{"status":true,"post":{"id":22610,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:18:44","created_at":"2020-08-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:18:44.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":22610,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u2018K\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019lere inat, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

<\/strong><\/span>
Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi konusunda \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcm-serlik\u2019 yar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan bir grup ekonomistin t\u00fcm \u2018\u00e7\u0131rp\u0131n\u0131\u015f\u2019lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Albayrak\u2019n koordinasyonunda \u00e7ok kapsaml\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma y\u00fcr\u00fcten ve k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomisini ve ticareti derinlemesine etkiledi\u011finden bu yana para, maliye ve direkt kontrol politikas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc devreye alan ekonomi y\u00f6netimimizin etkili m\u00fccadelesi sonu\u00e7 veriyor. \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 (\u0130SO) T\u00fcrkiye \u0130malat Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi\u2019nin (PMI), Temmuz\u2019da 56.9 puana y\u00fckselerek, \u015eubat 2011\u2019den beri en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi yakalamas\u0131, Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018V\u2019 tipi toparlanma s\u00fcrecinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span>
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G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc S\u0130PAR\u0130\u015eLER <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
PMI anketine verilen cevaplar, T\u00fcrk imalat sanayine iki ayd\u0131r \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sipari\u015f geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen \u015firketlerinin k\u00fcresel tedarik ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 10 ile 15\u2019ini \u00c7in ve Asya\u2019dan \u00e7ekip, T\u00fcrkiye gibi imalat sanayinde kendini k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015f \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nlendirecekleri y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kararlar\u0131n\u0131 tam anlam\u0131yla teyit ediyor. Nitekim, Ticaret Bakan\u0131 Ruhsar Pekcan ve T\u0130M Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130smail G\u00fclle\u2019nin payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re, ihracatta bir ayda 15 milyar dolar\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde \u00f6nemini bir kat daha art\u0131r\u0131rken, 26 ihracat\u00e7\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 16\u2019s\u0131nda ve 77 \u00fclkeye yap\u0131lan ihracatta vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k rakamlara ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span>
<\/span>
STOKLAR GER\u0130LED\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
En \u00f6nemli detaylardan biri, imalat sanayin-deki firmalar\u0131n sipari\u015flerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in birikmi\u015f stoklar\u0131n\u0131 kullanm\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131. Bu sayede, nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131nda son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015f durumda. Stoklardaki gerileme, yeni \u00fcretim ihtiyac\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak istihdama da, sat\u0131n alma faaliyetlerine de h\u0131zla yans\u0131d\u0131. \u00dcretimdeki bu toparlanma, ister istemez girdi maliyetlerine de, lojistik ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerine de yans\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u2018V\u2019 tipi toparlanma, maliyet enflasyonuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, hem \u00fcretici hem de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksine ayl\u0131k olarak yans\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte, temmuz ay\u0131nda girdi maliyetlerinde g\u00f6receli bir gerileme de s\u00f6z konusu.<\/span>
<\/span>
Nitekim, T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi\u2019nde k\u00fcm\u00fclatif, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu da bu tabloyu teyit eder \u015fekilde, haziran ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 12.62 seviyesinden, temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.76 seviyesine geriledi. Kimi ekonomistlerin \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik\u2019 pompalamalar\u0131na inat, T\u00fcrkiye bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten yeni bir \u2018ba\u015far\u0131 hikayesi\u2019 ile \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
EKONOM\u0130YE \u2018G\u00dcVEN\u2019 HIZLA G\u00dc\u00c7LEN\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
\u0130lk <\/strong>kez 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ocak ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck hesap edilerek, her ay d\u00fczenli olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi, T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi ile birlikte T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00f6ncelikli sekt\u00f6rleri olarak, imalat sanayinin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan Reel Sekt\u00f6r G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni, Hizmet Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni, Perakende Ticaret Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni ve \u0130n\u015faat Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00dclke ekonomileri i\u00e7in mal ve hizmet \u00fcretimi ve arz\u0131 ile t\u00fcketimin nabz\u0131n\u0131 birlikte tutmak, ekonominin \u2018arz ve talep g\u00fcvenli\u011fi\u2019ni yak\u0131ndan takip etmek ad\u0131na kritik \u00f6nemde.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bug\u00fcne kadarki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck endeks de\u011ferlerini 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131nda 44.7 puan ve 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 may\u0131s ay\u0131nda da 49.8 puan ile g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler ve konut kredilerindeki f\u0131rsatlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak piyasadaki hareketlenme, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn g\u00fcven endeksini nisan ay\u0131ndan temmuz ay\u0131na neredeyse iki kat\u0131na, 87 puana ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
Ancak k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131yla Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131nda 51.3 puana kadar gerilemesine \u015fahit olsak da, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mal ve hizmet \u00fcretimini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devam ettirmeyi ba\u015fararak salg\u0131n dalgas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmesi sayesinde temmuz ay\u0131nda tekrar 82.2 puana getirmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f durumday\u0131z.<\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00fcresel ticarette g\u00f6zlenen t\u00fcm s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ihracat\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik tedbirleri ve i\u00e7 piyasadaki toparlanma, imalat sanayinin Reel Kesim G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni 100 puana yakla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span>
<\/span>
Perakende ticaretin de 100 puana yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve hizmetler ile in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toparlanma, sonbahara \u2018V\u2019 tipi toparlanman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seyir ile devam edece\u011fi bir tabloyla girece\u011fimizi teyit ediyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
A\u011fustos ve eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131nda, ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksinin 100 puana yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re iyi bir ciro ve k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k olarak yans\u0131mas\u0131 da, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz, istihdam\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kotumserlere-inat-guclu-toparlanma","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018K\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019lere inat, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1028,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":22709,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22610,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u2018K\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019lere inat, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

<\/strong><\/span>
Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi konusunda \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcm-serlik\u2019 yar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan bir grup ekonomistin t\u00fcm \u2018\u00e7\u0131rp\u0131n\u0131\u015f\u2019lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Albayrak\u2019n koordinasyonunda \u00e7ok kapsaml\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma y\u00fcr\u00fcten ve k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomisini ve ticareti derinlemesine etkiledi\u011finden bu yana para, maliye ve direkt kontrol politikas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc devreye alan ekonomi y\u00f6netimimizin etkili m\u00fccadelesi sonu\u00e7 veriyor. \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 (\u0130SO) T\u00fcrkiye \u0130malat Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi\u2019nin (PMI), Temmuz\u2019da 56.9 puana y\u00fckselerek, \u015eubat 2011\u2019den beri en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi yakalamas\u0131, Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018V\u2019 tipi toparlanma s\u00fcrecinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc S\u0130PAR\u0130\u015eLER <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
PMI anketine verilen cevaplar, T\u00fcrk imalat sanayine iki ayd\u0131r \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sipari\u015f geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen \u015firketlerinin k\u00fcresel tedarik ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 10 ile 15\u2019ini \u00c7in ve Asya\u2019dan \u00e7ekip, T\u00fcrkiye gibi imalat sanayinde kendini k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015f \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nlendirecekleri y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kararlar\u0131n\u0131 tam anlam\u0131yla teyit ediyor. Nitekim, Ticaret Bakan\u0131 Ruhsar Pekcan ve T\u0130M Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130smail G\u00fclle\u2019nin payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re, ihracatta bir ayda 15 milyar dolar\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde \u00f6nemini bir kat daha art\u0131r\u0131rken, 26 ihracat\u00e7\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 16\u2019s\u0131nda ve 77 \u00fclkeye yap\u0131lan ihracatta vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k rakamlara ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span>
<\/span>
STOKLAR GER\u0130LED\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
En \u00f6nemli detaylardan biri, imalat sanayin-deki firmalar\u0131n sipari\u015flerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in birikmi\u015f stoklar\u0131n\u0131 kullanm\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131. Bu sayede, nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131nda son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015f durumda. Stoklardaki gerileme, yeni \u00fcretim ihtiyac\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak istihdama da, sat\u0131n alma faaliyetlerine de h\u0131zla yans\u0131d\u0131. \u00dcretimdeki bu toparlanma, ister istemez girdi maliyetlerine de, lojistik ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerine de yans\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u2018V\u2019 tipi toparlanma, maliyet enflasyonuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, hem \u00fcretici hem de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksine ayl\u0131k olarak yans\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte, temmuz ay\u0131nda girdi maliyetlerinde g\u00f6receli bir gerileme de s\u00f6z konusu.<\/span>
<\/span>
Nitekim, T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi\u2019nde k\u00fcm\u00fclatif, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu da bu tabloyu teyit eder \u015fekilde, haziran ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 12.62 seviyesinden, temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.76 seviyesine geriledi. Kimi ekonomistlerin \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik\u2019 pompalamalar\u0131na inat, T\u00fcrkiye bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten yeni bir \u2018ba\u015far\u0131 hikayesi\u2019 ile \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
EKONOM\u0130YE \u2018G\u00dcVEN\u2019 HIZLA G\u00dc\u00c7LEN\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
\u0130lk <\/strong>kez 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ocak ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck hesap edilerek, her ay d\u00fczenli olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi, T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi ile birlikte T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00f6ncelikli sekt\u00f6rleri olarak, imalat sanayinin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan Reel Sekt\u00f6r G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni, Hizmet Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni, Perakende Ticaret Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni ve \u0130n\u015faat Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00dclke ekonomileri i\u00e7in mal ve hizmet \u00fcretimi ve arz\u0131 ile t\u00fcketimin nabz\u0131n\u0131 birlikte tutmak, ekonominin \u2018arz ve talep g\u00fcvenli\u011fi\u2019ni yak\u0131ndan takip etmek ad\u0131na kritik \u00f6nemde.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bug\u00fcne kadarki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck endeks de\u011ferlerini 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131nda 44.7 puan ve 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 may\u0131s ay\u0131nda da 49.8 puan ile g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler ve konut kredilerindeki f\u0131rsatlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak piyasadaki hareketlenme, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn g\u00fcven endeksini nisan ay\u0131ndan temmuz ay\u0131na neredeyse iki kat\u0131na, 87 puana ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
Ancak k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131yla Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131nda 51.3 puana kadar gerilemesine \u015fahit olsak da, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mal ve hizmet \u00fcretimini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devam ettirmeyi ba\u015fararak salg\u0131n dalgas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmesi sayesinde temmuz ay\u0131nda tekrar 82.2 puana getirmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f durumday\u0131z.<\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00fcresel ticarette g\u00f6zlenen t\u00fcm s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ihracat\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik tedbirleri ve i\u00e7 piyasadaki toparlanma, imalat sanayinin Reel Kesim G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni 100 puana yakla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span>
<\/span>
Perakende ticaretin de 100 puana yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve hizmetler ile in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toparlanma, sonbahara \u2018V\u2019 tipi toparlanman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seyir ile devam edece\u011fi bir tabloyla girece\u011fimizi teyit ediyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
A\u011fustos ve eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131nda, ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksinin 100 puana yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re iyi bir ciro ve k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k olarak yans\u0131mas\u0131 da, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz, istihdam\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kotumserlere-inat-guclu-toparlanma","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018K\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019lere inat, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1028,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}