{"status":true,"post":{"id":31881,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 20:54:03","created_at":"2022-03-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T17:54:03.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":31881,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u2018K\u00fcresel enerji\u2019de t\u00fcm kartlar masada","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Rusya-Ukrayna gerginli\u011fi 4. haftas\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken, k\u00fcresel emtia ve finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6tesinde, esas k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda ciddi bir depreme ve belirsizli\u011fe sebep oldu. Mevcut \u2018k\u00fcresel enerji denklemi\u2019nde, bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkeler ile ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fi, arz-talep dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftirmek neredeyse imkans\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, her \u015feyden \u00f6nemlisi, tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkelerin neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn en az 3 ile 5 y\u0131l aras\u0131nda orta ve uzun vadeli tedarik kontratlar\u0131 var. Bu nedenle, bu \u00fclkelere bir anda d\u00f6n\u00fcp, \u2018tedariklerini ba\u015fka bir co\u011frafyaya kayd\u0131r\u2019 demek neredeyse imkans\u0131z. Bu noktada, bilhassa petrol ve do\u011falgazda \u00f6nde gelen tedarik\u00e7i konumundaki \u00fclkelerin t\u00fcm\u00fcyle \u2018k\u00fcresel fosil yak\u0131tlar\u2019 denklemini yeniden kurmak gerekiyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak en \u00f6nemli petrol tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkesi, ortalama her g\u00fcn k\u00fcresel piyasaya 6.5 ile 8 milyon varil aras\u0131nda petrol ihra\u00e7 eden Suudi Arabistan. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak 4.5 ile 6 milyon varil aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen ihracat\u0131 ile Rusya takip ediyor. Irak, 2012\u2019den bu yana, k\u00fcresel piyasaya ihracat ama\u00e7l\u0131 olarak verdi\u011fi petrol\u00fc 2 milyon varilden 4 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. ABD, 2012\u2019de, 41 y\u0131l sonra kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, 2013\u2019ten bu yana aral\u0131ks\u0131z art\u0131rarak 3 ile 3.4 milyon varil aras\u0131nda bir seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kararak, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 2.5 ile 3.3 milyon varil aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00dclkelerin g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimi ile g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat\u0131n\u0131 birbirine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmayal\u0131m.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
DO\u011eALGAZDA DENKLEM KARI\u015eIK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli petrol \u00fcreticisi \u015fu anda g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda 16 milyon varili dahi ge\u00e7ebilen \u00fcretimi ile ABD. ABD\u2019yi 13 milyon varil ile Rusya, 12 milyon varil ile Suudi Arabistan takip ediyor. Suudi Arabistan g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretiminin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ihra\u00e7 eden en y\u00fcksek orandaki \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. Petrol rezervleri, g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat. Her bir tan\u0131mda \u00fclkelerin s\u0131ralamas\u0131 do\u011fal olarak de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Ayn\u0131 \u015fey do\u011falgaz i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek do\u011falgaz tedarik\u00e7isi, ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkesi Rusya, 240 milyar metrek\u00fcp. Rusya\u2019y\u0131 son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ldaki ciddi ata\u011f\u0131 ile 140 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile ABD takip ediyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclke ise Katar, 120-125 milyar metrek\u00fcp. 110 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile Norve\u00e7\u2019i ve 105 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile Avustralya\u2019y\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m.<\/span>
<\/span>
Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc, Katar\u2019\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 80\u2019i, ABD\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 LNG, yani s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Rusya ve Norve\u00e7\u2019in ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90 ve \u00fczeri boru hatt\u0131yla. T\u00fcm bu detayl\u0131 veriler incelendi\u011finde, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, \u0130ran, Irak, Libya, ABD g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ihracat\u0131nda tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkeler olarak daha ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devreye girebilirler; g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat\u0131 art\u0131rmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimlerini ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rmal\u0131lar; her \u015feyden \u00f6nemlisi \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fman\u0131n yeniden ray\u0131na girmesiyle, en \u00e7abuk \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ve do\u011falgaz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlar ne zaman kalkar (uzmanlara g\u00f6re en erken haziran), bunlar\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc, t\u00fcm kartlar masada. Do\u011falgazda ise denklem daha kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz, boru hatt\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ihracata <\/span>
g\u00f6re daha me\u015fakkatli.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
ENERJ\u0130 K\u00d6PR\u00dcS\u00dc \u00c7\u00d6KT\u00dc<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Hatta, fosil yak\u0131t t\u00fcrevleri olarak petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131 ge\u00e7elim, Almanya gibi \u2018ye\u015fil enerji\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli savunucusu olan bir \u00fclkenin Federal Ekonomik \u0130\u015fler ve \u0130klim Eylemi Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcste\u015far\u0131 ve Agora Energiewende d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015funun kurucular\u0131ndan Dr. Patrick Graichen\u2019in \u2018k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u2019 i\u00e7in s\u00f6yledikleri de kritik \u00f6nemde. Graichen\u2019in ifadesiyle, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n son ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla do\u011falgaz\u0131n bir enerji k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fc teknolojisi oldu\u011fu anlat\u0131s\u0131 bozuldu, k\u00f6pr\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc.<\/span>
<\/span>
Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede, muhtemelen enerji \u015febekesinde daha fazla k\u00f6m\u00fcr; uzun vadede ise daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ye\u015fil hidrojen anlam\u0131na geliyor. Oysa, Dr. Graichen 2014\u2019ten bu yana \u2018net-s\u0131f\u0131r karbon\u2019 hedefleri i\u00e7in k\u00f6m\u00fcrle vedala\u015fman\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu; yenilenebilir enerjiye daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015fman\u0131n \u015fart oldu\u011funu vurguluyordu. Rusya-Ukrayna gerginli\u011finin t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada bir anda \u00f6nceliklendirdi\u011fi \u2018enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi\u2019 konusunun \u2018ye\u015fil kalk\u0131nma\u2019, \u2018ye\u015fil enerji\u2019 ve \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n fazlaca \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesinden kaynaklanan bir tedirginlik de g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-enerjide-tum-kartlar-masada","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018K\u00fcresel enerji\u2019de t\u00fcm kartlar masada","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1081,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":31980,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":31881,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u2018K\u00fcresel enerji\u2019de t\u00fcm kartlar masada","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Rusya-Ukrayna gerginli\u011fi 4. haftas\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken, k\u00fcresel emtia ve finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6tesinde, esas k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda ciddi bir depreme ve belirsizli\u011fe sebep oldu. Mevcut \u2018k\u00fcresel enerji denklemi\u2019nde, bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkeler ile ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fi, arz-talep dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftirmek neredeyse imkans\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, her \u015feyden \u00f6nemlisi, tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkelerin neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn en az 3 ile 5 y\u0131l aras\u0131nda orta ve uzun vadeli tedarik kontratlar\u0131 var. Bu nedenle, bu \u00fclkelere bir anda d\u00f6n\u00fcp, \u2018tedariklerini ba\u015fka bir co\u011frafyaya kayd\u0131r\u2019 demek neredeyse imkans\u0131z. Bu noktada, bilhassa petrol ve do\u011falgazda \u00f6nde gelen tedarik\u00e7i konumundaki \u00fclkelerin t\u00fcm\u00fcyle \u2018k\u00fcresel fosil yak\u0131tlar\u2019 denklemini yeniden kurmak gerekiyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak en \u00f6nemli petrol tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkesi, ortalama her g\u00fcn k\u00fcresel piyasaya 6.5 ile 8 milyon varil aras\u0131nda petrol ihra\u00e7 eden Suudi Arabistan. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak 4.5 ile 6 milyon varil aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen ihracat\u0131 ile Rusya takip ediyor. Irak, 2012\u2019den bu yana, k\u00fcresel piyasaya ihracat ama\u00e7l\u0131 olarak verdi\u011fi petrol\u00fc 2 milyon varilden 4 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. ABD, 2012\u2019de, 41 y\u0131l sonra kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, 2013\u2019ten bu yana aral\u0131ks\u0131z art\u0131rarak 3 ile 3.4 milyon varil aras\u0131nda bir seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kararak, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 2.5 ile 3.3 milyon varil aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00dclkelerin g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimi ile g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat\u0131n\u0131 birbirine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmayal\u0131m.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
DO\u011eALGAZDA DENKLEM KARI\u015eIK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli petrol \u00fcreticisi \u015fu anda g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda 16 milyon varili dahi ge\u00e7ebilen \u00fcretimi ile ABD. ABD\u2019yi 13 milyon varil ile Rusya, 12 milyon varil ile Suudi Arabistan takip ediyor. Suudi Arabistan g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretiminin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ihra\u00e7 eden en y\u00fcksek orandaki \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. Petrol rezervleri, g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat. Her bir tan\u0131mda \u00fclkelerin s\u0131ralamas\u0131 do\u011fal olarak de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Ayn\u0131 \u015fey do\u011falgaz i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek do\u011falgaz tedarik\u00e7isi, ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkesi Rusya, 240 milyar metrek\u00fcp. Rusya\u2019y\u0131 son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ldaki ciddi ata\u011f\u0131 ile 140 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile ABD takip ediyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclke ise Katar, 120-125 milyar metrek\u00fcp. 110 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile Norve\u00e7\u2019i ve 105 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile Avustralya\u2019y\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m.<\/span>
<\/span>
Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc, Katar\u2019\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 80\u2019i, ABD\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 LNG, yani s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Rusya ve Norve\u00e7\u2019in ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90 ve \u00fczeri boru hatt\u0131yla. T\u00fcm bu detayl\u0131 veriler incelendi\u011finde, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, \u0130ran, Irak, Libya, ABD g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ihracat\u0131nda tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclkeler olarak daha ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devreye girebilirler; g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat\u0131 art\u0131rmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimlerini ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rmal\u0131lar; her \u015feyden \u00f6nemlisi \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fman\u0131n yeniden ray\u0131na girmesiyle, en \u00e7abuk \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ve do\u011falgaz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlar ne zaman kalkar (uzmanlara g\u00f6re en erken haziran), bunlar\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc, t\u00fcm kartlar masada. Do\u011falgazda ise denklem daha kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz, boru hatt\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ihracata <\/span>
g\u00f6re daha me\u015fakkatli.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
ENERJ\u0130 K\u00d6PR\u00dcS\u00dc \u00c7\u00d6KT\u00dc<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Hatta, fosil yak\u0131t t\u00fcrevleri olarak petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131 ge\u00e7elim, Almanya gibi \u2018ye\u015fil enerji\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli savunucusu olan bir \u00fclkenin Federal Ekonomik \u0130\u015fler ve \u0130klim Eylemi Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcste\u015far\u0131 ve Agora Energiewende d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015funun kurucular\u0131ndan Dr. Patrick Graichen\u2019in \u2018k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u2019 i\u00e7in s\u00f6yledikleri de kritik \u00f6nemde. Graichen\u2019in ifadesiyle, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n son ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla do\u011falgaz\u0131n bir enerji k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fc teknolojisi oldu\u011fu anlat\u0131s\u0131 bozuldu, k\u00f6pr\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc.<\/span>
<\/span>
Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede, muhtemelen enerji \u015febekesinde daha fazla k\u00f6m\u00fcr; uzun vadede ise daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ye\u015fil hidrojen anlam\u0131na geliyor. Oysa, Dr. Graichen 2014\u2019ten bu yana \u2018net-s\u0131f\u0131r karbon\u2019 hedefleri i\u00e7in k\u00f6m\u00fcrle vedala\u015fman\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu; yenilenebilir enerjiye daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015fman\u0131n \u015fart oldu\u011funu vurguluyordu. Rusya-Ukrayna gerginli\u011finin t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada bir anda \u00f6nceliklendirdi\u011fi \u2018enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi\u2019 konusunun \u2018ye\u015fil kalk\u0131nma\u2019, \u2018ye\u015fil enerji\u2019 ve \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n fazlaca \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesinden kaynaklanan bir tedirginlik de g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-enerjide-tum-kartlar-masada","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018K\u00fcresel enerji\u2019de t\u00fcm kartlar masada","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1081,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}