{"status":true,"post":{"id":43531,"user_id":22,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-09-18 09:29:00","created_at":"2023-09-18T06:29:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-09-18T06:29:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":43531,"is_featured":0,"title":"OVP ne s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"OSMAN ARIO\u011eLU","content":"


<\/p>

Orta Vadeli Program (OVP), her y\u0131l eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klanan en \u00f6nemli ekonomik hedefler ve tahminler metnidir. Her y\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de bir \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019de kalan y\u0131llar hedefleri revize edilerek ve yeni bir y\u0131l eklenerek devam edilir. OVP\u2019nin daha ziyade dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler ise h\u00fck\u00fcmet de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi veya ekonomide k\u00f6kl\u00fc politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde olur. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan taraf\u0131ndan kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r temsilcilerinden olu\u015fan geni\u015f kat\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir toplant\u0131 ile kamuoyuna duyurulan ve ana hatlar\u0131 ile Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan OVP, temel bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sonras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan en kapsaml\u0131 ekonomik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc metni olmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan geni\u015f yank\u0131 uyand\u0131rd\u0131. OVP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n bizzat kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve destek vurgusuyla yap\u0131lmas\u0131, elbette yeni ekonomik programa hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f ekonomik \u00e7evrelerin g\u00fcveni bak\u0131m\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdeydi. Bu nedenle olsa gerek ki, Y\u0131lmaz, sunumunda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle \u00e7izdi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

OVP \u0130LE A\u00c7IKLANAN HEDEFLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

A\u00e7\u0131klanan hedeflerde elbette herkesin en \u00e7ok dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi veriler, enflasyon ve kur tahminleri oldu. OVP\u2019de do\u011frudan bir kur tahmini verilmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in de enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 yan\u0131nda TL ve dolar olarak verilen milli gelir rakamlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131narak kur \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. \u015eu an en \u00f6ncelikli konu, program\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ili\u011fi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de 2023 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 65\u2019e revize edilmesi de\u011ferli bulundu. Tabii en fazla teredd\u00fct konusu da 2024 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 33 olmas\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda biraz iddial\u0131 bulunabilir. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu hedef de en az\u0131ndan matematik olarak tutturulamaz bir hedef de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Biz rakamlar konusunda kendi de\u011ferlendirmemize ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce program hedeflerinin tutturulabilmesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ilk y\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l ilkbaharda mahalli idare se\u00e7imlerinin olaca\u011f\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131narak, at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu vurgulamak isteriz. \u0130\u00e7eride enflasyonla m\u00fccadele edilirken, bunun hi\u00e7 ac\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 elbette \u00f6ng\u00f6rmemek gerekir. Ancak bu dozaj\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi ve bizim cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki kal\u0131c\u0131 hamlelerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 belirleyecek. \u00d6zellikle savunma sanayi alan\u0131nda her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artan ihracat kapasitesi ile bu konuda \u00fcmitvar olunabilecek. \u00d6zellikle petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve artan yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumlu etkileyecek temel unsurlard\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK SEYR\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu yaz\u0131 haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri ve temmuz ay\u0131 cari i\u015flemler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130lk 7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde cari i\u015flemlerde 42.2 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verilmi\u015fti. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinde ise bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ciddi bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Turizm d\u00f6vizleri de i\u015fin i\u00e7ine girdi\u011finde cari a\u00e7\u0131kta a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda iyile\u015fme olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. Bu tespiti \u00f6zellikle dile getirmemizin nedeni, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ve kur seviyesinin do\u011fal olarak makul kalabilmesi i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131k seyrinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekmek. Bu arada yay\u0131nlanan reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyon rakamlar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak genel kan\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan kurun enflasyon kadar y\u00fckselmesinin hem d\u0131\u015f ticaret hem de cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan do\u011fru bir tercih olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. OVP sat\u0131r aralar\u0131ndan da bu izlenim sa\u011flan\u0131yor. Kurun uzun bir s\u00fcre de\u011ferli seyretmesinin enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine olan olumlu etkisi yan\u0131nda, yan sanayide ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara sebebiyet verdi\u011fi, \u00f6zellikle t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131 patlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rarak sorunu kronikle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerde test edildi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

A\u00e7\u0131klanan OVP\u2019de yap\u0131sal reform ad\u0131mlar\u0131 da kapsaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ifade edilmi\u015f. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin siyaseten hi\u00e7 de kolay bir durum olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun da g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda toplumda ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131ya ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha da bozulmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011funu unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. At\u0131lacak tedbir ad\u0131mlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerden istifade ile so\u011fukkanl\u0131 ve kararl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 de\u011ferli olacak. Bu anlamda \u015fu ana kadarki gidi\u015fata bakarak mevcut ekonomi y\u00f6netimine g\u00fcven duymam\u0131z ve biraz sab\u0131r g\u00f6stermemiz gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 tekrar \u00e7izmek isterim.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ovp-ne-soyluyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1694984400jYo9nCN8SkVuU2a.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":2144,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":22,"name":"OSMAN","surname":"ARIO\u011eLU","email":"osman-arioglu@gmail.com","slug":"osman-arioglu","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600PhnV7uz5limxSFX.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:41.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":43657,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":43531,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"OVP ne s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"OSMAN ARIO\u011eLU","content":"


<\/p>

Orta Vadeli Program (OVP), her y\u0131l eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klanan en \u00f6nemli ekonomik hedefler ve tahminler metnidir. Her y\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de bir \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019de kalan y\u0131llar hedefleri revize edilerek ve yeni bir y\u0131l eklenerek devam edilir. OVP\u2019nin daha ziyade dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler ise h\u00fck\u00fcmet de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi veya ekonomide k\u00f6kl\u00fc politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde olur. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan taraf\u0131ndan kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r temsilcilerinden olu\u015fan geni\u015f kat\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir toplant\u0131 ile kamuoyuna duyurulan ve ana hatlar\u0131 ile Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan OVP, temel bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sonras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan en kapsaml\u0131 ekonomik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc metni olmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan geni\u015f yank\u0131 uyand\u0131rd\u0131. OVP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n bizzat kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve destek vurgusuyla yap\u0131lmas\u0131, elbette yeni ekonomik programa hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f ekonomik \u00e7evrelerin g\u00fcveni bak\u0131m\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdeydi. Bu nedenle olsa gerek ki, Y\u0131lmaz, sunumunda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle \u00e7izdi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

OVP \u0130LE A\u00c7IKLANAN HEDEFLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

A\u00e7\u0131klanan hedeflerde elbette herkesin en \u00e7ok dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi veriler, enflasyon ve kur tahminleri oldu. OVP\u2019de do\u011frudan bir kur tahmini verilmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in de enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 yan\u0131nda TL ve dolar olarak verilen milli gelir rakamlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131narak kur \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. \u015eu an en \u00f6ncelikli konu, program\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ili\u011fi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de 2023 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 65\u2019e revize edilmesi de\u011ferli bulundu. Tabii en fazla teredd\u00fct konusu da 2024 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 33 olmas\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda biraz iddial\u0131 bulunabilir. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu hedef de en az\u0131ndan matematik olarak tutturulamaz bir hedef de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Biz rakamlar konusunda kendi de\u011ferlendirmemize ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce program hedeflerinin tutturulabilmesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ilk y\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l ilkbaharda mahalli idare se\u00e7imlerinin olaca\u011f\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131narak, at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu vurgulamak isteriz. \u0130\u00e7eride enflasyonla m\u00fccadele edilirken, bunun hi\u00e7 ac\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 elbette \u00f6ng\u00f6rmemek gerekir. Ancak bu dozaj\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi ve bizim cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki kal\u0131c\u0131 hamlelerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 belirleyecek. \u00d6zellikle savunma sanayi alan\u0131nda her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artan ihracat kapasitesi ile bu konuda \u00fcmitvar olunabilecek. \u00d6zellikle petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve artan yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumlu etkileyecek temel unsurlard\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK SEYR\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu yaz\u0131 haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri ve temmuz ay\u0131 cari i\u015flemler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130lk 7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde cari i\u015flemlerde 42.2 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verilmi\u015fti. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinde ise bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ciddi bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Turizm d\u00f6vizleri de i\u015fin i\u00e7ine girdi\u011finde cari a\u00e7\u0131kta a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda iyile\u015fme olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. Bu tespiti \u00f6zellikle dile getirmemizin nedeni, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ve kur seviyesinin do\u011fal olarak makul kalabilmesi i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131k seyrinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekmek. Bu arada yay\u0131nlanan reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyon rakamlar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak genel kan\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan kurun enflasyon kadar y\u00fckselmesinin hem d\u0131\u015f ticaret hem de cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan do\u011fru bir tercih olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. OVP sat\u0131r aralar\u0131ndan da bu izlenim sa\u011flan\u0131yor. Kurun uzun bir s\u00fcre de\u011ferli seyretmesinin enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine olan olumlu etkisi yan\u0131nda, yan sanayide ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara sebebiyet verdi\u011fi, \u00f6zellikle t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131 patlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rarak sorunu kronikle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerde test edildi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

A\u00e7\u0131klanan OVP\u2019de yap\u0131sal reform ad\u0131mlar\u0131 da kapsaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ifade edilmi\u015f. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin siyaseten hi\u00e7 de kolay bir durum olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun da g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda toplumda ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131ya ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha da bozulmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011funu unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. At\u0131lacak tedbir ad\u0131mlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerden istifade ile so\u011fukkanl\u0131 ve kararl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 de\u011ferli olacak. Bu anlamda \u015fu ana kadarki gidi\u015fata bakarak mevcut ekonomi y\u00f6netimine g\u00fcven duymam\u0131z ve biraz sab\u0131r g\u00f6stermemiz gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 tekrar \u00e7izmek isterim.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ovp-ne-soyluyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1694984400jYo9nCN8SkVuU2a.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1694984400jYo9nCN8SkVuU2a.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":2144,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}