{"status":true,"post":{"id":17534,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:20:30","created_at":"2017-11-27T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:20:30.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17534,"is_featured":0,"title":"Kuru \u2018derinlik\u2019 \u00e7\u00f6zecek","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ekonomik sava\u015f\u0131n psikolojik harp boyutu, her zamanki d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131. Olduk\u00e7a s\u0131\u011f bir piyasa ortam\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselterek, hep bir a\u011f\u0131zdan TCMB\u2019yi faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na zorluyorlar. Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131k\u00e7a, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n asla sakinle\u015fmeyece\u011fini ifade edip, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7in rahats\u0131z edici dolar kuru \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri payla\u015f\u0131p, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcn ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz talebine zorluyorlar. \u0130\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n bu iddialara prim vererek, neredeyse alt\u0131 ay sonraki d\u00f6viz \u00f6demeleri i\u00e7in bile bug\u00fcnden d\u00f6viz toplamaya kalkmas\u0131 ise kurlar\u0131 b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu noktada, \u00f6ncelikle TCMB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 iki a\u00e7\u0131dan do\u011fru bir strateji de\u011fil. Birincisi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fu anda esas s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 maliyet enflasyonu. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonominin kaynak, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kredi maliyetlerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131ndan maliyet enflasyonunu da art\u0131racak. \u0130kincisi, T\u00fcrkiye ile G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz makas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lacak ki, bu makas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00fcresel alg\u0131s\u0131 bozuluyor diye yine aleyhimize kullanacaklar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">TCMB\u2019nin ve ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ilk yapaca\u011f\u0131 i\u015f, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na derinlik kazand\u0131racak ve vatanda\u015f\u0131n ileri tarihte almas\u0131 gereken d\u00f6vizi bug\u00fcnden belirli bir kur seviyede alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 temin edecek vadeli kur i\u015flemlerine \u00f6ncelik vermesidir. Nitekim, son iki haftad\u0131r TCMB, att\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm ad\u0131mlarla d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na bir derinlik kazand\u0131rmaya, b\u00f6ylece d\u00f6vize g\u00f6sterilen spek\u00fclatif talebi azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. TL uzla\u015fmal\u0131 vadeli d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanma limitlerini s\u0131f\u0131rlayarak, TCMB hem elindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervini kullanmadan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kur riskini hedge edebilece\u011fi imkan\u0131 sunuyor hem de TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rarak d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek dalgalanmay\u0131, spek\u00fclatif ata\u011f\u0131n k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Kimi k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rlerin \u2018TCMB faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e bu kur hareketi durmaz\u2019 s\u00f6z\u00fcne de kanmayal\u0131m. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde, y\u00fczlerce defa bu t\u00fcr kur hareketlerinin k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, basiretli ve sakin davran\u0131larak s\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019deki Reza Zarrab davas\u0131ndan son NATO skandal\u0131na, ABD medyas\u0131n\u0131n iddias\u0131 ile Washington\u2019un Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyinde yeni bir y\u00f6netim kurdurma plan\u0131na kadar \u00e7ok hassas dengelerin s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 y\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek, Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fdan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 Karahan ve Ertem, T\u00fcrk Hazinesi\u2019nin \u015fimdiden 2018\u2019e haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n mali yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu, kaynak bulmakta hi\u00e7 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve TCMB\u2019nin ara\u00e7 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda ne kadar kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu net olarak ifade ediyorlar. TCMB\u2019nin gerekli g\u00f6rmesi halinde, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 piyasa fonlama miktar\u0131n\u0131 ve fonlama maliyetini ince ayarlarla y\u00f6neterek, TL\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi her zaman m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Piyasalar bu olumlu, alt\u0131 doldurulmu\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, dolar-TL kuru 3.90 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na do\u011fru sarkarken, kimi piyasa simsarlar\u0131n\u0131n ve kreditokrasinin tam da isteyece\u011fi bir formatta, rahats\u0131z edici bir zamanlama ile uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi medyas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin AB\u2019nin vergi cenneti kara listesine al\u0131nabilece\u011fi haberini basmas\u0131na ne diyece\u011fiz. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu haber ani bir merkez bankas\u0131, hazine a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r. Ekonomi alan\u0131nda al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli bir karar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r. Peki, acelesi olmayan b\u00f6yle bir haberi, s\u00f6z konusu medya kurulu\u015fu piyasalar kapand\u0131ktan sonra verebilir miydi? Evet. Peki, Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 \u015eim\u015fek veya Bakan A\u011fbal\u2019dan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f istenmi\u015f mi? Hay\u0131r. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Yorum sizin.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ZAMAN AYARLI KARA HABER OPERASYONU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Daha 48 saat \u00f6nce, \u2018bu kur durmayacak, 4 TL\u2019ye haz\u0131r olun\u2019 yorumlar\u0131 ortalarda gezinirken, ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ekonomistler, finans profesyonelleri basiretli davran\u0131p, ayaklar\u0131 yere basan yorumlar yap\u0131nca, k\u00fcresel odaklar\u0131n \u0131srarla pompalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz alg\u0131 sorgulan\u0131nca, psikoloji toparlan\u0131nca, piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6rece sakinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. So\u00e7i Zirvesi, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011finde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu, K\u00f6rfez, daha geni\u015f manada Avrasya\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn ve gelece\u011finin \u015fekillenmesinde ne kadar etkili bir oyun kurucu \u00fclke oldu\u011funu bir kez daha ortaya koydu. \u015eimdi, t\u00fcm piyasa profesyonelleri ve ekonomi d\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u015fu soruyu kendisine sorsun: K\u00fcresel ekonomi-politik sistem \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 ve \u00e7ok kutuplu bir yepyeni d\u00fczene ad\u0131m ad\u0131m d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu yeni k\u00fcresel yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc oyuncular\u0131 ile e\u015fit ko\u015fullarda masaya oturan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f, \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f politika pozisyonunda m\u0131 bir hata var; yoksa bu yeni k\u00fcresel d\u00fczende \u00f6zg\u00fcl a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmekte olan Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu yeni pozisyonuna duydu\u011fu k\u0131zg\u0131nl\u0131k, hatta nefrette mi bir sorun var?<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuru-derinlik-cozecek","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Kuru \u2018derinlik\u2019 \u00e7\u00f6zecek","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":78,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":17633,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17534,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Kuru \u2018derinlik\u2019 \u00e7\u00f6zecek","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ekonomik sava\u015f\u0131n psikolojik harp boyutu, her zamanki d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131. Olduk\u00e7a s\u0131\u011f bir piyasa ortam\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselterek, hep bir a\u011f\u0131zdan TCMB\u2019yi faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na zorluyorlar. Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131k\u00e7a, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n asla sakinle\u015fmeyece\u011fini ifade edip, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7in rahats\u0131z edici dolar kuru \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri payla\u015f\u0131p, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcn ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz talebine zorluyorlar. \u0130\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n bu iddialara prim vererek, neredeyse alt\u0131 ay sonraki d\u00f6viz \u00f6demeleri i\u00e7in bile bug\u00fcnden d\u00f6viz toplamaya kalkmas\u0131 ise kurlar\u0131 b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu noktada, \u00f6ncelikle TCMB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 iki a\u00e7\u0131dan do\u011fru bir strateji de\u011fil. Birincisi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fu anda esas s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 maliyet enflasyonu. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonominin kaynak, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kredi maliyetlerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131ndan maliyet enflasyonunu da art\u0131racak. \u0130kincisi, T\u00fcrkiye ile G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz makas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lacak ki, bu makas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00fcresel alg\u0131s\u0131 bozuluyor diye yine aleyhimize kullanacaklar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">TCMB\u2019nin ve ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ilk yapaca\u011f\u0131 i\u015f, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na derinlik kazand\u0131racak ve vatanda\u015f\u0131n ileri tarihte almas\u0131 gereken d\u00f6vizi bug\u00fcnden belirli bir kur seviyede alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 temin edecek vadeli kur i\u015flemlerine \u00f6ncelik vermesidir. Nitekim, son iki haftad\u0131r TCMB, att\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm ad\u0131mlarla d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na bir derinlik kazand\u0131rmaya, b\u00f6ylece d\u00f6vize g\u00f6sterilen spek\u00fclatif talebi azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. TL uzla\u015fmal\u0131 vadeli d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanma limitlerini s\u0131f\u0131rlayarak, TCMB hem elindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervini kullanmadan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kur riskini hedge edebilece\u011fi imkan\u0131 sunuyor hem de TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rarak d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek dalgalanmay\u0131, spek\u00fclatif ata\u011f\u0131n k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Kimi k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rlerin \u2018TCMB faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e bu kur hareketi durmaz\u2019 s\u00f6z\u00fcne de kanmayal\u0131m. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde, y\u00fczlerce defa bu t\u00fcr kur hareketlerinin k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, basiretli ve sakin davran\u0131larak s\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019deki Reza Zarrab davas\u0131ndan son NATO skandal\u0131na, ABD medyas\u0131n\u0131n iddias\u0131 ile Washington\u2019un Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyinde yeni bir y\u00f6netim kurdurma plan\u0131na kadar \u00e7ok hassas dengelerin s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 y\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek, Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fdan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 Karahan ve Ertem, T\u00fcrk Hazinesi\u2019nin \u015fimdiden 2018\u2019e haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n mali yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu, kaynak bulmakta hi\u00e7 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve TCMB\u2019nin ara\u00e7 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda ne kadar kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu net olarak ifade ediyorlar. TCMB\u2019nin gerekli g\u00f6rmesi halinde, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 piyasa fonlama miktar\u0131n\u0131 ve fonlama maliyetini ince ayarlarla y\u00f6neterek, TL\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi her zaman m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Piyasalar bu olumlu, alt\u0131 doldurulmu\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, dolar-TL kuru 3.90 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na do\u011fru sarkarken, kimi piyasa simsarlar\u0131n\u0131n ve kreditokrasinin tam da isteyece\u011fi bir formatta, rahats\u0131z edici bir zamanlama ile uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi medyas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin AB\u2019nin vergi cenneti kara listesine al\u0131nabilece\u011fi haberini basmas\u0131na ne diyece\u011fiz. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu haber ani bir merkez bankas\u0131, hazine a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r. Ekonomi alan\u0131nda al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli bir karar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r. Peki, acelesi olmayan b\u00f6yle bir haberi, s\u00f6z konusu medya kurulu\u015fu piyasalar kapand\u0131ktan sonra verebilir miydi? Evet. Peki, Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 \u015eim\u015fek veya Bakan A\u011fbal\u2019dan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f istenmi\u015f mi? Hay\u0131r. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Yorum sizin.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ZAMAN AYARLI KARA HABER OPERASYONU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Daha 48 saat \u00f6nce, \u2018bu kur durmayacak, 4 TL\u2019ye haz\u0131r olun\u2019 yorumlar\u0131 ortalarda gezinirken, ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ekonomistler, finans profesyonelleri basiretli davran\u0131p, ayaklar\u0131 yere basan yorumlar yap\u0131nca, k\u00fcresel odaklar\u0131n \u0131srarla pompalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz alg\u0131 sorgulan\u0131nca, psikoloji toparlan\u0131nca, piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6rece sakinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. So\u00e7i Zirvesi, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011finde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu, K\u00f6rfez, daha geni\u015f manada Avrasya\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn ve gelece\u011finin \u015fekillenmesinde ne kadar etkili bir oyun kurucu \u00fclke oldu\u011funu bir kez daha ortaya koydu. \u015eimdi, t\u00fcm piyasa profesyonelleri ve ekonomi d\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u015fu soruyu kendisine sorsun: K\u00fcresel ekonomi-politik sistem \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 ve \u00e7ok kutuplu bir yepyeni d\u00fczene ad\u0131m ad\u0131m d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu yeni k\u00fcresel yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc oyuncular\u0131 ile e\u015fit ko\u015fullarda masaya oturan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f, \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f politika pozisyonunda m\u0131 bir hata var; yoksa bu yeni k\u00fcresel d\u00fczende \u00f6zg\u00fcl a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmekte olan Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu yeni pozisyonuna duydu\u011fu k\u0131zg\u0131nl\u0131k, hatta nefrette mi bir sorun var?<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuru-derinlik-cozecek","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Kuru \u2018derinlik\u2019 \u00e7\u00f6zecek","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":78,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}