{"status":true,"post":{"id":18454,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:13:24","created_at":"2018-05-13T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:13:24.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":18454,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6n\u00fcndeki riskler nas\u0131l geli\u015fiyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018\u2019e ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelleniyor. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), 2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini bekliyor. 2018\u2019de geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ise y\u00fczde 4.9 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n da \u00fczerinde bekleniyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki olumlu geli\u015fmeler, b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusundaki iyimserli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde de y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ile ticaretindeki bu iyimser beklentiler ve geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 risk ise olas\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, jeopolitik riskler ve ABD\u2019de daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olarak kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki \u00f6ncelik giderek \u0130ran \u00f6zelindeki jeopolitik risklere do\u011fru kay\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

1 - T\u0130CARET SAVA\u015eI END\u0130\u015eELER\u0130 AZALIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Martta ABD\u2019nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ithalatta ilave g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri uygulamas\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6nme riski olu\u015fturdu. Ancak nisan sonunda ABD ve \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ikili ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u015flayarak s\u00fcreci yumu\u015fatmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda Pekin\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ilk tur m\u00fczakereler, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin devam etmesi \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131yla sona erdi. \u0130lk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde iki taraf\u0131n ticarete ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 konularda anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131\u011f\u0131, baz\u0131 konularda ise itilaf\u0131n devam etti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130lerleme sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve m\u00fczakerelerin devam edecek olmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olumlu. ABD, AB\u2019ye ise 1 ay daha ilave muafiyet s\u00fcresi verdi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 muafiyet i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrmesi kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

2 - DOLAR FA\u0130Z\u0130NDEK\u0130 ARTI\u015e K\u00dcRESEL B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 ENGELLEYECEK SEV\u0130YEDE DE\u011e\u0130L <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli risk, dolar faizlerinin beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi frenlemesi. Dolar faizlerinde y\u00fckselme 2018\u2019in ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda daha kuvvetli hissedilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Ekonomide h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyona ili\u015fkin beklentiler nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan 2018\u2019de d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu beklenti \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde piyasadaki dolar faizleri de fiilen y\u00fckseliyor. \u00dc\u00e7 ay vadeli LIBOR faiz oranlar\u0131 d\u00f6rt ayda y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019den nisan ay\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. ABD, 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil faizleri nisan ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019\u0131 da a\u015ft\u0131, sonras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gev\u015fedi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda etkili oluyor. Dolar cinsi bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n maliyetleri de y\u00fckseliyor. Ancak bu geli\u015fmeler hen\u00fcz d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktan olduk\u00e7a uzak kal\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

3 - KUZEY KORE KONUSUNDA BEKLENMED\u0130K \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eME <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131nda yumu\u015fama ve ABD dolar faizlerindeki kontroll\u00fc ve kademeli art\u0131\u015f bu iki \u00f6nemli riskin etkisini azalt\u0131rken jeopolitik riskler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bunlardan ilki olan Kuzey Kore konusunda beklenmedik ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu konuda G\u00fcney Kore ile Kuzey Kore aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ve yar\u0131madan\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bir bar\u0131\u015f adas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi konusunda mutabakata var\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme. D\u00fcnya ekonomisini de tehdit eden Kuzey Kore\u2019nin n\u00fckleer silahlanmas\u0131 b\u00f6ylece kontroll\u00fc olarak sona erdirilecek. <\/span><\/p>

4 - ABD \u0130LE \u0130RAN GER\u0130L\u0130M\u0130 EN \u00d6NEML\u0130 R\u0130SK; PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDA B\u0130R SI\u00c7RAMA OLAB\u0130L\u0130R <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bir di\u011fer jeopolitik risk alan\u0131 olan ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkileri ise giderek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve \u00f6nemli riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD, \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma ile ilgili olarak di\u011fer Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerinden baz\u0131 iyile\u015ftirilmeler yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi ve 12 May\u0131s\u2019a kadar zaman verdi. Almanya, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa; ABD\u2019nin de\u011fi\u015fiklik taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131 ve \u0130ran ile en iyi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn mevcut anla\u015fma oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar. Fransa, ABD\u2019ye anla\u015fman\u0131n yeniden m\u00fczakere edilmesi \u00f6nerisini g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc, ancak hem ABD hem de \u0130ran bu \u00f6neriyi ret etti. 12 May\u0131s\u2019a kadar bir sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namazsa ABD anla\u015fmaya taraf olmaktan \u00e7ekilecek ve \u0130ran\u2019a yeniden yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulamaya ba\u015flayacak. <\/span>
Bu ad\u0131m Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeni riskler yaratacak. Ticari a\u00e7\u0131dan ise \u0130ran pazar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden kapanmas\u0131na ve sermaye hareketlerinde k\u0131s\u0131tlamalara yol a\u00e7abilecek. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da ABD-\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 bu jeopolitik risk nedeniyle art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde. 12 May\u0131s sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yeni bir s\u0131\u00e7rama daha olabilecek. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal de olsa ABD-\u0130ran gerginli\u011fi de yumu\u015fama s\u00fcrecine girerse se\u00e7ime giden T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel kaynakl\u0131 riskler en aza inmi\u015f olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-buyume-onundeki-riskler-nasil-gelisiyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6n\u00fcndeki riskler nas\u0131l geli\u015fiyor?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":90,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":18553,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":18454,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6n\u00fcndeki riskler nas\u0131l geli\u015fiyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018\u2019e ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelleniyor. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), 2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini bekliyor. 2018\u2019de geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ise y\u00fczde 4.9 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n da \u00fczerinde bekleniyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki olumlu geli\u015fmeler, b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusundaki iyimserli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde de y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ile ticaretindeki bu iyimser beklentiler ve geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 risk ise olas\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, jeopolitik riskler ve ABD\u2019de daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olarak kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki \u00f6ncelik giderek \u0130ran \u00f6zelindeki jeopolitik risklere do\u011fru kay\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

1 - T\u0130CARET SAVA\u015eI END\u0130\u015eELER\u0130 AZALIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Martta ABD\u2019nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ithalatta ilave g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri uygulamas\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6nme riski olu\u015fturdu. Ancak nisan sonunda ABD ve \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ikili ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u015flayarak s\u00fcreci yumu\u015fatmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda Pekin\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ilk tur m\u00fczakereler, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin devam etmesi \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131yla sona erdi. \u0130lk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde iki taraf\u0131n ticarete ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 konularda anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131\u011f\u0131, baz\u0131 konularda ise itilaf\u0131n devam etti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130lerleme sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve m\u00fczakerelerin devam edecek olmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olumlu. ABD, AB\u2019ye ise 1 ay daha ilave muafiyet s\u00fcresi verdi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 muafiyet i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrmesi kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

2 - DOLAR FA\u0130Z\u0130NDEK\u0130 ARTI\u015e K\u00dcRESEL B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 ENGELLEYECEK SEV\u0130YEDE DE\u011e\u0130L <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli risk, dolar faizlerinin beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi frenlemesi. Dolar faizlerinde y\u00fckselme 2018\u2019in ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda daha kuvvetli hissedilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Ekonomide h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyona ili\u015fkin beklentiler nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan 2018\u2019de d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu beklenti \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde piyasadaki dolar faizleri de fiilen y\u00fckseliyor. \u00dc\u00e7 ay vadeli LIBOR faiz oranlar\u0131 d\u00f6rt ayda y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019den nisan ay\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. ABD, 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil faizleri nisan ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019\u0131 da a\u015ft\u0131, sonras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gev\u015fedi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda etkili oluyor. Dolar cinsi bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n maliyetleri de y\u00fckseliyor. Ancak bu geli\u015fmeler hen\u00fcz d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktan olduk\u00e7a uzak kal\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

3 - KUZEY KORE KONUSUNDA BEKLENMED\u0130K \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eME <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131nda yumu\u015fama ve ABD dolar faizlerindeki kontroll\u00fc ve kademeli art\u0131\u015f bu iki \u00f6nemli riskin etkisini azalt\u0131rken jeopolitik riskler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bunlardan ilki olan Kuzey Kore konusunda beklenmedik ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu konuda G\u00fcney Kore ile Kuzey Kore aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ve yar\u0131madan\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bir bar\u0131\u015f adas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi konusunda mutabakata var\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme. D\u00fcnya ekonomisini de tehdit eden Kuzey Kore\u2019nin n\u00fckleer silahlanmas\u0131 b\u00f6ylece kontroll\u00fc olarak sona erdirilecek. <\/span><\/p>

4 - ABD \u0130LE \u0130RAN GER\u0130L\u0130M\u0130 EN \u00d6NEML\u0130 R\u0130SK; PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDA B\u0130R SI\u00c7RAMA OLAB\u0130L\u0130R <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bir di\u011fer jeopolitik risk alan\u0131 olan ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkileri ise giderek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve \u00f6nemli riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD, \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma ile ilgili olarak di\u011fer Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerinden baz\u0131 iyile\u015ftirilmeler yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi ve 12 May\u0131s\u2019a kadar zaman verdi. Almanya, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa; ABD\u2019nin de\u011fi\u015fiklik taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131 ve \u0130ran ile en iyi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn mevcut anla\u015fma oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar. Fransa, ABD\u2019ye anla\u015fman\u0131n yeniden m\u00fczakere edilmesi \u00f6nerisini g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc, ancak hem ABD hem de \u0130ran bu \u00f6neriyi ret etti. 12 May\u0131s\u2019a kadar bir sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namazsa ABD anla\u015fmaya taraf olmaktan \u00e7ekilecek ve \u0130ran\u2019a yeniden yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulamaya ba\u015flayacak. <\/span>
Bu ad\u0131m Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeni riskler yaratacak. Ticari a\u00e7\u0131dan ise \u0130ran pazar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden kapanmas\u0131na ve sermaye hareketlerinde k\u0131s\u0131tlamalara yol a\u00e7abilecek. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da ABD-\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 bu jeopolitik risk nedeniyle art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde. 12 May\u0131s sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yeni bir s\u0131\u00e7rama daha olabilecek. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal de olsa ABD-\u0130ran gerginli\u011fi de yumu\u015fama s\u00fcrecine girerse se\u00e7ime giden T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel kaynakl\u0131 riskler en aza inmi\u015f olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-buyume-onundeki-riskler-nasil-gelisiyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6n\u00fcndeki riskler nas\u0131l geli\u015fiyor?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":90,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}