{"status":true,"post":{"id":74079,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-09-12 08:45:00","created_at":"2025-09-12T05:45:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-09-12T05:45:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-09-12 08:45:00","source_id":null,"post_id":74079,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel faiz indirim r\u00fczgar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"K\u00fcresel faiz indirim r\u00fczgar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faiz indirimi ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7iyoruz. Bir tarafta ABD istihdam piyasas\u0131 ile ilgili olumsuz veriler. \u015eubat 2022\u2019den bu yana ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam imkan\u0131 kayb\u0131 1 milyonu ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Yani, son 3 y\u0131lda 1 milyon i\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 kapanm\u0131\u015f. 1979-1981 petrol krizi ve finansal kriz d\u00f6nemi, 2008-2009 k\u00fcresel finans krizi d\u00f6nemi sonras\u0131nda, bir sonraki y\u0131l daha y\u00fcksek oranda i\u015fsizlik beklentisi veya endi\u015fesi tekrar en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. 2020\u2019deki k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bile yukar\u0131da. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f in\u015faat harcamalar\u0131nda 2003\u2019ten bu yana, 2008, 2020 sonras\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez g\u00f6zlenen daralma resesyona i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

Bu nedenle 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faiz indirim karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklenti hayli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f durumda. \u00dcstelik, beklentiler art\u0131k 0.25\u2019ten \u00e7ok, 0.50 puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcm\u00fclatif faiz indirim e\u011filimleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u011fustos ay\u0131 sonuna kadar 2024\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyreden, hatta may\u0131stan itibaren daha y\u00fcksek seyreden bir k\u00fcresel faiz indirim r\u00fczgar\u0131 da g\u00f6zleniyor. Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin de bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 kaleme al\u0131rken hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f olan 11 Eyl\u00fcl tarihli PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda en az 2 puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. A\u011fustosun ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bu beklenti 3.5 puan d\u00fczeyindeydi. Bununla birlikte, a\u011fustos ay\u0131 enflasyon verileri ve hafta ba\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) hedefleri sonras\u0131nda, beklentiler 2 puan indirim d\u00fczeyine revize oldu.<\/p>


<\/p>

G\u00dcVEN\u0130L\u0130R L\u0130MAN VARLIK<\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bir faiz indirim trendi i\u00e7inde olmalar\u0131 hem hisse senetleri piyasas\u0131 hem alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131na yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareketlenme olarak yans\u0131yor. S\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ve \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkelerin artan bir tempoda \u2018d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla birbirlerine el ense \u00e7ektikleri bir k\u00fcresel jeopolitik konjonkt\u00fcrde, alt\u0131na \u2018g\u00fcvenilir liman varl\u0131k\u2019 olarak e\u011filimin artmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmasa gerek.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

\u00dcst\u00fcne, faiz indirimi r\u00fczgar\u0131 da alt\u0131na olan talebi do\u011fal olarak besliyor. Uluslararas\u0131 k\u0131ymetli maden uzmanlar\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ons ba\u015f\u0131na 3 bin 800 dolar ile 4 bin 200 dolar aras\u0131nda yeni bir hareket band\u0131na ilerlendi\u011fini vurguluyor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak, 1979-1981 petrol ve finansal krizler d\u00f6nemindeki tarihi zirvesi art\u0131k a\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>


<\/p>

3 bin 600 dolar ve \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 art\u0131k yeni bir tarihi rekor anlam\u0131na geliyor. 1979-1981 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerinde y\u00fczde 70-75 pay\u0131 olan alt\u0131n, bilhassa So\u011fuk Sava\u015f bittikten sonra h\u0131zla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015f ve 1998-1999 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD tahvilleri cinsinden tuttuklar\u0131 rezerv, ilk defa alt\u0131n cinsinden rezervleri ge\u00e7mi\u015fti.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

26 y\u0131l sonra, alt\u0131n rezervlerinin toplam rezervlerdeki pay\u0131, yeniden ABD tahvili cinsinden rezerv b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda. ABD borsalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte dev say\u0131lan 7 ABD teknoloji \u015firketinin s\u0131rtlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 S&P 500 endeksinde, e\u011fer 7 \u015firketin ortaklar\u0131 geri sat\u0131n alma yaparak hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131 korumasalar, S&P 500 2016\u2019ya g\u00f6re reel olarak neredeyse yar\u0131 de\u011ferinde olacakt\u0131.<\/p>


<\/p>

D\u00dcZELTME NEREDEN GELECEK<\/strong><\/p>

ABD hisse senetlerinin piyasa kapitalizasyonunun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131, 1929, 1965 ve 1999 b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerinden hemen \u00f6ncesi gibi yine rekor seviyede y\u00fcksek. Uluslararas\u0131 piyasa uzmanlar\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7indeki tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f uzmanlar\u0131m\u0131z bu nedenle sa\u011flam bir d\u00fczeltme bekliyorlar. ABD\u2019nin savunma bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131 80 y\u0131l sonra yeniden \u2018sava\u015f\u2019 olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, bakal\u0131m beklenen sert piyasa d\u00fczeltmesi nereden gelecek?<\/p>


<\/p>","slug":"kuresel-faiz-indirim-ruzgari-ve-altin","tags":null,"meta_title":"K\u00fcresel faiz indirim r\u00fczgar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n","meta_description":"ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faiz indirimi ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7iyoruz. Bir tarafta ABD istihdam piyasas\u0131 ile ilgili olumsuz veriler. \u015eubat 2022\u2019den bu yana ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam imkan\u0131 kayb\u0131 1 milyonu ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda.","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1757624400tEY2bVSSfHg7P8M.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/kuresel-faiz-indirim-ruzgari-ve-altin_1200x675_da1QbZ2KG9.webp","user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":74211,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":74079,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel faiz indirim r\u00fczgar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n","home_title":"K\u00fcresel faiz indirim r\u00fczgar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faiz indirimi ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7iyoruz. Bir tarafta ABD istihdam piyasas\u0131 ile ilgili olumsuz veriler. \u015eubat 2022\u2019den bu yana ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam imkan\u0131 kayb\u0131 1 milyonu ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Yani, son 3 y\u0131lda 1 milyon i\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 kapanm\u0131\u015f. 1979-1981 petrol krizi ve finansal kriz d\u00f6nemi, 2008-2009 k\u00fcresel finans krizi d\u00f6nemi sonras\u0131nda, bir sonraki y\u0131l daha y\u00fcksek oranda i\u015fsizlik beklentisi veya endi\u015fesi tekrar en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. 2020\u2019deki k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bile yukar\u0131da. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f in\u015faat harcamalar\u0131nda 2003\u2019ten bu yana, 2008, 2020 sonras\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez g\u00f6zlenen daralma resesyona i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

Bu nedenle 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faiz indirim karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklenti hayli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f durumda. \u00dcstelik, beklentiler art\u0131k 0.25\u2019ten \u00e7ok, 0.50 puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcm\u00fclatif faiz indirim e\u011filimleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u011fustos ay\u0131 sonuna kadar 2024\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyreden, hatta may\u0131stan itibaren daha y\u00fcksek seyreden bir k\u00fcresel faiz indirim r\u00fczgar\u0131 da g\u00f6zleniyor. Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin de bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 kaleme al\u0131rken hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f olan 11 Eyl\u00fcl tarihli PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda en az 2 puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. A\u011fustosun ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bu beklenti 3.5 puan d\u00fczeyindeydi. Bununla birlikte, a\u011fustos ay\u0131 enflasyon verileri ve hafta ba\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) hedefleri sonras\u0131nda, beklentiler 2 puan indirim d\u00fczeyine revize oldu.<\/p>


<\/p>

G\u00dcVEN\u0130L\u0130R L\u0130MAN VARLIK<\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bir faiz indirim trendi i\u00e7inde olmalar\u0131 hem hisse senetleri piyasas\u0131 hem alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131na yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareketlenme olarak yans\u0131yor. S\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ve \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkelerin artan bir tempoda \u2018d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla birbirlerine el ense \u00e7ektikleri bir k\u00fcresel jeopolitik konjonkt\u00fcrde, alt\u0131na \u2018g\u00fcvenilir liman varl\u0131k\u2019 olarak e\u011filimin artmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmasa gerek.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

\u00dcst\u00fcne, faiz indirimi r\u00fczgar\u0131 da alt\u0131na olan talebi do\u011fal olarak besliyor. Uluslararas\u0131 k\u0131ymetli maden uzmanlar\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ons ba\u015f\u0131na 3 bin 800 dolar ile 4 bin 200 dolar aras\u0131nda yeni bir hareket band\u0131na ilerlendi\u011fini vurguluyor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak, 1979-1981 petrol ve finansal krizler d\u00f6nemindeki tarihi zirvesi art\u0131k a\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>


<\/p>

3 bin 600 dolar ve \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 art\u0131k yeni bir tarihi rekor anlam\u0131na geliyor. 1979-1981 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerinde y\u00fczde 70-75 pay\u0131 olan alt\u0131n, bilhassa So\u011fuk Sava\u015f bittikten sonra h\u0131zla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015f ve 1998-1999 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD tahvilleri cinsinden tuttuklar\u0131 rezerv, ilk defa alt\u0131n cinsinden rezervleri ge\u00e7mi\u015fti.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

26 y\u0131l sonra, alt\u0131n rezervlerinin toplam rezervlerdeki pay\u0131, yeniden ABD tahvili cinsinden rezerv b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda. ABD borsalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte dev say\u0131lan 7 ABD teknoloji \u015firketinin s\u0131rtlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 S&P 500 endeksinde, e\u011fer 7 \u015firketin ortaklar\u0131 geri sat\u0131n alma yaparak hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131 korumasalar, S&P 500 2016\u2019ya g\u00f6re reel olarak neredeyse yar\u0131 de\u011ferinde olacakt\u0131.<\/p>


<\/p>

D\u00dcZELTME NEREDEN GELECEK<\/strong><\/p>

ABD hisse senetlerinin piyasa kapitalizasyonunun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131, 1929, 1965 ve 1999 b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerinden hemen \u00f6ncesi gibi yine rekor seviyede y\u00fcksek. Uluslararas\u0131 piyasa uzmanlar\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7indeki tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f uzmanlar\u0131m\u0131z bu nedenle sa\u011flam bir d\u00fczeltme bekliyorlar. ABD\u2019nin savunma bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131 80 y\u0131l sonra yeniden \u2018sava\u015f\u2019 olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, bakal\u0131m beklenen sert piyasa d\u00fczeltmesi nereden gelecek?<\/p>


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