{"status":true,"post":{"id":53037,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-06-24 08:11:00","created_at":"2024-06-24T05:11:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-06-24T05:11:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":53037,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel ticaretin serencam\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 ticaretin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemin en dikkat \u00e7ekici iktisadi geli\u015fmelerinden biri oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1950\u2019lerin sonunda sadece bir olan b\u00f6lgesel ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde 369\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde toplam k\u00fcresel ihracat hacminin reel de\u011feri, 30 kattan fazla art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Serbest ticaretin teoride t\u00fcm vaat ettiklerini pratikte sahaya yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyemeyiz. \u0130hracat her \u00fclkeye, her \u015firkete ve her bireye ayn\u0131 oranlarda fayda sa\u011flamad\u0131. Ama yine de ihracat\u0131n \u00fcretkenlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin kalk\u0131nma yolunda daha fazla ihracata ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 var. Bunun i\u00e7in de daha adil bir uluslararas\u0131 ticaret sistemine. Ancak, k\u00fcresel ticaret son y\u0131llarda ivme kaybediyor. 2000-2009 aras\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 5.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen k\u00fcresel ticaret, 2010-2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e raz\u0131 oldu. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel ticareti iyice sekteye u\u011fratt\u0131. K\u00fcresel ticaret 2023\u2019te sadece y\u00fczde 0.1 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyebildi. Bu, son 50 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemdeki en k\u00f6t\u00fc performanslardan biri olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

EKONOM\u0130K M\u0130LL\u0130YET\u00c7\u0130L\u0130K E\u011e\u0130L\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel ticaretin y\u00fczde 2.5 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla bariz bir iyile\u015fme olmakla birlikte, yine de uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerden d\u00fcnya geneline yay\u0131lan ekonomik milliyet\u00e7ilik e\u011filimi, k\u00fcresel ticareti yava\u015flatan ana fakt\u00f6r konumunda. Jeopolitik gerginlikler ve korumac\u0131 politikalar k\u00fcresel ticaretin uzun vadeli trendini olumsuz etkiliyor. K\u0131sa ve orta vadede ise faiz oranlar\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel ticaret \u00fczerinde belirleyici oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomik milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fin yak\u0131n gelecekte s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesini beklemek \u00e7ok ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fil. \u0130yi haber, k\u00fcresel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f da olsa gerilemeye ba\u015flamas\u0131. Ekonomik aktiviteyi canland\u0131racak bu geli\u015fmenin uluslararas\u0131 ticarete destek olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dcN GAYRET\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye olarak biz de ihracat rakamlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 bu toparlanman\u0131n etkilerini hissetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na dair \u00f6nc\u00fc sinyaller veren \u0130hracat \u0130klim Endeksi, son sekiz ayd\u0131r y\u00fckseliyor. 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk be\u015f ay\u0131nda toplam ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 4.5 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Net ihracat\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f \u00e7eyreklik aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye hen\u00fcz faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamad\u0131. Y\u00fcksek faizler, \u015firketleri zorluyor. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 da son 4-5 y\u0131ldaki kadar ihracat\u0131 destekleyici bir konumda de\u011fil. T\u00fcm bunlara ra\u011fmen ihracat\u0131n art\u0131yor olmas\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn gayretini g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor. T\u00fcrkiye orta gelir tuza\u011f\u0131ndan kurtulacaksa, bu b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda katma de\u011ferli ihracat\u0131 art\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck giri\u015fimlerimiz sayesinde olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-ticaretin-serencami","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1719176400HjEmP1IDp00joX0.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":6206,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":53163,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":53037,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel ticaretin serencam\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 ticaretin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemin en dikkat \u00e7ekici iktisadi geli\u015fmelerinden biri oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1950\u2019lerin sonunda sadece bir olan b\u00f6lgesel ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde 369\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde toplam k\u00fcresel ihracat hacminin reel de\u011feri, 30 kattan fazla art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Serbest ticaretin teoride t\u00fcm vaat ettiklerini pratikte sahaya yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyemeyiz. \u0130hracat her \u00fclkeye, her \u015firkete ve her bireye ayn\u0131 oranlarda fayda sa\u011flamad\u0131. Ama yine de ihracat\u0131n \u00fcretkenlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin kalk\u0131nma yolunda daha fazla ihracata ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 var. Bunun i\u00e7in de daha adil bir uluslararas\u0131 ticaret sistemine. Ancak, k\u00fcresel ticaret son y\u0131llarda ivme kaybediyor. 2000-2009 aras\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 5.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen k\u00fcresel ticaret, 2010-2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e raz\u0131 oldu. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel ticareti iyice sekteye u\u011fratt\u0131. K\u00fcresel ticaret 2023\u2019te sadece y\u00fczde 0.1 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyebildi. Bu, son 50 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemdeki en k\u00f6t\u00fc performanslardan biri olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

EKONOM\u0130K M\u0130LL\u0130YET\u00c7\u0130L\u0130K E\u011e\u0130L\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel ticaretin y\u00fczde 2.5 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla bariz bir iyile\u015fme olmakla birlikte, yine de uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerden d\u00fcnya geneline yay\u0131lan ekonomik milliyet\u00e7ilik e\u011filimi, k\u00fcresel ticareti yava\u015flatan ana fakt\u00f6r konumunda. Jeopolitik gerginlikler ve korumac\u0131 politikalar k\u00fcresel ticaretin uzun vadeli trendini olumsuz etkiliyor. K\u0131sa ve orta vadede ise faiz oranlar\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel ticaret \u00fczerinde belirleyici oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomik milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fin yak\u0131n gelecekte s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesini beklemek \u00e7ok ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fil. \u0130yi haber, k\u00fcresel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f da olsa gerilemeye ba\u015flamas\u0131. Ekonomik aktiviteyi canland\u0131racak bu geli\u015fmenin uluslararas\u0131 ticarete destek olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dcN GAYRET\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye olarak biz de ihracat rakamlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 bu toparlanman\u0131n etkilerini hissetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na dair \u00f6nc\u00fc sinyaller veren \u0130hracat \u0130klim Endeksi, son sekiz ayd\u0131r y\u00fckseliyor. 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk be\u015f ay\u0131nda toplam ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 4.5 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Net ihracat\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f \u00e7eyreklik aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye hen\u00fcz faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamad\u0131. Y\u00fcksek faizler, \u015firketleri zorluyor. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 da son 4-5 y\u0131ldaki kadar ihracat\u0131 destekleyici bir konumda de\u011fil. T\u00fcm bunlara ra\u011fmen ihracat\u0131n art\u0131yor olmas\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn gayretini g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor. T\u00fcrkiye orta gelir tuza\u011f\u0131ndan kurtulacaksa, bu b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda katma de\u011ferli ihracat\u0131 art\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck giri\u015fimlerimiz sayesinde olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-ticaretin-serencami","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1719176400HjEmP1IDp00joX0.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1719176400HjEmP1IDp00joX0.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":6206,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}