{"status":true,"post":{"id":13288,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:24:06","created_at":"2016-03-20T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:24:06.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":13288,"is_featured":0,"title":"Piyasalarda Fed r\u00fczgar\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) mart ay\u0131 FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda piyasa beklentilerine paralel bir \u015fekilde federal faiz oranlar\u0131nda (target range) de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmeyerek y\u00fczde 0.25-0.50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Piyasa beklentisine paralel bir sonu\u00e7. K\u0131sacas\u0131 ortada bir s\u00fcrpriz yok.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ba\u015fkan Yellen taraf\u0131ndan enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 olarak tan\u0131mlayabilece\u011fimiz a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Piyasada ise \u2018\u015fahin\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi olu\u015fturulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131larak dolara prim yapt\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Asl\u0131nda biz \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 tarz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 bekliyorduk. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc veriler \u00f6yle \u2018\u015fahin\u2019 olmay\u0131 gerektirecek cinsten de\u011fildi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun yan\u0131nda, FOMC kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen ekonomik rojeksiyonlarda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u00f6nemli say\u0131labilecek revizyonlara gidildi. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.4 seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme yap\u0131l\u0131rken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 4.7 seviyesinde sabit tutuldu. PCE enflasyonu y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 1.6 seviyesinde sabit tutuldu. K\u0131sacas\u0131 piyasada canlanma beklentileri azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bizim de \u00f6yle\u2026<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Fed \u00fcyelerinin y\u0131lsonunda federal fonlama oran\u0131n\u0131n ortalama seviyesine dair beklentilerinden olu\u015fan medyan seviye Aral\u0131k 15 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 1.375 iken mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.875\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Y\u0131l i\u00e7erisine dair faiz art\u0131r\u0131m beklentisi 4\u2019ten 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 2017 ve 2018 medyan seviyelerde de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyona gidildi. Buna g\u00f6re 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.375\u2019ten y\u00fczde 1.875\u2019e, 2018 i\u00e7inse y\u00fczde 3.25\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3\u2019e do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Uzun vadeli beklenti ise y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3.25 seviyesine g\u00fcncellendi. B\u00f6ylece faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinde ciddi bir azalma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130\u015fte piyasalar\u0131 as\u0131l etkileyen de bu ve Yellen\u2019in \u00c7in\u2019den gelebilecek bir krizden tedirgin olarak yumu\u015fak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu s\u00f6ylemler i\u00e7erisinde 1.1057 seviyesine kadar inen EUR\/USD paritesi 1.13 seviyelerine kadar yakla\u015ft\u0131. USD\/TL 2.9293 seviyesinden 2.8433 seviyesine kadar gev\u015fedi. EUR\/TL paritesi 3.2496 dan 3.2154\u2019e kadar gev\u015fedi. Bu hareketlere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 50 USD ve y\u00fczde 50 Euro\u2019dan olu\u015fan d\u00f6viz sepeti TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 3.0894 TL\u2019den 3.0278 TL seviyesine kadar d\u00fc\u015ferek T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na de\u011fer kazand\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Avrupa durgunlu\u011fu yenmek i\u00e7in para bas\u0131yor ve negatif faize y\u00f6neliyor. ABD \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 krizden korkarak \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131yor. Bu ortamda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olabilir. O y\u00fczden kendisine g\u00fcvenli liman ve istikrarl\u0131 gelir sa\u011flayabilecek yer arayan yabanc\u0131 sermayenin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ak\u0131n ak\u0131n gelmesini engelleyecek tek yol birlik ve beraberli\u011fi bozarak bir kaos yaratmakt\u0131r. Bu oyuna gelinmezse ciddi yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015finin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z;<\/strong> global krizi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirmek bizim ter\u00f6rizm kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"piyasalarda-fed-ruzgari","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Piyasalarda Fed r\u00fczgar\u0131","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":84,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":13387,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":13288,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Piyasalarda Fed r\u00fczgar\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) mart ay\u0131 FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda piyasa beklentilerine paralel bir \u015fekilde federal faiz oranlar\u0131nda (target range) de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmeyerek y\u00fczde 0.25-0.50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Piyasa beklentisine paralel bir sonu\u00e7. K\u0131sacas\u0131 ortada bir s\u00fcrpriz yok.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ba\u015fkan Yellen taraf\u0131ndan enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 olarak tan\u0131mlayabilece\u011fimiz a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Piyasada ise \u2018\u015fahin\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi olu\u015fturulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131larak dolara prim yapt\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Asl\u0131nda biz \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 tarz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 bekliyorduk. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc veriler \u00f6yle \u2018\u015fahin\u2019 olmay\u0131 gerektirecek cinsten de\u011fildi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun yan\u0131nda, FOMC kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen ekonomik rojeksiyonlarda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u00f6nemli say\u0131labilecek revizyonlara gidildi. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.4 seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme yap\u0131l\u0131rken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 4.7 seviyesinde sabit tutuldu. PCE enflasyonu y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 1.6 seviyesinde sabit tutuldu. K\u0131sacas\u0131 piyasada canlanma beklentileri azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bizim de \u00f6yle\u2026<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Fed \u00fcyelerinin y\u0131lsonunda federal fonlama oran\u0131n\u0131n ortalama seviyesine dair beklentilerinden olu\u015fan medyan seviye Aral\u0131k 15 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 1.375 iken mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.875\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Y\u0131l i\u00e7erisine dair faiz art\u0131r\u0131m beklentisi 4\u2019ten 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 2017 ve 2018 medyan seviyelerde de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyona gidildi. Buna g\u00f6re 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.375\u2019ten y\u00fczde 1.875\u2019e, 2018 i\u00e7inse y\u00fczde 3.25\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3\u2019e do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Uzun vadeli beklenti ise y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3.25 seviyesine g\u00fcncellendi. B\u00f6ylece faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinde ciddi bir azalma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130\u015fte piyasalar\u0131 as\u0131l etkileyen de bu ve Yellen\u2019in \u00c7in\u2019den gelebilecek bir krizden tedirgin olarak yumu\u015fak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu s\u00f6ylemler i\u00e7erisinde 1.1057 seviyesine kadar inen EUR\/USD paritesi 1.13 seviyelerine kadar yakla\u015ft\u0131. USD\/TL 2.9293 seviyesinden 2.8433 seviyesine kadar gev\u015fedi. EUR\/TL paritesi 3.2496 dan 3.2154\u2019e kadar gev\u015fedi. Bu hareketlere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 50 USD ve y\u00fczde 50 Euro\u2019dan olu\u015fan d\u00f6viz sepeti TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 3.0894 TL\u2019den 3.0278 TL seviyesine kadar d\u00fc\u015ferek T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na de\u011fer kazand\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Avrupa durgunlu\u011fu yenmek i\u00e7in para bas\u0131yor ve negatif faize y\u00f6neliyor. ABD \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 krizden korkarak \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131yor. Bu ortamda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olabilir. O y\u00fczden kendisine g\u00fcvenli liman ve istikrarl\u0131 gelir sa\u011flayabilecek yer arayan yabanc\u0131 sermayenin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ak\u0131n ak\u0131n gelmesini engelleyecek tek yol birlik ve beraberli\u011fi bozarak bir kaos yaratmakt\u0131r. Bu oyuna gelinmezse ciddi yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015finin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z;<\/strong> global krizi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirmek bizim ter\u00f6rizm kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"piyasalarda-fed-ruzgari","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Piyasalarda Fed r\u00fczgar\u0131","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":84,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}