{"status":true,"post":{"id":55674,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-09-30 07:41:00","created_at":"2024-09-30T04:41:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-09-30T04:41:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":55674,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi zorluklar\u0131 a\u015fabilecek mi?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"


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OECD\u2019nin yay\u0131nlanan \u2018ara d\u00f6nem\u2019 k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu, 2024\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 3.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fine; k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025\u2019te de y\u00fczde 3.2 olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. K\u00fcresel jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik gerginliklere ra\u011fmen beklenenden daha olumlu seyreden b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendi, OECD ekonomistlerinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini 0.1 puan iyile\u015ftirmelerine sebep oldu. OECD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2024 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde 0.2 puan d\u00fczeltmeyle y\u00fczde 3.2; 2025 i\u00e7in ise 0.1 d\u00fczeltmeyle y\u00fczde 3.1 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 beklenirken, ABD i\u00e7in s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2.6 ve 1.6; Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 0.7 ve 1.2 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

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YAPI\u015eKAN ENFLASYON R\u0130SK\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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OECD, k\u00fcresel enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda g\u00f6receli iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etse de \u2018yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon\u2019 riski a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, bilhassa OECD ve G20 \u00fclkelerinde hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00f6zlenen fiyat kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n dikkatle takip edilmesi gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor. OECD\u2019nin istikrarl\u0131 ve iyile\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyonla nispeten uyumlu bir d\u00fcnya ekonomisi analizi, k\u00fcresel ekonominin k\u00f6\u015feyi d\u00f6nebilece\u011fine dair umutlara i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, OECD\u2019nin raporu jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki muallakl\u0131k ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek reel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi hakk\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin devam\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini de hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonun olas\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 olarak, devam eden i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n maliyet enflasyonuna etkisi, baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki y\u00fcksek k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 (h\u0131rs enflasyonu) da hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

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JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K GERG\u0130NL\u0130KLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, jeopolitik gerginliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak s\u00fcreklilik arz eden y\u00fcksek navlun maliyetleri ve ithal mallar\u0131n maliyetlerini art\u0131ran ek jeopolitik veya ticaret gerginlikleri de radarda. T\u00fcm bu risklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklenenden daha yava\u015f ilerleyebilecek bir dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin de hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn enflasyon beklentilerini bir miktar daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde so\u011futucu etkisinin de bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 etkisi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli risk ise \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkelerin gerek kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, gerekse gerekli altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranl\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131n vadesi doluyor ve yeni bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n maliyetleri art\u0131k daha y\u00fcksek.<\/span><\/p>

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OECD raporu, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerdeki mevcut kurumsal borcun yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30\u2019unun 2026\u2019ya kadar vadesinin dolmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ticari gayrimenkul piyasalar\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 tablosu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. OECD, jeopolitik gerginlikler \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr ise artacak hane halk\u0131 g\u00fcveninin k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde artm\u0131\u015f olan tasarruflar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n daha harcanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye pozitif etkisi olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. OECD ve G20 \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 55 \u00fclkeye y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde 30\u2019a yak\u0131n \u00fclkede sosyal destek ve te\u015fviklere y\u00f6nelik reformlar\u0131n, 25\u2019e yak\u0131n \u00fclkede ise emeklilik reformlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceliklendirildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 40\u2019a yak\u0131n \u00fclkede dolayl\u0131 vergilerin, 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde \u00fclkede varl\u0131k vergilerinin ve 18 \u00fclkede ise gelir vergilerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik e\u011filimlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. E\u011fer jeopolitik gerginlikler \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr ise k\u00fcresel ekonominin k\u00f6\u015feyi d\u00f6nme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenecek.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-zorluklari-asabilecek-mi","tags":null,"meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi zorluklar\u0131 a\u015fabilecek mi?","meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727643600G8RZGSf2QIaImIE.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":548,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":55800,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":55674,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi zorluklar\u0131 a\u015fabilecek mi?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"


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OECD\u2019nin yay\u0131nlanan \u2018ara d\u00f6nem\u2019 k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu, 2024\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 3.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fine; k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025\u2019te de y\u00fczde 3.2 olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. K\u00fcresel jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik gerginliklere ra\u011fmen beklenenden daha olumlu seyreden b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendi, OECD ekonomistlerinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini 0.1 puan iyile\u015ftirmelerine sebep oldu. OECD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2024 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde 0.2 puan d\u00fczeltmeyle y\u00fczde 3.2; 2025 i\u00e7in ise 0.1 d\u00fczeltmeyle y\u00fczde 3.1 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 beklenirken, ABD i\u00e7in s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2.6 ve 1.6; Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 0.7 ve 1.2 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

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YAPI\u015eKAN ENFLASYON R\u0130SK\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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OECD, k\u00fcresel enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda g\u00f6receli iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etse de \u2018yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon\u2019 riski a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, bilhassa OECD ve G20 \u00fclkelerinde hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00f6zlenen fiyat kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n dikkatle takip edilmesi gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor. OECD\u2019nin istikrarl\u0131 ve iyile\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyonla nispeten uyumlu bir d\u00fcnya ekonomisi analizi, k\u00fcresel ekonominin k\u00f6\u015feyi d\u00f6nebilece\u011fine dair umutlara i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, OECD\u2019nin raporu jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki muallakl\u0131k ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek reel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi hakk\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin devam\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini de hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonun olas\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 olarak, devam eden i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n maliyet enflasyonuna etkisi, baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki y\u00fcksek k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 (h\u0131rs enflasyonu) da hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

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JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K GERG\u0130NL\u0130KLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, jeopolitik gerginliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak s\u00fcreklilik arz eden y\u00fcksek navlun maliyetleri ve ithal mallar\u0131n maliyetlerini art\u0131ran ek jeopolitik veya ticaret gerginlikleri de radarda. T\u00fcm bu risklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklenenden daha yava\u015f ilerleyebilecek bir dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin de hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn enflasyon beklentilerini bir miktar daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde so\u011futucu etkisinin de bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 etkisi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli risk ise \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkelerin gerek kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, gerekse gerekli altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranl\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131n vadesi doluyor ve yeni bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n maliyetleri art\u0131k daha y\u00fcksek.<\/span><\/p>

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OECD raporu, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerdeki mevcut kurumsal borcun yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30\u2019unun 2026\u2019ya kadar vadesinin dolmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ticari gayrimenkul piyasalar\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 tablosu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. OECD, jeopolitik gerginlikler \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr ise artacak hane halk\u0131 g\u00fcveninin k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde artm\u0131\u015f olan tasarruflar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n daha harcanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye pozitif etkisi olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. OECD ve G20 \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 55 \u00fclkeye y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde 30\u2019a yak\u0131n \u00fclkede sosyal destek ve te\u015fviklere y\u00f6nelik reformlar\u0131n, 25\u2019e yak\u0131n \u00fclkede ise emeklilik reformlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceliklendirildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 40\u2019a yak\u0131n \u00fclkede dolayl\u0131 vergilerin, 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde \u00fclkede varl\u0131k vergilerinin ve 18 \u00fclkede ise gelir vergilerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik e\u011filimlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. E\u011fer jeopolitik gerginlikler \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr ise k\u00fcresel ekonominin k\u00f6\u015feyi d\u00f6nme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenecek.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-zorluklari-asabilecek-mi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727643600G8RZGSf2QIaImIE.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1727643600G8RZGSf2QIaImIE.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi zorluklar\u0131 a\u015fabilecek mi?","meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":548,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}