mevduattan TL cinsi mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u0131srar\u0131, TL cinsi getirilerin ilgi \u00e7ekmesinden not art\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerine kadar bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn olumlu etkisini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"reel-sektor-doviz-pozisyonundaki-degisim-bize-neyi-anlatiyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1716152400CH6tHU5dzKETcKY.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":6678,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":52048,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":51922,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r d\u00f6viz pozisyonundaki de\u011fi\u015fim bize neyi anlat\u0131yor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r firmalar\u0131, yapacaklar\u0131 hammadde ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ile ticari mal ithalat\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6deme plan\u0131na uygun olarak bir miktar d\u00f6viz ay\u0131r\u0131rken, gelecekteki kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla paralel olarak da d\u00f6viz tutabiliyor. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda al\u0131nan d\u00f6viz cinsi bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6denmesi i\u00e7in de d\u00f6viz tutmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Aksi halde kur riski al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olur. Bunlar tamamen ticaret ve fonlama riski ile ili\u015fkili olarak tutulan d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda bir de yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 veya ekonomik dalgalanmalardan korunmak amac\u0131yla tutulan d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131 var. Bu durum kurlar y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e k\u00e2r, d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e de zarar yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde olumlu\/olumsuz etkiler yapabiliyor. Tabii ki daha \u00f6nce belirledi\u011fimiz ama\u00e7larla tutulan d\u00f6vizle birlikte \u00f6nemli hareketlere sebep veriyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

YURT \u0130\u00c7\u0130 MEVDUATTA AZALMA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki kurulu\u015flar\u0131n d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na ve de\u011fi\u015fimine birlikte bakal\u0131m. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u015eubat 2024\u2019te, Ocak 2024 verilerine g\u00f6re varl\u0131klar\u0131 1.603 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri 1.319 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f. Net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 84.751 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f ve Ocak 2024 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 2.922 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f. Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerdeki azalma varl\u0131k azalmas\u0131ndan daha az olunca pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tabii ki bu durum uzun vadeli ve firmalar\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun vadeli kredilerin toplam tutar\u0131 bor\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, bu krediler vas\u0131tas\u0131yla olu\u015facak gelir projeksiyonlar\u0131 kay\u0131tlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011finden reel sekt\u00f6r toplamda her zaman d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verir konumunda g\u00f6r\u00fcnecektir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de hep b\u00f6yle oldu. Bu durum, daha \u00e7ok uzun vadeli ucuz yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerde yer almas\u0131yla alakal\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eubat 2024 d\u00f6nemi varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 incelendi\u011finde; bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yurt i\u00e7i bankalardaki mevduat ve ihracat alacaklar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1.849 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 ve 155 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011frudan sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve menkul k\u0131ymetler s\u0131ras\u0131yla 365 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 ve 36 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f ve sonu\u00e7 olarak varl\u0131klar 1.603 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f. Burada d\u00f6viz cinsinden yurt i\u00e7i mevduattaki azalma dikkat \u00e7ekici.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

D\u00d6V\u0130Z C\u0130NS\u0130 KRED\u0130DE ARTI\u015e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda ise; bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yurt i\u00e7inden sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler 1.991 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artarken, ithalat bor\u00e7lar\u0131 ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler s\u0131ras\u0131yla 592 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 ve 80 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 1.319 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere bir yandan yurti\u00e7i d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan d\u00f6viz cinsi kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olmu\u015f. Bu, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kurlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fi, kur hareketlerinin TL cinsi kredi faizlerine g\u00f6re d\u00f6viz cinsi kredilerde daha az maliyet olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyon geli\u015fmelerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da \u015funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz; \u015eubat 2024 d\u00f6neminde k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131klar 147.597 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 iken, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 89.464 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. K\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131 ise 58.132 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek Ocak 2024 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 2.247 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f. Daha \u00f6nce k\u0131sa vade pozisyon fazlas\u0131 65 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na kadar \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Burada da bir miktar azalma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Burada yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n TL pozisyonu \u00f6nermelerinden tutun, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz cinsi mevduattan TL cinsi mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u0131srar\u0131, TL cinsi getirilerin ilgi \u00e7ekmesinden not art\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerine kadar bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn olumlu etkisini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"reel-sektor-doviz-pozisyonundaki-degisim-bize-neyi-anlatiyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1716152400CH6tHU5dzKETcKY.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1716152400CH6tHU5dzKETcKY.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":6678,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}