{"status":true,"post":{"id":74076,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-09-12 08:39:00","created_at":"2025-09-12T05:39:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-09-12T05:39:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-09-12 08:39:00","source_id":null,"post_id":74076,"is_featured":0,"title":"Orta Vadeli Plan bizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"Orta Vadeli Plan bizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

2026-2028 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) 8 Eyl\u00fcl 2025 g\u00fcn\u00fc Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mland\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2025, 2026, 2027 ve 2028 y\u0131llar\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve dolar kuru tahminleri netle\u015fti.<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

NELER DE\u011e\u0130\u015eT\u0130?<\/strong><\/p>

Bir \u00f6nceki plana g\u00f6re 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 17.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 28.5 seviyesine y\u00fckseltilirken, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 9.7\u2019den y\u00fczde 16\u2019ya, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 7\u2019den y\u00fczde 9\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2027 dahil enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f oldu. 2028 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise ilk kez tahminde bulunulurken, bir \u00f6nceki tahminde 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 7 enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131n bile daha \u00fczerinde y\u00fczde 8 olarak 2028 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>


<\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 8.5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.4, 2028 y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.2 oran\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahmini 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2\u2019den y\u00fczde 1.4\u2019e, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.3\u2019e indirildi. \u0130hracat\u0131n 2025 sonunda 273.8 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edilirken, 2026'da 282 milyar dolar, 2027'de 294 milyar dolar, program sonunda 308.5 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Son OVP'ye g\u00f6re ithalat\u0131n bu y\u0131l sonunda 367 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, 2026'da 378 milyar dolar, 2027'de 393 milyar dolar, 2028'de de 410.5 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/p>


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BU DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130KL\u0130KLER\u0130N B\u0130ZE ETK\u0130S\u0130 NE OLACAK?<\/strong><\/p>

Enflasyonla ilgili beklentilerin y\u00fckseltilmesi, \u00f6ncelikle 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa beklentilerine yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olurken, hedef enflasyonun yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 dozunun daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon hedefi i\u00e7in i\u00e7 talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirlerin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekecekti.<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tahmininin bir \u00f6ncekine g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi olumlu gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de en son T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fsizlik verisi y\u00fczde 8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, OVP tahminlerine g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik artacak anlam\u0131na gelir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u015fsizlik verisi tahmini en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan i\u015fsizlik verisinden daha y\u00fcksek ve y\u00fczde 8.5.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahmini de de\u011fi\u015ferek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Burada iki fakt\u00f6r devreye giriyor. Ya enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ciddi d\u00fc\u015ferek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak ya da ithalat azalacak. \u0130thalat\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde ise a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k hammadde ve ara mal\u0131 oldu\u011fundan ithalat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ikame \u00fcr\u00fcn konulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na da geliyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere baz\u0131 tahminler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve bu tahminlere g\u00f6re de hareket edilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Ancak her y\u0131l bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131klanan OVP\u2019de ciddi revizyonlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131, g\u00fcveni de ciddi \u015fekilde zedeliyor. Bizlerin uzun zamand\u0131r dile getirdi\u011fi y\u00fczde 28-30 band\u0131nda bekledi\u011fimiz enflasyon rakam\u0131na nihayet yeni gelinmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. Enflasyonu h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Ancak bunun ekonomiye bir maliyeti olur.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Burada \u00f6nemli olan tahmini rakamlar vermekten ziyade, bu rakamlara gelmek i\u00e7in nas\u0131l bir yol haritas\u0131 izlenece\u011finin detayland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece piyasa da \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rebilecek ve daha rahat hareket edebilecek. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019de neden y\u00fczde 17.5 enflasyon tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu hedefe varmak i\u00e7in neler yap\u0131lacakt\u0131, nerede ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olundu ve y\u00fczde 28.5 enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131 hangi politikalarla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fiz?\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>","slug":"orta-vadeli-plan-bizi-nasil-etkileyecek","tags":null,"meta_title":"Orta Vadeli Plan bizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","meta_description":"2026-2028 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) 8 Eyl\u00fcl 2025 g\u00fcn\u00fc Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mland\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2025, 2026, 2027 ve 2028 y\u0131llar\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve dolar kuru tahminleri netle\u015fti.","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17576244002bGBYxDzRn3TBER.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/orta-vadeli-plan-bizi-nasil-etkileyecek_1200x675_LGSy892Vq0.webp","user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":74208,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":74076,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Orta Vadeli Plan bizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","home_title":"Orta Vadeli Plan bizi nas\u0131l etkileyecek?","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

2026-2028 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) 8 Eyl\u00fcl 2025 g\u00fcn\u00fc Resmi Gazete\u2019de yay\u0131mland\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2025, 2026, 2027 ve 2028 y\u0131llar\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve dolar kuru tahminleri netle\u015fti.<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

NELER DE\u011e\u0130\u015eT\u0130?<\/strong><\/p>

Bir \u00f6nceki plana g\u00f6re 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 17.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 28.5 seviyesine y\u00fckseltilirken, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 9.7\u2019den y\u00fczde 16\u2019ya, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 7\u2019den y\u00fczde 9\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2027 dahil enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f oldu. 2028 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise ilk kez tahminde bulunulurken, bir \u00f6nceki tahminde 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 7 enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131n bile daha \u00fczerinde y\u00fczde 8 olarak 2028 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>


<\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 8.5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.4, 2028 y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.2 oran\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahmini 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2\u2019den y\u00fczde 1.4\u2019e, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.3\u2019e indirildi. \u0130hracat\u0131n 2025 sonunda 273.8 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edilirken, 2026'da 282 milyar dolar, 2027'de 294 milyar dolar, program sonunda 308.5 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Son OVP'ye g\u00f6re ithalat\u0131n bu y\u0131l sonunda 367 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, 2026'da 378 milyar dolar, 2027'de 393 milyar dolar, 2028'de de 410.5 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

BU DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130KL\u0130KLER\u0130N B\u0130ZE ETK\u0130S\u0130 NE OLACAK?<\/strong><\/p>

Enflasyonla ilgili beklentilerin y\u00fckseltilmesi, \u00f6ncelikle 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa beklentilerine yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olurken, hedef enflasyonun yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 dozunun daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon hedefi i\u00e7in i\u00e7 talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirlerin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekecekti.<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tahmininin bir \u00f6ncekine g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi olumlu gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de en son T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fsizlik verisi y\u00fczde 8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, OVP tahminlerine g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik artacak anlam\u0131na gelir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u015fsizlik verisi tahmini en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan i\u015fsizlik verisinden daha y\u00fcksek ve y\u00fczde 8.5.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahmini de de\u011fi\u015ferek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Burada iki fakt\u00f6r devreye giriyor. Ya enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ciddi d\u00fc\u015ferek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak ya da ithalat azalacak. \u0130thalat\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde ise a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k hammadde ve ara mal\u0131 oldu\u011fundan ithalat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ikame \u00fcr\u00fcn konulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na da geliyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere baz\u0131 tahminler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve bu tahminlere g\u00f6re de hareket edilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Ancak her y\u0131l bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131klanan OVP\u2019de ciddi revizyonlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131, g\u00fcveni de ciddi \u015fekilde zedeliyor. Bizlerin uzun zamand\u0131r dile getirdi\u011fi y\u00fczde 28-30 band\u0131nda bekledi\u011fimiz enflasyon rakam\u0131na nihayet yeni gelinmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. Enflasyonu h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Ancak bunun ekonomiye bir maliyeti olur.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Burada \u00f6nemli olan tahmini rakamlar vermekten ziyade, bu rakamlara gelmek i\u00e7in nas\u0131l bir yol haritas\u0131 izlenece\u011finin detayland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece piyasa da \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rebilecek ve daha rahat hareket edebilecek. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u00f6nceki OVP\u2019de neden y\u00fczde 17.5 enflasyon tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu hedefe varmak i\u00e7in neler yap\u0131lacakt\u0131, nerede ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olundu ve y\u00fczde 28.5 enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131 hangi politikalarla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fiz?\u00a0<\/p>


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