{"status":true,"post":{"id":15057,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:53:33","created_at":"2016-11-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:53:33.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":15057,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomide s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara ortak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Bir s\u00fcredir, Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcm\u00fcz Do\u00e7. Dr. \u0130brahim Kal\u0131n\u2019\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018Ben, \u00d6teki ve \u00d6tesi\u2019ni okuyorum. Son k\u00fcresel finans krizinin d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde sebep oldu\u011fu ve \u2018yeni normal\u2019 dedi\u011fimiz ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131, d\u00fcnyada y\u00fckselen \u2018yeni orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u2019, bat\u0131l\u0131 ekonomilerdeki \u2018a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011fc\u0131la\u015fma\u2019, Atlantik\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve Pasifik\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u015feklinde s\u0131ralamaktay\u0131z. Bat\u0131l\u0131 ekonomilerde artan sorunlar ve Asya-Pasifik ekonomilerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta, y\u0131llar\u0131n getirdi\u011fi k\u0131rg\u0131nl\u0131k ve k\u0131zg\u0131nl\u0131kla, bizleri bir miktar tebess\u00fcm ettirdiyse de geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde var olan ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n giderek derinle\u015fmesi, k\u00fcresel finans krizinin 6. y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren bizlerin de can\u0131n\u0131 ac\u0131tmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 s\u00fcrecini yeniden yakalayabilmesi ad\u0131na, G20 toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda \u2018do\u011fuyu da, bat\u0131y\u0131 da a\u015fan hakikate y\u00f6nelmek\u2019 elzem hale gelmi\u015f durumda. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan \u00fcretim ve ticaret, art\u0131k kimin kabahatli, kimin hakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu aramam\u0131z gereken \u00e7\u0131tay\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrkiye, G20\u2019nin tavsiyeleri do\u011frultusunda, kamu mali disiplinine azami hassasiyet ile kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n en iyi hakk\u0131n\u0131 veren \u00fclke. Kamu-\u00d6zel Sekt\u00f6r \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi (PPP) projelerinin y\u00fczde 50\u2019sini d\u00fcnyada T\u00fcrkiye yap\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu anlamda, G20 \u00fcyesi 10 geli\u015fmekte olan, hatta kimi geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilere ilham verecek y\u00f6nleri var. 1990\u2019dan y\u00fczde 37.1 olan d\u00fcnyada yoksulluk oran\u0131, 2015\u2019de y\u00fczde 9.6\u2019ya inmi\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 E7 Grubu \u2018y\u00fckselen yeni orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u2019tan en \u00e7ok yararlanacak ekonomiler olacak iken, 2010\u2019dan itibaren ve 2013\u2019te bilhassa yo\u011fun olarak ter\u00f6r ve siyasi operasyonlara maruz b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131k. Bu s\u00fcreci, \u2018ekonomide seferberlik\u2019 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile a\u015farsak, 2017\u2019de iyi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalayabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018MAN\u015eET\u2019 VE \u2018\u00c7EK\u0130RDEK\u2019 F\u0130NANSI RAHATLATTI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">3 Kas\u0131m Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri, kimi ekonomist arkada\u015flar verilerin i\u00e7inden belirli bir olumsuzluk yakalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsalar da ikinci ayd\u0131r ekonomistleri ters k\u00f6\u015feye yat\u0131r\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0.72 ayl\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu bekleyen ekonomistler, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri y\u00fczde 0.18 art\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon y\u00fczde 8.1\u2019den 7.3\u2019e gerileyince, epey \u015fa\u015f\u0131rm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7in de ekonomistlerin beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.62\u2019lik bir enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 idi. Benim, veri a\u00e7\u0131klanmazdan bir iki dakika \u00f6nce sosyal medyada payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m tahminim ise y\u00fczde 1.02-1.32 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 1.44 olmas\u0131 ile y\u0131ll\u0131k man\u015fet enflasyon, bir kez daha, y\u00fczde 7.16\u2019ya geriledi. TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirlerken dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018H\u2019 ve \u2018I\u2019 tan\u0131ml\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verileri de s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 7.01 ve y\u00fczde 7.04\u2019e geriledi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nceki iki yaz\u0131mdan hat\u0131rlatarak, ekim ay\u0131nda da enflasyonun piyasa beklentileri alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n hem TCMB\u2019nin ekim ay\u0131na kadar ara vermeden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131ndaki indirim kararlar\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti\u011fini hem de bu hafta bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n kredi faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki \u20182. indirim\u2019 dalgas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini belirtmem gerekiyor. Bu durumda, TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun kas\u0131m ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131nda bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirim alan\u0131 daha olu\u015fmu\u015f durumda. Bununla birlikte, piyasa, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ortas\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimi ile ilgili o ad\u0131m\u0131 ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Enflasyondaki yumu\u015fama, ayn\u0131 zamanda, TL\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki olas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 da hafifletmekte. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>GEL\u0130\u015eMEKTE OLAN \u00dcLKE PARA B\u0130R\u0130MLER\u0130 DE\u011eER KAZANAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r maa\u015f bordrosu verisi (ADP) beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmi\u015f, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu verisi ise tersine, beklenenin \u00fczerinde gelmi\u015fken, siz bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 okurken a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olacak; ben bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 yazarken hen\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015f olan ABD ekim ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin de beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmesi halinde, TL ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimleri de\u011fer kazanabilir. Bakal\u0131m, yeni haftaya daha iyi d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile ba\u015fl\u0131yor muyuz?<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-ekonomide-sikintilara-ortak-cozum","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomide s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara ortak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":94,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":15156,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":15057,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomide s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara ortak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Bir s\u00fcredir, Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcm\u00fcz Do\u00e7. Dr. \u0130brahim Kal\u0131n\u2019\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018Ben, \u00d6teki ve \u00d6tesi\u2019ni okuyorum. Son k\u00fcresel finans krizinin d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde sebep oldu\u011fu ve \u2018yeni normal\u2019 dedi\u011fimiz ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131, d\u00fcnyada y\u00fckselen \u2018yeni orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u2019, bat\u0131l\u0131 ekonomilerdeki \u2018a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011fc\u0131la\u015fma\u2019, Atlantik\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve Pasifik\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u015feklinde s\u0131ralamaktay\u0131z. Bat\u0131l\u0131 ekonomilerde artan sorunlar ve Asya-Pasifik ekonomilerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta, y\u0131llar\u0131n getirdi\u011fi k\u0131rg\u0131nl\u0131k ve k\u0131zg\u0131nl\u0131kla, bizleri bir miktar tebess\u00fcm ettirdiyse de geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde var olan ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n giderek derinle\u015fmesi, k\u00fcresel finans krizinin 6. y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren bizlerin de can\u0131n\u0131 ac\u0131tmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 s\u00fcrecini yeniden yakalayabilmesi ad\u0131na, G20 toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda \u2018do\u011fuyu da, bat\u0131y\u0131 da a\u015fan hakikate y\u00f6nelmek\u2019 elzem hale gelmi\u015f durumda. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan \u00fcretim ve ticaret, art\u0131k kimin kabahatli, kimin hakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu aramam\u0131z gereken \u00e7\u0131tay\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrkiye, G20\u2019nin tavsiyeleri do\u011frultusunda, kamu mali disiplinine azami hassasiyet ile kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n en iyi hakk\u0131n\u0131 veren \u00fclke. Kamu-\u00d6zel Sekt\u00f6r \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi (PPP) projelerinin y\u00fczde 50\u2019sini d\u00fcnyada T\u00fcrkiye yap\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu anlamda, G20 \u00fcyesi 10 geli\u015fmekte olan, hatta kimi geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilere ilham verecek y\u00f6nleri var. 1990\u2019dan y\u00fczde 37.1 olan d\u00fcnyada yoksulluk oran\u0131, 2015\u2019de y\u00fczde 9.6\u2019ya inmi\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 E7 Grubu \u2018y\u00fckselen yeni orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u2019tan en \u00e7ok yararlanacak ekonomiler olacak iken, 2010\u2019dan itibaren ve 2013\u2019te bilhassa yo\u011fun olarak ter\u00f6r ve siyasi operasyonlara maruz b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131k. Bu s\u00fcreci, \u2018ekonomide seferberlik\u2019 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile a\u015farsak, 2017\u2019de iyi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalayabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018MAN\u015eET\u2019 VE \u2018\u00c7EK\u0130RDEK\u2019 F\u0130NANSI RAHATLATTI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">3 Kas\u0131m Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri, kimi ekonomist arkada\u015flar verilerin i\u00e7inden belirli bir olumsuzluk yakalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsalar da ikinci ayd\u0131r ekonomistleri ters k\u00f6\u015feye yat\u0131r\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0.72 ayl\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu bekleyen ekonomistler, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri y\u00fczde 0.18 art\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon y\u00fczde 8.1\u2019den 7.3\u2019e gerileyince, epey \u015fa\u015f\u0131rm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7in de ekonomistlerin beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.62\u2019lik bir enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 idi. Benim, veri a\u00e7\u0131klanmazdan bir iki dakika \u00f6nce sosyal medyada payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m tahminim ise y\u00fczde 1.02-1.32 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 1.44 olmas\u0131 ile y\u0131ll\u0131k man\u015fet enflasyon, bir kez daha, y\u00fczde 7.16\u2019ya geriledi. TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirlerken dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018H\u2019 ve \u2018I\u2019 tan\u0131ml\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verileri de s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 7.01 ve y\u00fczde 7.04\u2019e geriledi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nceki iki yaz\u0131mdan hat\u0131rlatarak, ekim ay\u0131nda da enflasyonun piyasa beklentileri alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n hem TCMB\u2019nin ekim ay\u0131na kadar ara vermeden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131ndaki indirim kararlar\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti\u011fini hem de bu hafta bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n kredi faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki \u20182. indirim\u2019 dalgas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini belirtmem gerekiyor. Bu durumda, TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun kas\u0131m ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131nda bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirim alan\u0131 daha olu\u015fmu\u015f durumda. Bununla birlikte, piyasa, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ortas\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimi ile ilgili o ad\u0131m\u0131 ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Enflasyondaki yumu\u015fama, ayn\u0131 zamanda, TL\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki olas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 da hafifletmekte. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>GEL\u0130\u015eMEKTE OLAN \u00dcLKE PARA B\u0130R\u0130MLER\u0130 DE\u011eER KAZANAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r maa\u015f bordrosu verisi (ADP) beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmi\u015f, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu verisi ise tersine, beklenenin \u00fczerinde gelmi\u015fken, siz bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 okurken a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olacak; ben bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 yazarken hen\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015f olan ABD ekim ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin de beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmesi halinde, TL ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimleri de\u011fer kazanabilir. Bakal\u0131m, yeni haftaya daha iyi d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile ba\u015fl\u0131yor muyuz?<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-ekonomide-sikintilara-ortak-cozum","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomide s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara ortak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":94,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}