{"status":true,"post":{"id":55677,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-09-30 07:57:00","created_at":"2024-09-30T04:57:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-09-30T04:57:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":55677,"is_featured":0,"title":"Piyasa gelece\u011fe nas\u0131l bak\u0131yor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


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G\u00fcven endeksleri piyasa akt\u00f6rlerinin gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini, karamsar olup olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir\u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bilgileri edinmemizi sa\u011flar. G\u00fcven endeksleri 0-200 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fer alabilir. Endeksin 100\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn mevcut ve gelecek d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin iyimserli\u011fini, 100\u2019den k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olmas\u0131 ise k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fini g\u00f6sterir.<\/span><\/p>

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\u015eimdi mevsimsel etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hizmet, perakende, ticaret ve in\u015faat g\u00fcven endekslerinin verdi\u011fi ipu\u00e7lar\u0131na bakal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

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H\u0130ZMETTE TALEP ARTI\u015eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fcven endeksi, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 111.8 seviyesine y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fc\u015ferek gelmi\u015fken, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.6 art\u0131\u015fla 112.6 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik iyimser beklentilerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durumda yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 artar ve sekt\u00f6rel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivme kazanabilir. Daha detaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, son 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde i\u015f durumu hemen hemen de\u011fi\u015fmezken, hizmetlere olan talep endeksinde eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.3 art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu geli\u015fme bize, sekt\u00f6re talep konusunda iyimser bir tablonun daha da peki\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Gelecek 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde hizmetlere olan talep beklentisinde y\u00fczde 0.9 art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, gelecekte de iyimser tablonun hakl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc gelecekte m\u00fc\u015fteri talebinde art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Bu arada k\u00f6rfezde sava\u015f\u0131n yay\u0131lma riskinin artmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden giri\u015fleri de tetikleyebilece\u011fini unutmamak laz\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

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PERAKENDEDE \u0130Y\u0130MSERL\u0130K<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Perakende ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, endeksin y\u00fczde 2.5 y\u00fckselerek 110.6 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani iyimser hava ve gelece\u011fe olumlu bak\u0131\u015f daha da peki\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

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\u015eimdi detaylara bakal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

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Son 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde i\u015f hacmi-sat\u0131\u015flar endeksi y\u00fczde 2.4 artarak 117.8 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Hem iyimserli\u011fi peki\u015ftirmi\u015f hem de i\u015fler yolunda mesaj\u0131 vermi\u015ftir. Mevcut mal stok seviyesinin azalmas\u0131 da bunu teyit ediyor. Ancak gelecek 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde i\u015f hacmi-sat\u0131\u015flar beklentisi endeksinin 121.3 ile y\u00fczde 2.5 artmas\u0131 (bir \u00f6nceki ay da y\u00fczde 4 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131), gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik iyimserli\u011fin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu bize g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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KONUT KRED\u0130LER\u0130NE KOLAYLIK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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\u015eimdi in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bakal\u0131m. Endeks, konut piyasas\u0131nda al\u0131nan tedbirler nedeniyle kredili sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fczde 50 olarak ocak-a\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden etkilenmi\u015f olacak ki, 2024 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 87.8\u2019e y\u00fczde 0.2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Gerek al\u0131nan sipari\u015flerin mevcut d\u00fczeyi 82.4 ile gerekse gelecek 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde toplam \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131 beklentisi 93.2 ile karamsar bir tablo \u00e7iziyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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BDDK, son ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararla risk gruplar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitti\u011finden konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde canl\u0131l\u0131k s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. BDDK, 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2024 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamayla bireysel ve konut kredilerinde risk a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu durumda bankalar\u0131n konut kredisi kulland\u0131rmas\u0131na da kolayl\u0131k gelmi\u015f oldu. Kald\u0131 ki, bir kamu bankas\u0131 da konut kredi faizinde indirim kampanyas\u0131 d\u00fczenleyerek, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle konut kredisi m\u00fcracaatlar\u0131 almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de g\u00fcven endeksinin y\u00fckselmesine destek verebilir. Ancak bu geli\u015fmeyle konut fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fe yol a\u00e7ma riskinin de bulundu\u011funu unutmamak laz\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>


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hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>","slug":"piyasa-gelecege-nasil-bakiyor","tags":null,"meta_title":"Piyasa gelece\u011fe nas\u0131l bak\u0131yor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727643600mmk2wF4Hoe6HnoV.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":6345,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":55803,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":55677,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Piyasa gelece\u011fe nas\u0131l bak\u0131yor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


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G\u00fcven endeksleri piyasa akt\u00f6rlerinin gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini, karamsar olup olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir\u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bilgileri edinmemizi sa\u011flar. G\u00fcven endeksleri 0-200 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fer alabilir. Endeksin 100\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn mevcut ve gelecek d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin iyimserli\u011fini, 100\u2019den k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olmas\u0131 ise k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fini g\u00f6sterir.<\/span><\/p>

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\u015eimdi mevsimsel etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hizmet, perakende, ticaret ve in\u015faat g\u00fcven endekslerinin verdi\u011fi ipu\u00e7lar\u0131na bakal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

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H\u0130ZMETTE TALEP ARTI\u015eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fcven endeksi, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 111.8 seviyesine y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fc\u015ferek gelmi\u015fken, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.6 art\u0131\u015fla 112.6 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik iyimser beklentilerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durumda yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 artar ve sekt\u00f6rel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivme kazanabilir. Daha detaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, son 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde i\u015f durumu hemen hemen de\u011fi\u015fmezken, hizmetlere olan talep endeksinde eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.3 art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu geli\u015fme bize, sekt\u00f6re talep konusunda iyimser bir tablonun daha da peki\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Gelecek 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde hizmetlere olan talep beklentisinde y\u00fczde 0.9 art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, gelecekte de iyimser tablonun hakl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc gelecekte m\u00fc\u015fteri talebinde art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Bu arada k\u00f6rfezde sava\u015f\u0131n yay\u0131lma riskinin artmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden giri\u015fleri de tetikleyebilece\u011fini unutmamak laz\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

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PERAKENDEDE \u0130Y\u0130MSERL\u0130K<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Perakende ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, endeksin y\u00fczde 2.5 y\u00fckselerek 110.6 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani iyimser hava ve gelece\u011fe olumlu bak\u0131\u015f daha da peki\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi detaylara bakal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

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Son 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde i\u015f hacmi-sat\u0131\u015flar endeksi y\u00fczde 2.4 artarak 117.8 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Hem iyimserli\u011fi peki\u015ftirmi\u015f hem de i\u015fler yolunda mesaj\u0131 vermi\u015ftir. Mevcut mal stok seviyesinin azalmas\u0131 da bunu teyit ediyor. Ancak gelecek 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde i\u015f hacmi-sat\u0131\u015flar beklentisi endeksinin 121.3 ile y\u00fczde 2.5 artmas\u0131 (bir \u00f6nceki ay da y\u00fczde 4 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131), gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik iyimserli\u011fin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu bize g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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KONUT KRED\u0130LER\u0130NE KOLAYLIK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bakal\u0131m. Endeks, konut piyasas\u0131nda al\u0131nan tedbirler nedeniyle kredili sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fczde 50 olarak ocak-a\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden etkilenmi\u015f olacak ki, 2024 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 87.8\u2019e y\u00fczde 0.2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Gerek al\u0131nan sipari\u015flerin mevcut d\u00fczeyi 82.4 ile gerekse gelecek 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde toplam \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131 beklentisi 93.2 ile karamsar bir tablo \u00e7iziyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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BDDK, son ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararla risk gruplar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitti\u011finden konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde canl\u0131l\u0131k s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. BDDK, 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2024 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamayla bireysel ve konut kredilerinde risk a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu durumda bankalar\u0131n konut kredisi kulland\u0131rmas\u0131na da kolayl\u0131k gelmi\u015f oldu. Kald\u0131 ki, bir kamu bankas\u0131 da konut kredi faizinde indirim kampanyas\u0131 d\u00fczenleyerek, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle konut kredisi m\u00fcracaatlar\u0131 almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de g\u00fcven endeksinin y\u00fckselmesine destek verebilir. Ancak bu geli\u015fmeyle konut fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fe yol a\u00e7ma riskinin de bulundu\u011funu unutmamak laz\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>


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hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>","slug":"piyasa-gelecege-nasil-bakiyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727643600mmk2wF4Hoe6HnoV.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727643600mmk2wF4Hoe6HnoV.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":"Piyasa gelece\u011fe nas\u0131l bak\u0131yor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":6345,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}