{"status":true,"post":{"id":34252,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:34:21","created_at":"2022-08-04T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:34:21.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":34252,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerindeki kara bulutlar","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, Avrupa\u2019daki enerji krizi, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gittik\u00e7e s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, salg\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kapanmalarla yava\u015flayan \u00c7in ekonomisi, yine \u00c7in\u2019de gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ya\u015fanan sars\u0131nt\u0131lar, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131nda geli\u015fen ekonomileri zorlayan bor\u00e7 stoku\u2026 K\u00fcresel ekonominin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u00f6ken sorunlar\u0131n listesi uzun. Bu \u00e7etrefilli ortam b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekerken, enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
IMF\u2019nin g\u00fcncel tahminlerine g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en sene y\u00fczde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen k\u00fcresel ekonominin 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
2022 i\u00e7in sene ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.4\u2019t\u00fc. Sorunlar \u00fcst \u00fcste bindik\u00e7e b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri s\u00fcrekli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in iktisadi faaliyetin daha da yava\u015flama ihtimali mevcut. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler belki bir s\u00fcrprizle y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda beklenenden bir t\u0131k daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilirler. IMF\u2019nin enflasyon tahminlerinde ise yakla\u015f\u0131k bir puanl\u0131k yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon var. Enflasyonun bu y\u0131l geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde y\u00fczde 6.6, geli\u015fen ekonomilerde ise y\u00fczde 9.5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bizim enflasyon rakamlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla bunlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclse de k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu seviyeleri son 30-40 y\u0131lda g\u00f6rmeye al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m. <\/span>
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KOLAY \u00c7\u00d6Z\u00dcM YOK<\/strong><\/span>
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Ayn\u0131 anda \u00e7ok fazla sorunun bir araya gelmesi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in para arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve kredi geni\u015flemesini frenlemek gerekiyor. Ama bunu yaparken de s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n dozu iyi ayarlanmal\u0131. Zira, enflasyon t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada talep ve arz kanallar\u0131ndan gelen e\u015f anl\u0131 etkilerle y\u00fckseldi. Bu da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etki alan\u0131n\u0131n belli noktalarda t\u0131kanabilece\u011fini bize s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7arlarsa, bu hamlenin enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6ndeki marjinal etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam \u00e7\u00f6kebilir.<\/span>
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\u00dclkeler bu d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketimi de\u011fil, \u00fcretimi desteklemeli. K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin normalle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in her \u00fclkenin kendi \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015fen sorumlulu\u011fu yerine getirmesi laz\u0131m. Bu d\u00f6nemin kendine has ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde (enerji ve finans gibi) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00e2r elde etmi\u015f \u015firketlere ge\u00e7ici vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 uygulanabilir. Bu vergiler, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltici, dar gelirli hanelerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fc\u00e7lerini artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki sosyal harcamalar\u0131 finanse etmekte kullan\u0131labilir. G\u0131da ve enerji krizleriyle m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in ise diplomasiye ihtiya\u00e7 var. T\u0131pk\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin giri\u015fimleriyle \u00f6nceki hafta Karadeniz\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131lan tah\u0131l koridorunda oldu\u011fu gibi. T\u00fcm bunlar hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi kolay olmayan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerileri. Bu y\u00fczden de k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in riskler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-uzerindeki-kara-bulutlar","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerindeki kara bulutlar","meta_description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1095,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":34351,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":34252,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerindeki kara bulutlar","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, Avrupa\u2019daki enerji krizi, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gittik\u00e7e s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, salg\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kapanmalarla yava\u015flayan \u00c7in ekonomisi, yine \u00c7in\u2019de gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ya\u015fanan sars\u0131nt\u0131lar, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131nda geli\u015fen ekonomileri zorlayan bor\u00e7 stoku\u2026 K\u00fcresel ekonominin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u00f6ken sorunlar\u0131n listesi uzun. Bu \u00e7etrefilli ortam b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekerken, enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
IMF\u2019nin g\u00fcncel tahminlerine g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en sene y\u00fczde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen k\u00fcresel ekonominin 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
2022 i\u00e7in sene ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.4\u2019t\u00fc. Sorunlar \u00fcst \u00fcste bindik\u00e7e b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri s\u00fcrekli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in iktisadi faaliyetin daha da yava\u015flama ihtimali mevcut. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler belki bir s\u00fcrprizle y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda beklenenden bir t\u0131k daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilirler. IMF\u2019nin enflasyon tahminlerinde ise yakla\u015f\u0131k bir puanl\u0131k yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon var. Enflasyonun bu y\u0131l geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde y\u00fczde 6.6, geli\u015fen ekonomilerde ise y\u00fczde 9.5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bizim enflasyon rakamlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla bunlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclse de k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu seviyeleri son 30-40 y\u0131lda g\u00f6rmeye al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m. <\/span>
<\/span>
KOLAY \u00c7\u00d6Z\u00dcM YOK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Ayn\u0131 anda \u00e7ok fazla sorunun bir araya gelmesi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in para arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve kredi geni\u015flemesini frenlemek gerekiyor. Ama bunu yaparken de s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n dozu iyi ayarlanmal\u0131. Zira, enflasyon t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada talep ve arz kanallar\u0131ndan gelen e\u015f anl\u0131 etkilerle y\u00fckseldi. Bu da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etki alan\u0131n\u0131n belli noktalarda t\u0131kanabilece\u011fini bize s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7arlarsa, bu hamlenin enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6ndeki marjinal etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam \u00e7\u00f6kebilir.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00dclkeler bu d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketimi de\u011fil, \u00fcretimi desteklemeli. K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin normalle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in her \u00fclkenin kendi \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015fen sorumlulu\u011fu yerine getirmesi laz\u0131m. Bu d\u00f6nemin kendine has ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde (enerji ve finans gibi) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00e2r elde etmi\u015f \u015firketlere ge\u00e7ici vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 uygulanabilir. Bu vergiler, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltici, dar gelirli hanelerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fc\u00e7lerini artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki sosyal harcamalar\u0131 finanse etmekte kullan\u0131labilir. G\u0131da ve enerji krizleriyle m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in ise diplomasiye ihtiya\u00e7 var. T\u0131pk\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin giri\u015fimleriyle \u00f6nceki hafta Karadeniz\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131lan tah\u0131l koridorunda oldu\u011fu gibi. T\u00fcm bunlar hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi kolay olmayan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerileri. Bu y\u00fczden de k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in riskler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-uzerindeki-kara-bulutlar","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerindeki kara bulutlar","meta_description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1095,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}