{"status":true,"post":{"id":90092,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2026-05-22 10:34:00","created_at":"2026-05-22T07:34:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2026-05-22T07:34:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2026-05-22 10:34:00","source_id":null,"post_id":90092,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fta","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fta","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

K\u00fcresel ekonomi son y\u0131llarda salg\u0131n ve sava\u015flar gibi d\u0131\u015f \u015foklarla sars\u0131ld\u0131. Enflasyon y\u00fckselirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 geriledi. Ancak k\u00fcresel ekonomideki olumsuz seyri yaln\u0131zca d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara ba\u011flamak do\u011fru olmaz; ekonominin i\u00e7 dinamikleri de i\u015fleri zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinin ard\u0131ndan uzun s\u00fcre istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde gerileyen k\u00fcresel dengesizlikler, son d\u00f6nemde bir kez daha y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti.<\/span>

<\/p>

K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler, sistematik olarak baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fcksek cari fazla vermesinin do\u011furdu\u011fu riskli ortam olarak tan\u0131mlanabilir. Bu \u00fclkelerin (\u00f6zellikle ABD ve \u00c7in) k\u00fcresel ekonomideki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ve cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131ndaki kompozisyonun kemikle\u015fmesi, sorunu olu\u015fturan temel unsurlard\u0131r. ABD, uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r ihracat\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde ithalat yap\u0131yor. \u0130hracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelini 40 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir benimseyen \u00c7in ise net ihracat\u00e7\u0131 bir \u00fclkedir. \u00d6yle ki \u00c7in'in net ihracat\u0131 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

1980\u2019lerden 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llara kadar ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda her iki taraf\u0131 da tatmin eden bir ekonomik ili\u015fki a\u011f\u0131 bulunuyordu. \u00c7in \u00fcretim yap\u0131yor, ABD ise t\u00fcketim odakl\u0131 bir ekonomik yap\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. \u00c7in, ihracat fazlalar\u0131 sayesinde biriktirdi\u011fi tasarruflar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yordu. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00c7in, ABD hazine tahvillerinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 konumuna y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki bu ekonomik ili\u015fki bi\u00e7imi \u2018\u00c7inmerika\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/span>

<\/p>

Ancak b\u00f6ylesine \u00e7arp\u0131k bir ekonomik ili\u015fkinin uzun vadede s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi. 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinin tetikleyicilerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u2018\u00c7inmerika\u2019 d\u00fczeni, 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llar\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan itibaren \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik ve teknolojik y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonras\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019i k\u00fcresel hegemonyas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rmesi, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkileri gerdi. S\u00fcrecin sonunda ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 patlak verdi. Esasen ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, makroekonomik dengesizliklerin siyasi alandaki yans\u0131mas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span>

<\/p>

Tamamen t\u00fcketim ekonomisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi sonucunda sanayisini yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kapt\u0131ran, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7luluk oranlar\u0131 tavan yapan ABD'de sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131flayan kesimlerin tepkileri ve devletin ulusal g\u00fcvenlik refleksleri, siyaset\u00e7ileri korumac\u0131 politikalara y\u00f6neltti. ABD, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerini art\u0131rsa da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olam\u0131yor. \u00c7in'e kar\u015f\u0131 verilen a\u00e7\u0131k daral\u0131rken ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere verilen a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/span>

<\/p>

ABD art\u0131k \u00c7in, Almanya ve Japonya gibi \u00fclkelerin cari fazlalar\u0131n\u0131 absorbe eden ekonomi olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek istemiyor. Ekonomisinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve dinamik oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde bu rol\u00fc \u00fcstlenebiliyordu; ancak bug\u00fcn ayn\u0131 kapasiteye sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle mevcut yap\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirme aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin dolar cinsinden finansal varl\u0131klara bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131ndan da b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle memnun de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolar de\u011fer kazand\u0131k\u00e7a Amerikan sanayisinin ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmak, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak daha da zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Ne var ki k\u00fcresel belirsizlikler o denli y\u00fcksek ki dolar, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ve talep g\u00f6rmeye devam ediyor.<\/span>

<\/p>

Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ve hatta Avrupa, ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 finanse edebilmek i\u00e7in daha fazla k\u00fcresel likiditeye talip. Ancak bu \u00fclkelerin finansal sistemleri yeterince derin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, dolara olan talep bir \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/span>

<\/p>

Bu denklemde \u00c7in de baz\u0131 \u015feylerin de\u011fi\u015fmesi gerekti\u011finin fark\u0131nda. Pekin y\u00f6netimi, k\u00fcreselle\u015fme gerilerken tamamen ihracata dayal\u0131 bir ekonomi modeliyle ekonomik ilerlemesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle son 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak \u00c7in'de orta s\u0131n\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcse de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru, i\u00e7 talepten h\u00e2l\u00e2 yeterince beslenemiyor.<\/span>

<\/p>

K\u00fcresel dengesizliklerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ciddi bir koordinasyonu gerektirdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortada. \u00dclkelerin d\u00f6viz kuru m\u00fcdahaleleri, g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri ve \u00e7e\u015fitli yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ba\u015fvurarak tek ba\u015flar\u0131na \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretmeleri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ancak d\u00fcnya, ne yaz\u0131k ki bug\u00fcn ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan bu koordinasyonu sa\u011flayabilmekten olduk\u00e7a uza\u011f\u0131nda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista","tags":null,"meta_title":"K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fta","meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1779397200uUKoP0zMmp6ODAO.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_1200x675_XNsJTBH0yz.webp","user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":90224,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":90092,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fta","home_title":"K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fta","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

K\u00fcresel ekonomi son y\u0131llarda salg\u0131n ve sava\u015flar gibi d\u0131\u015f \u015foklarla sars\u0131ld\u0131. Enflasyon y\u00fckselirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 geriledi. Ancak k\u00fcresel ekonomideki olumsuz seyri yaln\u0131zca d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara ba\u011flamak do\u011fru olmaz; ekonominin i\u00e7 dinamikleri de i\u015fleri zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinin ard\u0131ndan uzun s\u00fcre istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde gerileyen k\u00fcresel dengesizlikler, son d\u00f6nemde bir kez daha y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti.<\/span>

<\/p>

K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler, sistematik olarak baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fcksek cari fazla vermesinin do\u011furdu\u011fu riskli ortam olarak tan\u0131mlanabilir. Bu \u00fclkelerin (\u00f6zellikle ABD ve \u00c7in) k\u00fcresel ekonomideki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ve cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131ndaki kompozisyonun kemikle\u015fmesi, sorunu olu\u015fturan temel unsurlard\u0131r. ABD, uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r ihracat\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde ithalat yap\u0131yor. \u0130hracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelini 40 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir benimseyen \u00c7in ise net ihracat\u00e7\u0131 bir \u00fclkedir. \u00d6yle ki \u00c7in'in net ihracat\u0131 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

1980\u2019lerden 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llara kadar ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda her iki taraf\u0131 da tatmin eden bir ekonomik ili\u015fki a\u011f\u0131 bulunuyordu. \u00c7in \u00fcretim yap\u0131yor, ABD ise t\u00fcketim odakl\u0131 bir ekonomik yap\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. \u00c7in, ihracat fazlalar\u0131 sayesinde biriktirdi\u011fi tasarruflar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yordu. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00c7in, ABD hazine tahvillerinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 konumuna y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki bu ekonomik ili\u015fki bi\u00e7imi \u2018\u00c7inmerika\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/span>

<\/p>

Ancak b\u00f6ylesine \u00e7arp\u0131k bir ekonomik ili\u015fkinin uzun vadede s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi. 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinin tetikleyicilerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u2018\u00c7inmerika\u2019 d\u00fczeni, 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llar\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan itibaren \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik ve teknolojik y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonras\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019i k\u00fcresel hegemonyas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rmesi, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkileri gerdi. S\u00fcrecin sonunda ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 patlak verdi. Esasen ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, makroekonomik dengesizliklerin siyasi alandaki yans\u0131mas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span>

<\/p>

Tamamen t\u00fcketim ekonomisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi sonucunda sanayisini yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kapt\u0131ran, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7luluk oranlar\u0131 tavan yapan ABD'de sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131flayan kesimlerin tepkileri ve devletin ulusal g\u00fcvenlik refleksleri, siyaset\u00e7ileri korumac\u0131 politikalara y\u00f6neltti. ABD, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerini art\u0131rsa da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olam\u0131yor. \u00c7in'e kar\u015f\u0131 verilen a\u00e7\u0131k daral\u0131rken ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere verilen a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/span>

<\/p>

ABD art\u0131k \u00c7in, Almanya ve Japonya gibi \u00fclkelerin cari fazlalar\u0131n\u0131 absorbe eden ekonomi olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek istemiyor. Ekonomisinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve dinamik oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde bu rol\u00fc \u00fcstlenebiliyordu; ancak bug\u00fcn ayn\u0131 kapasiteye sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle mevcut yap\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirme aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin dolar cinsinden finansal varl\u0131klara bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131ndan da b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle memnun de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolar de\u011fer kazand\u0131k\u00e7a Amerikan sanayisinin ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmak, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak daha da zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Ne var ki k\u00fcresel belirsizlikler o denli y\u00fcksek ki dolar, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ve talep g\u00f6rmeye devam ediyor.<\/span>

<\/p>

Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ve hatta Avrupa, ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 finanse edebilmek i\u00e7in daha fazla k\u00fcresel likiditeye talip. Ancak bu \u00fclkelerin finansal sistemleri yeterince derin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, dolara olan talep bir \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/span>

<\/p>

Bu denklemde \u00c7in de baz\u0131 \u015feylerin de\u011fi\u015fmesi gerekti\u011finin fark\u0131nda. Pekin y\u00f6netimi, k\u00fcreselle\u015fme gerilerken tamamen ihracata dayal\u0131 bir ekonomi modeliyle ekonomik ilerlemesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle son 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak \u00c7in'de orta s\u0131n\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcse de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru, i\u00e7 talepten h\u00e2l\u00e2 yeterince beslenemiyor.<\/span>

<\/p>

K\u00fcresel dengesizliklerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ciddi bir koordinasyonu gerektirdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortada. \u00dclkelerin d\u00f6viz kuru m\u00fcdahaleleri, g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri ve \u00e7e\u015fitli yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ba\u015fvurarak tek ba\u015flar\u0131na \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretmeleri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ancak d\u00fcnya, ne yaz\u0131k ki bug\u00fcn ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan bu koordinasyonu sa\u011flayabilmekten olduk\u00e7a uza\u011f\u0131nda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1779397200uUKoP0zMmp6ODAO.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1779397200uUKoP0zMmp6ODAO.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/638x552\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_638x552_ZBEQxAjMnX.webp","cropped_310x208":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/310x208\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_310x208_8mAhU5EMFA.webp","cropped_416x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x247\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_416x247_z4sC4WfTf6.webp","cropped_197x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/197x247\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_197x247_k6xJ1go0EA.webp","cropped_416x600":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x600\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_416x600_oxK1PsU4TA.webp","cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_1200x675_XNsJTBH0yz.webp","tags":null,"meta_title":"K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fta","meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/358x214\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_358x214_ZLa2jR9R8X.webp","cropped_842x474":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/842x474\/kuresel-dengesizlikler-yeniden-tirmanista_842x474_VmxajPlTNT.webp"}]}}