{"status":true,"post":{"id":51020,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-04-22 08:10:00","created_at":"2024-04-22T05:10:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-04-22T05:10:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":51020,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi jeopolitik risklerin pen\u00e7esinden kurtulam\u0131yor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler her daim k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi etkilemi\u015ftir. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik gerilimlerin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesini bekleyenler \u00e7o\u011funluktayd\u0131. Ancak, \u00f6yle olmad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle 2008\u2019deki k\u00fcresel finans krizinden sonra jeopolitik riskler, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi daha s\u0131k yoklamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Arap Bahar\u0131 sonras\u0131 patlak veren Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan gelen b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131 Ortado\u011fu ve Avrupa\u2019da siyasi ve iktisadi hayat\u0131 derinden etkiledi. 2014\u2019te Rusya\u2019n\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 ilhak\u0131 bir ba\u015fka d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131yd\u0131. ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131nda 2016\u2019dan bu yana ya\u015fanan gerilim, yeni bir \u2018so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 and\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu gerilim hen\u00fcz jeopolitik bir krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmese de y\u00fckselen belirsizlik ortam\u0131 ba\u015fta tedarik zincirleri olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi h\u0131rpalad\u0131. ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin Tayvan meselesi \u00fczerinden jeopolitik bir krize evrilmesi, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a korkutucu bir senaryo.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

15 YILLIK DENEY\u0130M<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal giri\u015fimi ile sars\u0131ld\u0131. Bu sava\u015f, k\u00fcresel ticareti ve enflasyonu olumsuz etkiledi. Rusya-Ukrayna aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik etkileri kayboluyordu ki, bu sefer de \u0130srail\u2019in Gazze\u2019ye ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r sald\u0131r\u0131lar jeopolitik tansiyonu yeniden y\u00fckseltti. \u0130srail\u2019in agresif ve insanl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tutumunun b\u00f6lgede yeni jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 tetikleme riski var. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fini \u0130srail ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ya\u015fad\u0131k. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Jeopolitik gerilimler, enerji ve di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak enflasyon \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Uluslararas\u0131 ticaret yava\u015flarken, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri artar. Alt\u0131n ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda normalin \u00fczerinde hareketlenmeler ya\u015fanabilir. K\u00fcresel ekonomi, jeopolitik risklerin bu tip olumsuz yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 son 15 y\u0131lda ara ara deneyimledi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya, ekonomik sorunlarla jeopolitik gerilimlerin birbirini tetikledi\u011fi k\u00f6t\u00fc bir dengeye savruldu. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin jeopolitik meseleleri s\u00fcrekli s\u00fcr\u00fcncemede b\u0131rakmas\u0131, hatta baz\u0131 tehlikeli geli\u015fmelere g\u00f6z yummalar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n zamanla daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin temel fonksiyonlar\u0131 icra edemez hale gelmesi, ter\u00f6r eylemlerinin ve sava\u015flar\u0131n adeta \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 \u00d6NLEMLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz noktada \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bekleyen \u00e7ok fazla say\u0131da ekonomik ve jeopolitik sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Ama \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7teki \u00fclkeler, \u00fc\u00e7 maymunu oynaman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7miyorlar. B\u00f6ylesi bir ortamda jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin ekonomileri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmaya devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fil. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Jeopolitik gerilimlerin en yo\u011fun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgedeyiz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6yle bir realitesi var. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla gerek \u00fclke baz\u0131nda gerekse \u015firketler \u00f6zelinde jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 gereken iktisadi \u00f6nlemleri almam\u0131z \u015fart. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin bizi karamsarl\u0131\u011fa itmesine izin vermeden, \u00fclke ekonomisinin ve \u015firketlerin d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeliyiz. Zira, i\u00e7eride makro ekonomik istikrar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flam bir temel \u00fczerine in\u015fa etti\u011finiz takdirde jeopolitik risklerin olumsuz etkilerinden g\u00f6rece daha az etkilenirsiniz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-jeopolitik-risklerin-pencesinden-kurtulamiyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713733200gthsHF4Z2S32EpW.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":6082,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":51146,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":51020,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi jeopolitik risklerin pen\u00e7esinden kurtulam\u0131yor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler her daim k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi etkilemi\u015ftir. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik gerilimlerin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesini bekleyenler \u00e7o\u011funluktayd\u0131. Ancak, \u00f6yle olmad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle 2008\u2019deki k\u00fcresel finans krizinden sonra jeopolitik riskler, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi daha s\u0131k yoklamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Arap Bahar\u0131 sonras\u0131 patlak veren Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan gelen b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131 Ortado\u011fu ve Avrupa\u2019da siyasi ve iktisadi hayat\u0131 derinden etkiledi. 2014\u2019te Rusya\u2019n\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 ilhak\u0131 bir ba\u015fka d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131yd\u0131. ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131nda 2016\u2019dan bu yana ya\u015fanan gerilim, yeni bir \u2018so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 and\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu gerilim hen\u00fcz jeopolitik bir krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmese de y\u00fckselen belirsizlik ortam\u0131 ba\u015fta tedarik zincirleri olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi h\u0131rpalad\u0131. ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin Tayvan meselesi \u00fczerinden jeopolitik bir krize evrilmesi, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a korkutucu bir senaryo.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

15 YILLIK DENEY\u0130M<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal giri\u015fimi ile sars\u0131ld\u0131. Bu sava\u015f, k\u00fcresel ticareti ve enflasyonu olumsuz etkiledi. Rusya-Ukrayna aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik etkileri kayboluyordu ki, bu sefer de \u0130srail\u2019in Gazze\u2019ye ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r sald\u0131r\u0131lar jeopolitik tansiyonu yeniden y\u00fckseltti. \u0130srail\u2019in agresif ve insanl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tutumunun b\u00f6lgede yeni jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 tetikleme riski var. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fini \u0130srail ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ya\u015fad\u0131k. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Jeopolitik gerilimler, enerji ve di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak enflasyon \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Uluslararas\u0131 ticaret yava\u015flarken, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri artar. Alt\u0131n ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda normalin \u00fczerinde hareketlenmeler ya\u015fanabilir. K\u00fcresel ekonomi, jeopolitik risklerin bu tip olumsuz yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 son 15 y\u0131lda ara ara deneyimledi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya, ekonomik sorunlarla jeopolitik gerilimlerin birbirini tetikledi\u011fi k\u00f6t\u00fc bir dengeye savruldu. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin jeopolitik meseleleri s\u00fcrekli s\u00fcr\u00fcncemede b\u0131rakmas\u0131, hatta baz\u0131 tehlikeli geli\u015fmelere g\u00f6z yummalar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n zamanla daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin temel fonksiyonlar\u0131 icra edemez hale gelmesi, ter\u00f6r eylemlerinin ve sava\u015flar\u0131n adeta \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130KT\u0130SAD\u0130 \u00d6NLEMLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz noktada \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bekleyen \u00e7ok fazla say\u0131da ekonomik ve jeopolitik sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Ama \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7teki \u00fclkeler, \u00fc\u00e7 maymunu oynaman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7miyorlar. B\u00f6ylesi bir ortamda jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin ekonomileri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmaya devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fil. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Jeopolitik gerilimlerin en yo\u011fun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgedeyiz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6yle bir realitesi var. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla gerek \u00fclke baz\u0131nda gerekse \u015firketler \u00f6zelinde jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 gereken iktisadi \u00f6nlemleri almam\u0131z \u015fart. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin bizi karamsarl\u0131\u011fa itmesine izin vermeden, \u00fclke ekonomisinin ve \u015firketlerin d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeliyiz. Zira, i\u00e7eride makro ekonomik istikrar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flam bir temel \u00fczerine in\u015fa etti\u011finiz takdirde jeopolitik risklerin olumsuz etkilerinden g\u00f6rece daha az etkilenirsiniz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-jeopolitik-risklerin-pencesinden-kurtulamiyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713733200gthsHF4Z2S32EpW.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713733200gthsHF4Z2S32EpW.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":6082,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}