{"status":true,"post":{"id":55452,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-09-23 07:38:00","created_at":"2024-09-23T04:38:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-09-23T05:37:01.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":55452,"is_featured":0,"title":"Orta vadeli program i\u015flerimizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


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2025-2027 d\u00f6nemi Orta Vadeli Program\u2019\u0131n (OVP) temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi enflasyonla m\u00fccadeledir. Program\u0131n makroekonomik hedefleri, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele \u00f6nceli\u011fine uygun olarak belirlendi. Temel hedef g\u00f6sterge olan enflasyon i\u00e7in 2024 beklentisi y\u00fczde 41.5, 2025 y\u0131lsonu hedefi ise y\u00fczde 17.5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6zellikle 2025 y\u0131lsonu hedefi iddial\u0131 bir hedef ve bu hedefe ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 devam ettirilecek. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yeni OVP\u2019nin i\u015flerimizi nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

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1. 2025\u2019TE DOLAR KURUNDA Y\u00dcZDE 26.4 ARTI\u015e VARSAYILIYOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

OVP haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken baz\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler i\u00e7in varsay\u0131mlarda bulunuluyor. Bunlardan biri, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlard\u0131r. OVP\u2019nin 2024 biti\u015f ile 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar\/TL kuru varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle: 2024 sonunda dolar\/TL kurunun 36.95 TL seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131ld\u0131. 2024 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 33.22 TL olacak. 2025 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 dolar varsay\u0131m\u0131 42.00 TL ve y\u0131lsonu ise 47.05 TL\u2019dir. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 26.4 de\u011fer kaybedece\u011fi varsay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

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2. 2025 YILSONU ENFLASYON HEDEF\u0130 \u0130\u00c7\u0130N SIKILA\u015eMA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI S\u00dcRECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131lsonu y\u00fczde 17.5 T\u00dcFE hedefi, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile isti\u015fare i\u00e7inde belirlendi. Merkez Bankas\u0131 da 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon hedefini bu \u015fekilde g\u00fcncelleyecek. Y\u00fczde 17.5 ula\u015f\u0131labilir bir hedef. Ancak i\u00e7 talebin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bask\u0131lanmaya devam etmesi gerekiyor. 2025 y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 17.5 T\u00dcFE hedefine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 devam edecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizi, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve likidite s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 gibi uygulamalar, en az\u0131ndan bu y\u0131lsonuna kadar s\u00fcrecek. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren faiz indirimleri ba\u015flayabilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. YEN\u0130 VERG\u0130 PAKETLER\u0130 \u0130LE YEN\u0130 VERG\u0130LER GELEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Maliye politikas\u0131, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini daha \u00e7ok destekleyecek. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda deprem harcamalar\u0131yla artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda milli gelire oranla y\u00fczde 3.1 olacak ve normalle\u015fecek. Bu hedefe ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131nda ilk vergi paketi ile gelen yeni d\u00fczenlemelerin etkisi olacak. Muhtemelen yeni vergi paketleri ve vergiler de gelecek.<\/span><\/p>

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4. \u0130HRACATTA SINIRLI ARTI\u015e \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcS\u00dc\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.9 artarak 279.6 milyar dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131nda toparlanman\u0131n yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. 2025 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 dolar\/TL kuru 42 TL, ihracat\u0131 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re daha \u00e7ok destekleyen bir kur seviyesi olacak. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k 28.6 milyar dolar ve milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.0 olarak hedefleniyor. Bu seviyedeki cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00f6viz\/finansman ihtiyac\u0131 rahat kar\u015f\u0131lanacak. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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5. 2025\u2019TE \u00dcCRET ARTI\u015eLARI Y\u00dcZDE 25-30 ARASINDA GER\u00c7EKLE\u015eEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fccretlerin hedeflenen enflasyon kadar art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 seviyesi, i\u015fverenler ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar i\u00e7in \u00e7ok kritik olacak. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda asgari \u00fccrete ve di\u011fer \u00fccretlere azami y\u00fczde 25-30 aras\u0131 art\u0131\u015f beklenmeli. Bu seviyedeki \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma bar\u0131\u015f\u0131, hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n refah\u0131 ve program\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131lanacak; bu \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

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6. YILIN \u0130LK YARISINDA \u0130\u015eLER\u0130M\u0130Z \u0130\u00c7\u0130N ZORLU KO\u015eULLAR DEVAM EDECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en az\u0131ndan 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n aynen s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, finansmana eri\u015fimin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131, maliyetlerdeki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kademeli olarak yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ihracat olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin de bask\u0131lanmaya devam edece\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem olacak. Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse s\u0131kla\u015fma politikalar\u0131 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda gev\u015femeye ba\u015flayacak ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in daha uygun ko\u015fullara sahip olabilecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek, i\u015flerimizde varl\u0131klar\u0131 korumak temel \u00f6ncelik olmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>


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<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>","slug":"orta-vadeli-program-islerimizi-nasil-etkileyecek-","tags":"OVP,dolar,enflasyon,vergi,ihracat","meta_title":"Orta vadeli program i\u015flerimizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"OVP dolar enflasyon vergi ihracat","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727038800PqW56VhmwjRMBlO.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":7854,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":55578,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":55452,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Orta vadeli program i\u015flerimizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


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2025-2027 d\u00f6nemi Orta Vadeli Program\u2019\u0131n (OVP) temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi enflasyonla m\u00fccadeledir. Program\u0131n makroekonomik hedefleri, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele \u00f6nceli\u011fine uygun olarak belirlendi. Temel hedef g\u00f6sterge olan enflasyon i\u00e7in 2024 beklentisi y\u00fczde 41.5, 2025 y\u0131lsonu hedefi ise y\u00fczde 17.5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6zellikle 2025 y\u0131lsonu hedefi iddial\u0131 bir hedef ve bu hedefe ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 devam ettirilecek. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yeni OVP\u2019nin i\u015flerimizi nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. 2025\u2019TE DOLAR KURUNDA Y\u00dcZDE 26.4 ARTI\u015e VARSAYILIYOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

OVP haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken baz\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler i\u00e7in varsay\u0131mlarda bulunuluyor. Bunlardan biri, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlard\u0131r. OVP\u2019nin 2024 biti\u015f ile 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar\/TL kuru varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle: 2024 sonunda dolar\/TL kurunun 36.95 TL seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131ld\u0131. 2024 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 33.22 TL olacak. 2025 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 dolar varsay\u0131m\u0131 42.00 TL ve y\u0131lsonu ise 47.05 TL\u2019dir. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 26.4 de\u011fer kaybedece\u011fi varsay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. 2025 YILSONU ENFLASYON HEDEF\u0130 \u0130\u00c7\u0130N SIKILA\u015eMA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI S\u00dcRECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131lsonu y\u00fczde 17.5 T\u00dcFE hedefi, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile isti\u015fare i\u00e7inde belirlendi. Merkez Bankas\u0131 da 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon hedefini bu \u015fekilde g\u00fcncelleyecek. Y\u00fczde 17.5 ula\u015f\u0131labilir bir hedef. Ancak i\u00e7 talebin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bask\u0131lanmaya devam etmesi gerekiyor. 2025 y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 17.5 T\u00dcFE hedefine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 devam edecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizi, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve likidite s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 gibi uygulamalar, en az\u0131ndan bu y\u0131lsonuna kadar s\u00fcrecek. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren faiz indirimleri ba\u015flayabilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. YEN\u0130 VERG\u0130 PAKETLER\u0130 \u0130LE YEN\u0130 VERG\u0130LER GELEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Maliye politikas\u0131, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini daha \u00e7ok destekleyecek. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda deprem harcamalar\u0131yla artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda milli gelire oranla y\u00fczde 3.1 olacak ve normalle\u015fecek. Bu hedefe ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131nda ilk vergi paketi ile gelen yeni d\u00fczenlemelerin etkisi olacak. Muhtemelen yeni vergi paketleri ve vergiler de gelecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. \u0130HRACATTA SINIRLI ARTI\u015e \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcS\u00dc\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.9 artarak 279.6 milyar dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131nda toparlanman\u0131n yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. 2025 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 dolar\/TL kuru 42 TL, ihracat\u0131 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re daha \u00e7ok destekleyen bir kur seviyesi olacak. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k 28.6 milyar dolar ve milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.0 olarak hedefleniyor. Bu seviyedeki cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00f6viz\/finansman ihtiyac\u0131 rahat kar\u015f\u0131lanacak. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. 2025\u2019TE \u00dcCRET ARTI\u015eLARI Y\u00dcZDE 25-30 ARASINDA GER\u00c7EKLE\u015eEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fccretlerin hedeflenen enflasyon kadar art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 seviyesi, i\u015fverenler ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar i\u00e7in \u00e7ok kritik olacak. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda asgari \u00fccrete ve di\u011fer \u00fccretlere azami y\u00fczde 25-30 aras\u0131 art\u0131\u015f beklenmeli. Bu seviyedeki \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma bar\u0131\u015f\u0131, hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n refah\u0131 ve program\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131lanacak; bu \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. YILIN \u0130LK YARISINDA \u0130\u015eLER\u0130M\u0130Z \u0130\u00c7\u0130N ZORLU KO\u015eULLAR DEVAM EDECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en az\u0131ndan 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n aynen s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, finansmana eri\u015fimin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131, maliyetlerdeki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kademeli olarak yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ihracat olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin de bask\u0131lanmaya devam edece\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem olacak. Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse s\u0131kla\u015fma politikalar\u0131 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda gev\u015femeye ba\u015flayacak ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in daha uygun ko\u015fullara sahip olabilecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek, i\u015flerimizde varl\u0131klar\u0131 korumak temel \u00f6ncelik olmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>


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<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>","slug":"orta-vadeli-program-islerimizi-nasil-etkileyecek-","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727038800PqW56VhmwjRMBlO.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727038800PqW56VhmwjRMBlO.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"OVP,dolar,enflasyon,vergi,ihracat","meta_title":"Orta vadeli program i\u015flerimizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"OVP dolar enflasyon vergi ihracat","view_count":7854,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}