{"status":true,"post":{"id":19539,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:37:20","created_at":"2018-12-09T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:37:20.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19539,"is_featured":0,"title":"Makro \u2018dengeleme\u2019 daha da h\u0131zlanacak","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en hafta, yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u201cy\u0131l sonuna kendimizi beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 iyile\u015fen enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f dengeye haz\u0131rlamam\u0131zda yarar var\u201d c\u00fcmlesiyle bitirmi\u015ftik. Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fcmet Sistemi\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dinamik yap\u0131 ve Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n koordinasyonunda, bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n birlikte hayata ge\u00e7irdikleri pek \u00e7ok yap\u0131sal tedbir, iki temel makro alanda, \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 ve \u2018d\u0131\u015f denge\u2019 boyutunda h\u0131zla sonu\u00e7 vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon verilerinde g\u00f6zlenen h\u0131zl\u0131 iyile\u015fme, TCMB\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 ekim ay\u0131 \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerinde g\u00f6zlenecek olas\u0131 bir \u2018cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131\u2019 ile daha da anlam kazanm\u0131\u015f olacak. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc dinamikleriyle, temel makro dengelerinde k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde, b\u00f6yle bir tabloyu h\u0131zla iyile\u015ftirecek mekanizmalar\u0131, devreleri olan bir ekonomi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>KUR VE FA\u0130ZLERDE GER\u0130LEME<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u2018a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6p\u00fcklenme\u2019nin kontrol\u00fc ve sonras\u0131nda n\u00f6tralizasyonu ad\u0131na kur ve faizlerde g\u00f6zlenen normalle\u015fme ve gerilemenin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon de\u011ferleri \u00fczerindeki etkisinin daha da h\u0131zlanabilece\u011fi bir periyoda giriyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki yak\u0131n vadede, bilhassa \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon de\u011ferlerindeki gerilemenin faiz hadlerinin normalizasyonunda daha da etkili olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda, sadece bir ayda, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u00fczde 24.34\u2019den, y\u00fczde 20.72\u2019ye gerilemesi ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin dahi alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2019\u2019a faiz hadlerinde en az 1-1.5 puan daha iyile\u015fmeyle girmemiz anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASINDA ACELE ETMEYEL\u0130M<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019un ilk 6 ay\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) para politikas\u0131ndaki bir sonraki rotaya y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli tart\u0131\u015fmalar yapaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem. K\u00fcresel anlamda para politikas\u0131 tercihlerinde \u2018gel-git\u2019lerin ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 bu periyodu, ilk etapta TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 d\u00fczeyini \u2018ayn\u0131\u2019 seviyede tutarak ge\u00e7irmemiz, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve faiz hadlerinin normalizasyonu ve enflasyonun daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 geli\u015fi ad\u0131na etkili sonu\u00e7lar verecektir. Bu nedenle, para politikas\u0131nda bilhassa aceleci davranmayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>K\u00dcRESEL T\u0130CARET SAVA\u015eI SERTLE\u015e\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n sosyal medya mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu f\u0131rt\u0131na dinmiyor. \u00d6nce Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Macron\u2019un akaryak\u0131t zamm\u0131nda geri ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru buldu\u011funu belirten Trump, ayn\u0131 mesajda, Frans\u0131zlar\u0131n ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin sebep oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel \u00e7evre kirlenmesinin bedelini akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u00f6demek mecburiyetinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyiverdi. Takip eden mesajda, ABD i\u00e7in temiz bir havay\u0131 ve temiz bir suyu talep etse de, ABD vergi m\u00fckellefleri ve i\u015f\u00e7ilerinin ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin kirlili\u011finin bedelini \u00f6demek zorunda olmad\u0131klar\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, asl\u0131nda ABD\u2019de 1 galon (4 litre) benzinin fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 3 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesini istemedi\u011fini belirtmi\u015f oldu. Bu nedenle OPEC\u2019in petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcmit etti\u011fini, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131 g\u00f6rmek istemedi\u011fini ifade etti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, son 45 y\u0131l\u0131n se\u00e7im analizleri, ABD halk\u0131n\u0131 rahats\u0131z eden her benzin fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Beyaz Saray\u2019daki ba\u015fkana ve partisine se\u00e7im kaybettirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, Suudi veliaht Bin Salman\u2019\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeye y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ve Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Putin\u2019in Salman\u2019a verdi\u011fi destekten de Trump\u2019\u0131n can\u0131 hayli s\u0131kk\u0131n. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son \u00fc\u00e7 olaydan ilki, Trump\u2019\u0131n G20 Zirvesi\u2019nde \u015ei ile \u2018Ticaret Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda 90 g\u00fcn ate\u015fkes ilan etmesine ra\u011fmen, 5 Kas\u0131m g\u00fcn\u00fc alt\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r sosyal medya mesaj\u0131 atarak, gerekirse \u2018arabay\u0131 devirmeye\u2019 kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtmesi. \u0130kinci olay, Huawei\u2019nin kurucusu Ren Zhengfei\u2019nin k\u0131z\u0131 ve \u015firketin CFO\u2019su olan Meng Wanzou\u2019nun Kanada\u2019da, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ambargosunun delindi\u011fi iddias\u0131yla tutukland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgisinin Trump\u2019\u0131n mesajlar\u0131yla e\u015f zamanl\u0131 s\u0131zmas\u0131. Son olay ise AB Komisyonu Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Dombrovskis\u2019in, Euro\u2019nun, k\u00fcresel enerji, hammadde, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, emtialar ve u\u00e7ak \u00fcretimi gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131. \u2018Ticaret Sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ate\u015fi y\u00fckseliyor, sertle\u015fiyor. T\u00fcrkiye olarak dikkatle takip edelim.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"makro-dengeleme-daha-da-hizlanacak","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Makro \u2018dengeleme\u2019 daha da h\u0131zlanacak","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":110,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19638,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19539,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Makro \u2018dengeleme\u2019 daha da h\u0131zlanacak","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en hafta, yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u201cy\u0131l sonuna kendimizi beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 iyile\u015fen enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f dengeye haz\u0131rlamam\u0131zda yarar var\u201d c\u00fcmlesiyle bitirmi\u015ftik. Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fcmet Sistemi\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dinamik yap\u0131 ve Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n koordinasyonunda, bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n birlikte hayata ge\u00e7irdikleri pek \u00e7ok yap\u0131sal tedbir, iki temel makro alanda, \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 ve \u2018d\u0131\u015f denge\u2019 boyutunda h\u0131zla sonu\u00e7 vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon verilerinde g\u00f6zlenen h\u0131zl\u0131 iyile\u015fme, TCMB\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 ekim ay\u0131 \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerinde g\u00f6zlenecek olas\u0131 bir \u2018cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131\u2019 ile daha da anlam kazanm\u0131\u015f olacak. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc dinamikleriyle, temel makro dengelerinde k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde, b\u00f6yle bir tabloyu h\u0131zla iyile\u015ftirecek mekanizmalar\u0131, devreleri olan bir ekonomi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>KUR VE FA\u0130ZLERDE GER\u0130LEME<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u2018a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6p\u00fcklenme\u2019nin kontrol\u00fc ve sonras\u0131nda n\u00f6tralizasyonu ad\u0131na kur ve faizlerde g\u00f6zlenen normalle\u015fme ve gerilemenin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon de\u011ferleri \u00fczerindeki etkisinin daha da h\u0131zlanabilece\u011fi bir periyoda giriyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki yak\u0131n vadede, bilhassa \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon de\u011ferlerindeki gerilemenin faiz hadlerinin normalizasyonunda daha da etkili olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda, sadece bir ayda, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u00fczde 24.34\u2019den, y\u00fczde 20.72\u2019ye gerilemesi ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin dahi alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2019\u2019a faiz hadlerinde en az 1-1.5 puan daha iyile\u015fmeyle girmemiz anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASINDA ACELE ETMEYEL\u0130M<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019un ilk 6 ay\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) para politikas\u0131ndaki bir sonraki rotaya y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli tart\u0131\u015fmalar yapaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem. K\u00fcresel anlamda para politikas\u0131 tercihlerinde \u2018gel-git\u2019lerin ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 bu periyodu, ilk etapta TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 d\u00fczeyini \u2018ayn\u0131\u2019 seviyede tutarak ge\u00e7irmemiz, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve faiz hadlerinin normalizasyonu ve enflasyonun daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 geli\u015fi ad\u0131na etkili sonu\u00e7lar verecektir. Bu nedenle, para politikas\u0131nda bilhassa aceleci davranmayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>K\u00dcRESEL T\u0130CARET SAVA\u015eI SERTLE\u015e\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n sosyal medya mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu f\u0131rt\u0131na dinmiyor. \u00d6nce Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Macron\u2019un akaryak\u0131t zamm\u0131nda geri ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru buldu\u011funu belirten Trump, ayn\u0131 mesajda, Frans\u0131zlar\u0131n ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin sebep oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel \u00e7evre kirlenmesinin bedelini akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u00f6demek mecburiyetinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyiverdi. Takip eden mesajda, ABD i\u00e7in temiz bir havay\u0131 ve temiz bir suyu talep etse de, ABD vergi m\u00fckellefleri ve i\u015f\u00e7ilerinin ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin kirlili\u011finin bedelini \u00f6demek zorunda olmad\u0131klar\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, asl\u0131nda ABD\u2019de 1 galon (4 litre) benzinin fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 3 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesini istemedi\u011fini belirtmi\u015f oldu. Bu nedenle OPEC\u2019in petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcmit etti\u011fini, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131 g\u00f6rmek istemedi\u011fini ifade etti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, son 45 y\u0131l\u0131n se\u00e7im analizleri, ABD halk\u0131n\u0131 rahats\u0131z eden her benzin fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Beyaz Saray\u2019daki ba\u015fkana ve partisine se\u00e7im kaybettirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, Suudi veliaht Bin Salman\u2019\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeye y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ve Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Putin\u2019in Salman\u2019a verdi\u011fi destekten de Trump\u2019\u0131n can\u0131 hayli s\u0131kk\u0131n. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son \u00fc\u00e7 olaydan ilki, Trump\u2019\u0131n G20 Zirvesi\u2019nde \u015ei ile \u2018Ticaret Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda 90 g\u00fcn ate\u015fkes ilan etmesine ra\u011fmen, 5 Kas\u0131m g\u00fcn\u00fc alt\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r sosyal medya mesaj\u0131 atarak, gerekirse \u2018arabay\u0131 devirmeye\u2019 kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtmesi. \u0130kinci olay, Huawei\u2019nin kurucusu Ren Zhengfei\u2019nin k\u0131z\u0131 ve \u015firketin CFO\u2019su olan Meng Wanzou\u2019nun Kanada\u2019da, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ambargosunun delindi\u011fi iddias\u0131yla tutukland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgisinin Trump\u2019\u0131n mesajlar\u0131yla e\u015f zamanl\u0131 s\u0131zmas\u0131. Son olay ise AB Komisyonu Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Dombrovskis\u2019in, Euro\u2019nun, k\u00fcresel enerji, hammadde, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, emtialar ve u\u00e7ak \u00fcretimi gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131. \u2018Ticaret Sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ate\u015fi y\u00fckseliyor, sertle\u015fiyor. T\u00fcrkiye olarak dikkatle takip edelim.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"makro-dengeleme-daha-da-hizlanacak","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Makro \u2018dengeleme\u2019 daha da h\u0131zlanacak","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":110,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}