{"status":true,"post":{"id":44198,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-10-09 07:58:00","created_at":"2023-10-09T04:58:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-10-09T04:58:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":44198,"is_featured":0,"title":"Orta vadeli program tutarl\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Orta Vadeli Program, enflasyonun kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesini ve finansal istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor. Bu ama\u00e7la haz\u0131rlanan program, say\u0131sal hedefleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kendi i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tutarl\u0131. Program, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 ile e\u015f g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc olarak enflasyonun 3 y\u0131l sonra tek haneye indirilmesini hedefliyor. Say\u0131sal hedefler genel olarak yol g\u00f6sterici olarak kabul g\u00f6rebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. PROGRAMIN D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURU VARSAYIMLARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Programda kullan\u0131lan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 bir hedef veya taahh\u00fct de\u011fil, varsay\u0131mlard\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 i\u00e7in hedeflenen dolar\/TL kuru 23.88\u2019dir. Buna g\u00f6re dolar kurunun 2023 sonunu 30 TL seviyesinden kapatmas\u0131 gerekiyor. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 dolar kur varsay\u0131m\u0131 36.8 TL ve y\u0131l sonu dolar kuru varsay\u0131m\u0131 ise 42.2 TL\u2019dir. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda ve \u00f6zellikle 2024\u2019te de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. B\u00dcY\u00dcME VE T\u00dcKET\u0130M HARCAMALARI YAVA\u015eLAYACAK \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda enflasyon ile m\u00fccadele hedefi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fczde 4.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi konuldu ve bu ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ile sa\u011flanacak. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 3.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi hedefleniyor. Bunun i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle para politikas\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha kuvvetli bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacak. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 en az 10 puan daha y\u00fckseltmesi, t\u00fcketici kredileri faizlerinin y\u00fczde 50\u2019yi a\u015fmas\u0131, kredi ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda yeni k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar getirilmesi beklenmeli. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki bu yava\u015flama, t\u00fcm mal gruplar\u0131ndaki harcamalar\u0131 da yava\u015flatacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. YATIRIMLARDA YAVA\u015eLAMA DAHA SINIRLI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program d\u00f6neminde toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yava\u015flama hedefleniyor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam yat\u0131r\u0131mlar y\u00fczde 5.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 3.6, 2025\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 3.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.3 iken, 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 0.3, 2025\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 0.6 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Depremle ili\u015fkili yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kamunun bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ask\u0131ya almas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4.0, 2025\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme, in\u015faat ve makina te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kaps\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2024 ve 2025 y\u0131llar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme, y\u00fczde 4-5 aras\u0131na gerileyecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. \u0130HRACATTA TEMK\u0130NL\u0130 HEDEFLER\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda 254.2 milyar dolar olan ihracat\u0131n 2023\u2019te 255 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. 2024\u2019te ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.7 ve ihracat 267 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2023 ve 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ihracat hedefleri ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. K\u00fcresel ekonomideki yava\u015flama 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da s\u00fcrecek. Bu nedenle 2024\u2019te de ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f olacak. ABD, AB ve \u0130ngiltere pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. \u0130hracatta pazar, \u00fcr\u00fcn ve m\u00fc\u015fteri \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesi ihtiyac\u0131 artt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. DEPREM HARCAMALARI NEDEN\u0130YLE Y\u00dcKSEK B\u00dcT\u00c7E A\u00c7I\u011eI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Zorunlu deprem harcamalar\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00fct\u00e7e, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2.65 trilyon TL ve GSY\u0130H oran\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 6.4 gibi y\u00fcksek bir a\u00e7\u0131k verecek. Bu y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131k, mali disiplinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. Enflasyonist etkileri olacak. Y\u00fcksek harcamalar\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ilave vergiler, bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc d\u0131\u015f kaynaklar ve bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de bor\u00e7lanma ile kar\u015f\u0131lanacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

6. ENFLASYON 2024 HAZ\u0130RANDAN SONRA D\u00dc\u015eECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program\u0131n temel amac\u0131, enflasyonu kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak tek haneli enflasyona ula\u015fmakt\u0131r. Programla tek haneli enflasyona 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 65\u2019tir. 2024 sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 33, 2025 sonu i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 15.2 hedefi konuldu. Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r ve firmalar, ekonomide rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f kapsam\u0131ndaki yeni politikalara uyum sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedeflemeli.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"orta-vadeli-program-tutarli-ve-gercekci","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1696798800wVEfeDmqRgmXqv9.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1932,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":44324,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":44198,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Orta vadeli program tutarl\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Orta Vadeli Program, enflasyonun kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesini ve finansal istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor. Bu ama\u00e7la haz\u0131rlanan program, say\u0131sal hedefleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kendi i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tutarl\u0131. Program, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 ile e\u015f g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc olarak enflasyonun 3 y\u0131l sonra tek haneye indirilmesini hedefliyor. Say\u0131sal hedefler genel olarak yol g\u00f6sterici olarak kabul g\u00f6rebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. PROGRAMIN D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURU VARSAYIMLARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Programda kullan\u0131lan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 bir hedef veya taahh\u00fct de\u011fil, varsay\u0131mlard\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 i\u00e7in hedeflenen dolar\/TL kuru 23.88\u2019dir. Buna g\u00f6re dolar kurunun 2023 sonunu 30 TL seviyesinden kapatmas\u0131 gerekiyor. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 dolar kur varsay\u0131m\u0131 36.8 TL ve y\u0131l sonu dolar kuru varsay\u0131m\u0131 ise 42.2 TL\u2019dir. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda ve \u00f6zellikle 2024\u2019te de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. B\u00dcY\u00dcME VE T\u00dcKET\u0130M HARCAMALARI YAVA\u015eLAYACAK \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda enflasyon ile m\u00fccadele hedefi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fczde 4.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi konuldu ve bu ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ile sa\u011flanacak. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 3.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi hedefleniyor. Bunun i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle para politikas\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha kuvvetli bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacak. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 en az 10 puan daha y\u00fckseltmesi, t\u00fcketici kredileri faizlerinin y\u00fczde 50\u2019yi a\u015fmas\u0131, kredi ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda yeni k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar getirilmesi beklenmeli. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki bu yava\u015flama, t\u00fcm mal gruplar\u0131ndaki harcamalar\u0131 da yava\u015flatacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. YATIRIMLARDA YAVA\u015eLAMA DAHA SINIRLI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program d\u00f6neminde toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yava\u015flama hedefleniyor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam yat\u0131r\u0131mlar y\u00fczde 5.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 3.6, 2025\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 3.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.3 iken, 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 0.3, 2025\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 0.6 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Depremle ili\u015fkili yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kamunun bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ask\u0131ya almas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4.0, 2025\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme, in\u015faat ve makina te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kaps\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2024 ve 2025 y\u0131llar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme, y\u00fczde 4-5 aras\u0131na gerileyecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. \u0130HRACATTA TEMK\u0130NL\u0130 HEDEFLER\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda 254.2 milyar dolar olan ihracat\u0131n 2023\u2019te 255 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. 2024\u2019te ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.7 ve ihracat 267 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2023 ve 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ihracat hedefleri ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. K\u00fcresel ekonomideki yava\u015flama 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da s\u00fcrecek. Bu nedenle 2024\u2019te de ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f olacak. ABD, AB ve \u0130ngiltere pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. \u0130hracatta pazar, \u00fcr\u00fcn ve m\u00fc\u015fteri \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesi ihtiyac\u0131 artt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. DEPREM HARCAMALARI NEDEN\u0130YLE Y\u00dcKSEK B\u00dcT\u00c7E A\u00c7I\u011eI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Zorunlu deprem harcamalar\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00fct\u00e7e, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2.65 trilyon TL ve GSY\u0130H oran\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 6.4 gibi y\u00fcksek bir a\u00e7\u0131k verecek. Bu y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131k, mali disiplinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. Enflasyonist etkileri olacak. Y\u00fcksek harcamalar\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ilave vergiler, bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc d\u0131\u015f kaynaklar ve bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de bor\u00e7lanma ile kar\u015f\u0131lanacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

6. ENFLASYON 2024 HAZ\u0130RANDAN SONRA D\u00dc\u015eECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program\u0131n temel amac\u0131, enflasyonu kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak tek haneli enflasyona ula\u015fmakt\u0131r. Programla tek haneli enflasyona 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 65\u2019tir. 2024 sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 33, 2025 sonu i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 15.2 hedefi konuldu. Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r ve firmalar, ekonomide rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f kapsam\u0131ndaki yeni politikalara uyum sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedeflemeli.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"orta-vadeli-program-tutarli-ve-gercekci","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1696798800wVEfeDmqRgmXqv9.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1696798800wVEfeDmqRgmXqv9.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1932,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}