<\/p>
hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Mali piyasalar\u0131n kendine g\u00f6re baz\u0131 kurallar\u0131 vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin makroekonomik verilerde bozulma ilgili \u00fclke paras\u0131na de\u011fer kaybettirirken, borsalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine neden olur. Se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011fi yani siyasi risk artt\u0131k\u00e7a da benzer hareketlere rastlar\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bildi\u011finiz gibi \u00fclkemizde siyasi risk se\u00e7imler nedeniyle y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda kimin Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 ve TBMM \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun hangi ittifakta olaca\u011f\u0131 hususlar\u0131 belirsizdi. Normal beklenen siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle tahvil ve bonolar ile hisse senetlerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yap\u0131larak d\u00f6vize ge\u00e7ip s\u00f6z konusu siyasi riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nanlar\u0131n artmas\u0131 iken, \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> NED\u0130R BU GEL\u0130\u015eMELER?<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00dcnl\u00fc bir ekonomi dergisi \u2018The most important election\u2019 yani en \u00f6nemli se\u00e7im man\u015fetini atarak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecine m\u00fcdahale etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 rating kurulu\u015fu ve fon y\u00f6neten yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131, se\u00e7im ile ilgili ilgin\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparak, adeta insanlar\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda baz\u0131 ekonomist oldu\u011funu iddia eden \u015fah\u0131slar, \u2018se\u00e7im sonucu ne olursa olsun dolar y\u00fckselecek\u2019 yorumlar\u0131 yapt\u0131. Oysa yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n en ba\u015f\u0131nda belirtti\u011fimiz gibi siyasi risk bittikten sonra \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 daha do\u011fru bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. Se\u00e7im riski alarak T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda bekleyenler, s\u00f6z konusu risk bitti\u011finde neden \u00fclke paras\u0131ndan ka\u00e7maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fs\u0131n ki?<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Se\u00e7imden hemen sonra d\u00f6vizde ufak ufak yukar\u0131 hareketler ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak 1 g\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 8 civar\u0131 de\u011fer kazanc\u0131n\u0131 Kabine\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn yapt\u0131. Sonra ise adeta bir \u015feyi beklemeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u015eimdi hem TCMB hem de ekonomi y\u00f6netimi komple de\u011fi\u015fti. Yabanc\u0131 kurumlar s\u00f6z birli\u011fi etmi\u015f gibi hep birlikte TCMB politika faizinin 25 puana y\u00fckselmesini beklediklerini yazd\u0131. 22 Haziran g\u00fcn\u00fc TCMB\u2019nin faizleri yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131p \u00e7izdi\u011fi gibi y\u00fckseltip y\u00fckseltmedi\u011fini hep birlikte g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> POL\u0130T\u0130KA FA\u0130Z\u0130 Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130RSE NELER OLAB\u0130L\u0130R?<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Tahvil faizleri y\u00fckselebilir. Zaten Hazine i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirim oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 200\u2019ler seviyesinde. Sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine neden oluyor. Tahvil faizi y\u00fckselince de tahvil fiyat\u0131 yani de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu durumda 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda de\u011ferlemeden \u00e7\u0131kan k\u00e2r\u0131n keyfini s\u00fcren bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bu sefer tam tersiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bilahare borsalara sat\u0131\u015flar gelebilir. \u015eimdilik reel getiri bulunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n mevcut ekonomik \u015fartlarda gidebilece\u011fi en \u00f6nemli yer borsa oluyor. Bu y\u00fczden de sat\u0131\u015flar c\u0131l\u0131z kalabilir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bankalar\u0131n mevduat maliyetleri artabilir ve o zaman kredi faizlerini yukar\u0131 do\u011fru itebilir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Kur gev\u015feyebilir. Yeterli getiri seviyesine y\u00fckselen tahviller cazibe oda\u011f\u0131 olmaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. O zaman yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fi ile birlikte d\u00f6vize sat\u0131\u015f, tahvil ve bonolarla, borsaya al\u0131\u015f gelebilir. \u015eimdi yeni ekonomik plan \u2018ortodox\u2019 mu olacak, hep birlikte onu anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Ancak yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan \u201cRasyonel zemine d\u00f6nme d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda se\u00e7ene\u011fin kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d ifade edildi\u011finden \u2018ortodox\u2019a y\u00f6nelim ihtimali de y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"piyasalarda-ilginc-gelismeler","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1687122000kLNL8y96kXmZJ1M.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1433,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":41059,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":40933,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Piyasalarda ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmeler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":" hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Mali piyasalar\u0131n kendine g\u00f6re baz\u0131 kurallar\u0131 vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin makroekonomik verilerde bozulma ilgili \u00fclke paras\u0131na de\u011fer kaybettirirken, borsalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine neden olur. Se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011fi yani siyasi risk artt\u0131k\u00e7a da benzer hareketlere rastlar\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bildi\u011finiz gibi \u00fclkemizde siyasi risk se\u00e7imler nedeniyle y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda kimin Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 ve TBMM \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun hangi ittifakta olaca\u011f\u0131 hususlar\u0131 belirsizdi. Normal beklenen siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle tahvil ve bonolar ile hisse senetlerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yap\u0131larak d\u00f6vize ge\u00e7ip s\u00f6z konusu siyasi riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nanlar\u0131n artmas\u0131 iken, \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> NED\u0130R BU GEL\u0130\u015eMELER?<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00dcnl\u00fc bir ekonomi dergisi \u2018The most important election\u2019 yani en \u00f6nemli se\u00e7im man\u015fetini atarak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecine m\u00fcdahale etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 rating kurulu\u015fu ve fon y\u00f6neten yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131, se\u00e7im ile ilgili ilgin\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparak, adeta insanlar\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda baz\u0131 ekonomist oldu\u011funu iddia eden \u015fah\u0131slar, \u2018se\u00e7im sonucu ne olursa olsun dolar y\u00fckselecek\u2019 yorumlar\u0131 yapt\u0131. Oysa yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n en ba\u015f\u0131nda belirtti\u011fimiz gibi siyasi risk bittikten sonra \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 daha do\u011fru bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. Se\u00e7im riski alarak T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda bekleyenler, s\u00f6z konusu risk bitti\u011finde neden \u00fclke paras\u0131ndan ka\u00e7maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fs\u0131n ki?<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Se\u00e7imden hemen sonra d\u00f6vizde ufak ufak yukar\u0131 hareketler ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak 1 g\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 8 civar\u0131 de\u011fer kazanc\u0131n\u0131 Kabine\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn yapt\u0131. Sonra ise adeta bir \u015feyi beklemeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u015eimdi hem TCMB hem de ekonomi y\u00f6netimi komple de\u011fi\u015fti. Yabanc\u0131 kurumlar s\u00f6z birli\u011fi etmi\u015f gibi hep birlikte TCMB politika faizinin 25 puana y\u00fckselmesini beklediklerini yazd\u0131. 22 Haziran g\u00fcn\u00fc TCMB\u2019nin faizleri yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131p \u00e7izdi\u011fi gibi y\u00fckseltip y\u00fckseltmedi\u011fini hep birlikte g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> POL\u0130T\u0130KA FA\u0130Z\u0130 Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130RSE NELER OLAB\u0130L\u0130R?<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Tahvil faizleri y\u00fckselebilir. Zaten Hazine i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirim oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 200\u2019ler seviyesinde. Sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine neden oluyor. Tahvil faizi y\u00fckselince de tahvil fiyat\u0131 yani de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu durumda 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda de\u011ferlemeden \u00e7\u0131kan k\u00e2r\u0131n keyfini s\u00fcren bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bu sefer tam tersiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bilahare borsalara sat\u0131\u015flar gelebilir. \u015eimdilik reel getiri bulunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n mevcut ekonomik \u015fartlarda gidebilece\u011fi en \u00f6nemli yer borsa oluyor. Bu y\u00fczden de sat\u0131\u015flar c\u0131l\u0131z kalabilir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bankalar\u0131n mevduat maliyetleri artabilir ve o zaman kredi faizlerini yukar\u0131 do\u011fru itebilir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Kur gev\u015feyebilir. Yeterli getiri seviyesine y\u00fckselen tahviller cazibe oda\u011f\u0131 olmaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. O zaman yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fi ile birlikte d\u00f6vize sat\u0131\u015f, tahvil ve bonolarla, borsaya al\u0131\u015f gelebilir. \u015eimdi yeni ekonomik plan \u2018ortodox\u2019 mu olacak, hep birlikte onu anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Ancak yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan \u201cRasyonel zemine d\u00f6nme d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda se\u00e7ene\u011fin kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d ifade edildi\u011finden \u2018ortodox\u2019a y\u00f6nelim ihtimali de y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"piyasalarda-ilginc-gelismeler","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1687122000kLNL8y96kXmZJ1M.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1687122000kLNL8y96kXmZJ1M.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1433,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}
<\/p>