{"status":true,"post":{"id":49356,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-03-04 08:56:00","created_at":"2024-03-04T05:56:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-03-04T05:56:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":49356,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ocak 2024 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Ocak 2024 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2023 ocak ay\u0131nda dolar 18.70 TL civar\u0131ndayken 19 milyar 324 milyon dolarl\u0131k ihracat yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015fken, 2024 ocak ay\u0131nda dolar 30 TL civar\u0131ndayken ihracat rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.6 yani 704 milyon dolar art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Kur y\u00fczde 67 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f, yani TL y\u00fczde 67 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f, ancak ihracat sadece y\u00fczde 3.6 artabilmi\u015ftir. Buradan kurlar\u0131n ihracat\u0131 ne kadar destekleyebildi\u011fi de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fczde 65 civar\u0131 T\u00dcFE ya\u015fatan (piyasan\u0131n hissetti\u011fi enflasyon daha y\u00fcksek) kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihracat avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flayamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim ithalata\u2026 2023 ocak ay\u0131nda ithalat 33.601 milyon dolar iken 2024 ocak ay\u0131nda 26.201 milyon dolara d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Burada akl\u0131n\u0131za hemen pahal\u0131 kur nedeniyle ithalat yava\u015flayarak yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretime mi d\u00f6nd\u00fc sorusu akl\u0131n\u0131za gelebilir, ancak durum pek de \u00f6yle de\u011fil. Y\u00fczde 22 ithalat daralmas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki ana sebep, enerji ithalat\u0131yla alakal\u0131. Ocak 2023\u2019te \u2018mineral yak\u0131tlar, mineral ya\u011flar ve bunlar\u0131n dam\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131ndan elde edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnler, bit\u00fcmenli maddeler ve mineral mumlar\u2019 grubunda ithalat 8.794.088.000 dolar iken, 2024 ocak ay\u0131nda 6.534.699.000 dolara, y\u00fczde 25.7 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. \u0130\u015fte ithalattaki daralma da bu kalemlerden geliyor. Ham petrol ithalat\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 7.3 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130\u00c7 TALEB\u0130N DARALMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak ay\u0131nda Geni\u015f Ekonomik Gruplar\u0131n (BEC) s\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131na g\u00f6re, en \u00e7ok ihracat 9 milyar 946 milyon dolarla (y\u00fczde 1.5 art\u0131\u015f) \u2018hammadde (ara mallar\u0131)\u2019 grubunda yap\u0131l\u0131rken, bu grubu s\u0131ras\u0131yla 7 milyar 346 milyon dolarla (y\u00fczde 3.2 art\u0131\u015f) \u2018t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131\u2019 ve 2 milyar 623 milyon dolarla (y\u00fczde 13.8 art\u0131\u015f) \u2018yat\u0131r\u0131m (sermaye) mallar\u0131\u2019 gruplar\u0131 takip etti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Burada t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u00e7 talebi daraltarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek hedeflenirken, \u00fcretilen \u00fcr\u00fcnler g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere mevcut kurlar \u00fczerinden yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na pahal\u0131 olarak gidiyor. Peki, o zaman i\u00e7eride fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla azalt\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan i\u00e7 talebin yerini 33 TL olan Euro kuru \u00fczerinden ihracat hemen doldurabilir. Bu durumda i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 nedeniyle daha fazla ihracat yap\u0131labilse de enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daha ilerilere \u2018baz etkisi\u2019 umutlar\u0131na kal\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

MAKRO \u00c7IKARLAR MI, M\u0130KRO \u00c7IKARLAR MI?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak ay\u0131nda sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re ihracat\u0131n pay\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla; imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 93.0 (18 milyar 623 milyon dolar), tar\u0131m, ormanc\u0131l\u0131k ve bal\u0131k\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 5.0 (993 milyon dolar), madencilik ve ta\u015f ocak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 1.5 (307 milyon dolar) oldu. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7eri ucuza ve vadeli satmaktansa d\u0131\u015far\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 ve pe\u015fin satar\u0131m daha iyi demi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durumda makro \u00e7\u0131karlar m\u0131 yoksa mikro \u00e7\u0131karlar m\u0131 bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli diye sormadan ge\u00e7emiyoruz. Sonu\u00e7ta bedeli kronik enflasyon ve fakirle\u015fme olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik kurlar \u00f6zellikle haziran ay\u0131nda, t\u0131pk\u0131 2023 Haziran ay\u0131ndaki gibi y\u00fczde 30 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckselmezse, matematiksel hesaplamalar yani \u2018baz etkisi\u2019 umuduyla temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fecektir. Peki, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ne fayda sa\u011fl\u0131yor? Hele bir \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc konumundayken\u2026<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ocak-2024-dis-ticaret-verileri","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1709499600cMErx7dfcwe0iQG.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":4157,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":49482,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":49356,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ocak 2024 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Ocak 2024 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2023 ocak ay\u0131nda dolar 18.70 TL civar\u0131ndayken 19 milyar 324 milyon dolarl\u0131k ihracat yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015fken, 2024 ocak ay\u0131nda dolar 30 TL civar\u0131ndayken ihracat rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.6 yani 704 milyon dolar art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Kur y\u00fczde 67 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f, yani TL y\u00fczde 67 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f, ancak ihracat sadece y\u00fczde 3.6 artabilmi\u015ftir. Buradan kurlar\u0131n ihracat\u0131 ne kadar destekleyebildi\u011fi de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fczde 65 civar\u0131 T\u00dcFE ya\u015fatan (piyasan\u0131n hissetti\u011fi enflasyon daha y\u00fcksek) kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihracat avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flayamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim ithalata\u2026 2023 ocak ay\u0131nda ithalat 33.601 milyon dolar iken 2024 ocak ay\u0131nda 26.201 milyon dolara d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Burada akl\u0131n\u0131za hemen pahal\u0131 kur nedeniyle ithalat yava\u015flayarak yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretime mi d\u00f6nd\u00fc sorusu akl\u0131n\u0131za gelebilir, ancak durum pek de \u00f6yle de\u011fil. Y\u00fczde 22 ithalat daralmas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki ana sebep, enerji ithalat\u0131yla alakal\u0131. Ocak 2023\u2019te \u2018mineral yak\u0131tlar, mineral ya\u011flar ve bunlar\u0131n dam\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131ndan elde edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnler, bit\u00fcmenli maddeler ve mineral mumlar\u2019 grubunda ithalat 8.794.088.000 dolar iken, 2024 ocak ay\u0131nda 6.534.699.000 dolara, y\u00fczde 25.7 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. \u0130\u015fte ithalattaki daralma da bu kalemlerden geliyor. Ham petrol ithalat\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 7.3 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130\u00c7 TALEB\u0130N DARALMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak ay\u0131nda Geni\u015f Ekonomik Gruplar\u0131n (BEC) s\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131na g\u00f6re, en \u00e7ok ihracat 9 milyar 946 milyon dolarla (y\u00fczde 1.5 art\u0131\u015f) \u2018hammadde (ara mallar\u0131)\u2019 grubunda yap\u0131l\u0131rken, bu grubu s\u0131ras\u0131yla 7 milyar 346 milyon dolarla (y\u00fczde 3.2 art\u0131\u015f) \u2018t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131\u2019 ve 2 milyar 623 milyon dolarla (y\u00fczde 13.8 art\u0131\u015f) \u2018yat\u0131r\u0131m (sermaye) mallar\u0131\u2019 gruplar\u0131 takip etti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Burada t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u00e7 talebi daraltarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek hedeflenirken, \u00fcretilen \u00fcr\u00fcnler g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere mevcut kurlar \u00fczerinden yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na pahal\u0131 olarak gidiyor. Peki, o zaman i\u00e7eride fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla azalt\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan i\u00e7 talebin yerini 33 TL olan Euro kuru \u00fczerinden ihracat hemen doldurabilir. Bu durumda i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 nedeniyle daha fazla ihracat yap\u0131labilse de enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daha ilerilere \u2018baz etkisi\u2019 umutlar\u0131na kal\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

MAKRO \u00c7IKARLAR MI, M\u0130KRO \u00c7IKARLAR MI?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak ay\u0131nda sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re ihracat\u0131n pay\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla; imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 93.0 (18 milyar 623 milyon dolar), tar\u0131m, ormanc\u0131l\u0131k ve bal\u0131k\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 5.0 (993 milyon dolar), madencilik ve ta\u015f ocak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 1.5 (307 milyon dolar) oldu. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7eri ucuza ve vadeli satmaktansa d\u0131\u015far\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 ve pe\u015fin satar\u0131m daha iyi demi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durumda makro \u00e7\u0131karlar m\u0131 yoksa mikro \u00e7\u0131karlar m\u0131 bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli diye sormadan ge\u00e7emiyoruz. Sonu\u00e7ta bedeli kronik enflasyon ve fakirle\u015fme olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik kurlar \u00f6zellikle haziran ay\u0131nda, t\u0131pk\u0131 2023 Haziran ay\u0131ndaki gibi y\u00fczde 30 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckselmezse, matematiksel hesaplamalar yani \u2018baz etkisi\u2019 umuduyla temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fecektir. Peki, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ne fayda sa\u011fl\u0131yor? Hele bir \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc konumundayken\u2026<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ocak-2024-dis-ticaret-verileri","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1709499600cMErx7dfcwe0iQG.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1709499600cMErx7dfcwe0iQG.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":4157,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}