{"status":true,"post":{"id":57602,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-11-18 07:38:00","created_at":"2024-11-18T04:38:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-11-18T04:38:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":57602,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 zorlayacak","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p id=\"isPasted\" style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>T\u00fcrkiye, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131ndan bu yana dezenflasyon program\u0131 uyguluyor. Program s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleriyle i\u00e7 talebi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u0130hracat ve d\u0131\u015f talep, program ve reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f aya\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak son geli\u015fmelerle k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 zorlamaya devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. TRUMP \u0130LE YEN\u0130 K\u00dcRESEL D\u00d6NEM<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerini Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Parti aday\u0131 Donald Trump kazand\u0131. Trump, 20 Ocak 2025 tarihinde g\u00f6reve ba\u015flayacak. Trump, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fcresel siyaseti ve ekonomiyi yeniden \u015fekillendirecek vaatlerde bulundu. Trump, yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fck\/g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Amerika idealine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f politikada ad\u0131mlar atacak. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bitirmeyi hedefliyor. \u00c7in ile hegemonya m\u00fccadelesi s\u00fcrecek. AB ile de ili\u015fkiler yenilenecek. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine inanmayan Trump, ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme so\u011fuk. Ekonomi alan\u0131nda da ABD\u2019nin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zeten yeni bir ticaret politikas\u0131 uygulamay\u0131 vaat ediyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. TRUMP\u2019IN EKONOM\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KASI VE ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Trump, \u00f6ncelikle ABD\u2019nin ithalat\u0131na yeni ilave vergiler getirmeyi hedefliyor. \u00c7in\u2019den ithalata y\u00fczde 60, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden ithalata ise y\u00fczde 10-20 aras\u0131nda vergi konulacak. Uygulanacak bu vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, muhtemelen k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yeni bir korumac\u0131l\u0131k dalgas\u0131na ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak. Trump, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 istiyor. Trump, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin \u00fclkeye giri\u015fine de kar\u015f\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek. Uygulanacak vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ABD ve d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyonun artmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak. Trump, vergilerde de y\u00fcksek indirimler hedefliyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomi politikalar\u0131, ilk a\u015famada ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. TRUMP \u0130LE EN \u00c7OK \u00c7\u0130N, ALMANYA VE MEKS\u0130KA ZORLANACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>ABD, en y\u00fcksek ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in, Meksika, Vietnam ve Almanya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 veriyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek ithalat vergileri, \u00f6ncelikle bu \u00fclkelerden yap\u0131lan ithalat\u0131 etkileyecek. \u00d6zellikle \u00c7in ve Almanya sanayi olumsuz etkilenecek. Trump, Meksika ve Kanada i\u00e7in de vergileri art\u0131racak. Vietnam\u2019a uygulamas\u0131 belirsiz. Ayr\u0131ca G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya gibi di\u011fer Asya \u00fclkeleri de yeni olas\u0131 vergilerden olumsuz etki g\u00f6recek. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve dolar faizlerinin y\u00fcksek kalacak olmas\u0131yla olumsuz etkilenmesi bekleniyor. Etkilerin \u015fiddeti ithalat vergilerinin seviyesine ve kapsam\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu rekabet ko\u015fullar\u0131 i\u00e7inde avantajlar yakalamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. PAR\u0130TE VE EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARINA TRUMP DARBES\u0130\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 pariteleri ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomi vaatlerini uygulamas\u0131 halinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ilk a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi bekleniyor. K\u0131sa vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Euro ve Yuan ile geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri de\u011fer kaybedecek. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 da ilk a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar nedeniyle zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Ancak ithalata vergiler getirilmesi halinde \u00f6zellikle metal fiyatlar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar olabilecek. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar, alt\u0131n\u0131n da h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kesti. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ise zay\u0131f talep beklentisiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Trump\u2019\u0131n yeni d\u00f6neminde Ukrayna-Rusya sava\u015f\u0131 ile Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ak\u0131beti de emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda belirleyici olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>5. TCMB ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>TCMB; 2024, 2025 ve 2026 sonu enflasyon hedeflerini y\u00fckseltti. B\u00f6ylece eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan Orta Vadeli Program\u2019\u0131n enflasyon hedefleri sadece 2 ay sonra yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. OVP itibar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir geli\u015fme oldu. TCMB, 2024 sonu enflasyon hedefini y\u00fczde 44\u2019e, 2025 sonu enflasyon hedefini y\u00fczde 21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131. Enflasyon beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015flar sonras\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha uzun olmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artt\u0131. Enflasyon beklentileri ve enflasyondaki kat\u0131l\u0131k, TCMB\u2019nin hedefleri y\u00fckseltmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. TCMB, s\u00fcreci k\u0131saltmak i\u00e7in yeni ad\u0131mlar atabilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>6. REEL SEKT\u00d6R \u0130\u00c7\u0130N KO\u015eULLAR ZORLA\u015eIYOR<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn iktisadi faaliyetlerinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 s\u00fcrmesi gerekiyor. Ancak i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f talep ko\u015fullar\u0131 ile finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 bunu giderek daha zor hale getiriyor. \u0130ktisadi faaliyetler ve reel sekt\u00f6r, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci politikalar\u0131ndan olumsuz etkilenmeye devam edecek. Sermaye yeterlili\u011fi, nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve alacaklar\u0131n y\u00f6netimi \u00f6nemli olacak. Bug\u00fcne kadar mali yap\u0131s\u0131 bozuk olan ve y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluklara sahip firmalar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131ndan etkilendi. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde mali yap\u0131lar\u0131 sa\u011flam olan firmalar da k\u00e2rs\u0131zl\u0131k ve daralan sat\u0131\u015flar nedeniyle olumsuz etkilenmeye ba\u015flayacak. \u00d6zellikle \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 seviyesi reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn tamam m\u0131\/devam m\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 alaca\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc rahatlatacak ad\u0131mlara ihtiya\u00e7 art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-kosullar-dezenflasyon-programini-zorlayacak","tags":null,"meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 zorlayacak","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1731877200HzFvtFsBOwSXEkS.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":57728,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":57602,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 zorlayacak","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p id=\"isPasted\" style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>T\u00fcrkiye, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131ndan bu yana dezenflasyon program\u0131 uyguluyor. Program s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleriyle i\u00e7 talebi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u0130hracat ve d\u0131\u015f talep, program ve reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f aya\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak son geli\u015fmelerle k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 zorlamaya devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. TRUMP \u0130LE YEN\u0130 K\u00dcRESEL D\u00d6NEM<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerini Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Parti aday\u0131 Donald Trump kazand\u0131. Trump, 20 Ocak 2025 tarihinde g\u00f6reve ba\u015flayacak. Trump, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fcresel siyaseti ve ekonomiyi yeniden \u015fekillendirecek vaatlerde bulundu. Trump, yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fck\/g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Amerika idealine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f politikada ad\u0131mlar atacak. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bitirmeyi hedefliyor. \u00c7in ile hegemonya m\u00fccadelesi s\u00fcrecek. AB ile de ili\u015fkiler yenilenecek. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine inanmayan Trump, ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme so\u011fuk. Ekonomi alan\u0131nda da ABD\u2019nin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zeten yeni bir ticaret politikas\u0131 uygulamay\u0131 vaat ediyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. TRUMP\u2019IN EKONOM\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KASI VE ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Trump, \u00f6ncelikle ABD\u2019nin ithalat\u0131na yeni ilave vergiler getirmeyi hedefliyor. \u00c7in\u2019den ithalata y\u00fczde 60, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden ithalata ise y\u00fczde 10-20 aras\u0131nda vergi konulacak. Uygulanacak bu vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, muhtemelen k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yeni bir korumac\u0131l\u0131k dalgas\u0131na ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak. Trump, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 istiyor. Trump, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin \u00fclkeye giri\u015fine de kar\u015f\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek. Uygulanacak vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ABD ve d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyonun artmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak. Trump, vergilerde de y\u00fcksek indirimler hedefliyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomi politikalar\u0131, ilk a\u015famada ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. TRUMP \u0130LE EN \u00c7OK \u00c7\u0130N, ALMANYA VE MEKS\u0130KA ZORLANACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>ABD, en y\u00fcksek ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in, Meksika, Vietnam ve Almanya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 veriyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek ithalat vergileri, \u00f6ncelikle bu \u00fclkelerden yap\u0131lan ithalat\u0131 etkileyecek. \u00d6zellikle \u00c7in ve Almanya sanayi olumsuz etkilenecek. Trump, Meksika ve Kanada i\u00e7in de vergileri art\u0131racak. Vietnam\u2019a uygulamas\u0131 belirsiz. Ayr\u0131ca G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya gibi di\u011fer Asya \u00fclkeleri de yeni olas\u0131 vergilerden olumsuz etki g\u00f6recek. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve dolar faizlerinin y\u00fcksek kalacak olmas\u0131yla olumsuz etkilenmesi bekleniyor. Etkilerin \u015fiddeti ithalat vergilerinin seviyesine ve kapsam\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu rekabet ko\u015fullar\u0131 i\u00e7inde avantajlar yakalamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. PAR\u0130TE VE EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARINA TRUMP DARBES\u0130\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 pariteleri ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomi vaatlerini uygulamas\u0131 halinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ilk a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi bekleniyor. K\u0131sa vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Euro ve Yuan ile geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri de\u011fer kaybedecek. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 da ilk a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar nedeniyle zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Ancak ithalata vergiler getirilmesi halinde \u00f6zellikle metal fiyatlar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar olabilecek. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar, alt\u0131n\u0131n da h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kesti. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ise zay\u0131f talep beklentisiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Trump\u2019\u0131n yeni d\u00f6neminde Ukrayna-Rusya sava\u015f\u0131 ile Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ak\u0131beti de emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda belirleyici olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>5. TCMB ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>TCMB; 2024, 2025 ve 2026 sonu enflasyon hedeflerini y\u00fckseltti. B\u00f6ylece eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan Orta Vadeli Program\u2019\u0131n enflasyon hedefleri sadece 2 ay sonra yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. OVP itibar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir geli\u015fme oldu. TCMB, 2024 sonu enflasyon hedefini y\u00fczde 44\u2019e, 2025 sonu enflasyon hedefini y\u00fczde 21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131. Enflasyon beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015flar sonras\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha uzun olmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artt\u0131. Enflasyon beklentileri ve enflasyondaki kat\u0131l\u0131k, TCMB\u2019nin hedefleri y\u00fckseltmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. TCMB, s\u00fcreci k\u0131saltmak i\u00e7in yeni ad\u0131mlar atabilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>6. REEL SEKT\u00d6R \u0130\u00c7\u0130N KO\u015eULLAR ZORLA\u015eIYOR<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn iktisadi faaliyetlerinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 s\u00fcrmesi gerekiyor. Ancak i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f talep ko\u015fullar\u0131 ile finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 bunu giderek daha zor hale getiriyor. \u0130ktisadi faaliyetler ve reel sekt\u00f6r, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci politikalar\u0131ndan olumsuz etkilenmeye devam edecek. Sermaye yeterlili\u011fi, nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve alacaklar\u0131n y\u00f6netimi \u00f6nemli olacak. Bug\u00fcne kadar mali yap\u0131s\u0131 bozuk olan ve y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluklara sahip firmalar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131ndan etkilendi. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde mali yap\u0131lar\u0131 sa\u011flam olan firmalar da k\u00e2rs\u0131zl\u0131k ve daralan sat\u0131\u015flar nedeniyle olumsuz etkilenmeye ba\u015flayacak. \u00d6zellikle \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 seviyesi reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn tamam m\u0131\/devam m\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 alaca\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc rahatlatacak ad\u0131mlara ihtiya\u00e7 art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-kosullar-dezenflasyon-programini-zorlayacak","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1731877200HzFvtFsBOwSXEkS.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1731877200HzFvtFsBOwSXEkS.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 zorlayacak","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2024-12-18 07:16:51","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}