{"status":true,"post":{"id":21545,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:09:14","created_at":"2020-02-20T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:09:14.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21545,"is_featured":0,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine etkileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Kovid-19 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan yeni nesil koronavir\u00fcs, can kay\u0131plar\u0131na neden olmaya devam ediyor. Vir\u00fcse dair bir\u00e7ok belirsizli\u011fin oldu\u011fu noktada ekonomik etkilere dair nokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmin yapmak zor. Ancak vir\u00fcs\u00fcn bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin 2020 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine negatif iz b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ekonomik yap\u0131ya dair baz\u0131 \u015feylerin sorgulanmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131 da a\u015fikar. \u00d6nceki yaz\u0131da vir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu sefer T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine olas\u0131 etkileri \u00fczerinde dural\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn Avrupa\u2019da en \u00e7ok Almanya, Fransa ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019yi etkilemesi bekleniyor. Vir\u00fcs tedirginli\u011fine ra\u011fmen AB Komisyonu, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne dair b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019de tuttu. Ancak bu tahminin sapma ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Avrupa\u2019daki olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 olarak bu \u00fclkelere ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ihracatta gerileme ya\u015fanma riski var. Bununla birlikte, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00c7in\u2019den tedarik edilmede s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fanacak baz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta teknolojili \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye ihracat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ING\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir analize g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye, \u00c7in ekonomisinin vir\u00fcse ba\u011fl\u0131 daralmas\u0131ndan pozitif y\u00f6nde etkilenebilecek nadir \u00fclkelerden biri olabilir. Bu beklentinin ana sebebi, \u00c7in ile \u00fcr\u00fcn gam\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde benze\u015fmesi. Ba\u015fta AB ve ABD olmak \u00fczere \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerin \u00c7in\u2019den iptal edebilecekleri olas\u0131 sipari\u015fleri hesaba katarak, \u00fcretimi h\u0131zla art\u0131rma esnekli\u011fimizin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu <\/span><span class=\"large\">\u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131nda gereken haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 yapmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in\u2019den ara mal\u0131 tedarikinde ya\u015fanacak olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n, i\u00e7eride bizim \u00fcretimimizi negatif etkileyebilece\u011fi ihtimalini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Ara mallar\u0131nda alternatif tedarik\u00e7ilere y\u00f6nelmek, T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerinin maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltebilir. \u00d6te yandan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi ise \u00fcretim maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in\u2019in 2001\u2019de DT\u00d6\u2019ye \u00fcye olmas\u0131ndan sonra \u00c7inli \u00fcr\u00fcnler oyuncak, tekstil, h\u0131rdavat, ayd\u0131nlatma cihazlar\u0131 ve elektronik gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta teknolojili \u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye piyasas\u0131n\u0131 domine etmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131, d\u00fcnyada oldu\u011fu gibi. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerdeki KOB\u0130\u2019ler, bilmedikleri sekt\u00f6rlere do\u011fru y\u00f6nelmek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015f ve zamanla finansal s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara girmi\u015flerdi. Bir anda b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil, ancak baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131nda yeniden \u00fcretici konuma ge\u00e7ebilir veya pazar pay\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131rabiliriz. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131yla bir\u00e7ok k\u00fcresel \u015firket, \u00c7in\u2019deki tedarik zincirlerini alternatif piyasalara kayd\u0131rman\u0131n olas\u0131 k\u00e2r-zarar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu vir\u00fcs, \u00e7okuluslu \u015firketlere \u2018d\u00fcnyan\u0131n fabrikas\u0131\u2019 olan \u00c7in\u2019e imalat sanayinde bu kadar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olman\u0131n dezavantajlar\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. \u00dcretim deneyimi ve be\u015feri sermayesi y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra lojistik avantajlar\u0131 bulunan \u00fclkeler, alternatif yat\u0131r\u0131m noktalar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Tabii ki bu tip yat\u0131r\u0131mlar bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6sterecek \u015feyler de\u011fil. Ancak \u00e7okuluslu \u015firketler yat\u0131r\u0131m noktalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlendirerek \u00fcretim ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m risklerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ajandalar\u0131na yazm\u0131\u015f durumda. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair negatif etkiler belirginle\u015firse, Fed ve ECB, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ilave parasal geni\u015fleme ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atabilirler. Bu durum, d\u00f6viz ve faiz cephelerinde T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeleri bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine rahatlatabilir. Faizlerin gerilemesi, i\u00e7 talebi biraz daha canland\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs, ekonomik anlamda bir\u00e7ok ters etkiye neden olma potansiyeline sahip. Hangi etkilerin a\u011f\u0131r basaca\u011f\u0131, hem \u00c7in\u2019in vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na alma s\u00fcresine hem de bizim gibi \u00fclkelerin de\u011fi\u015fen piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na verecekleri tepki kabiliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Umar\u0131m vir\u00fcs m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r ve bu dramla ilgili daha fazla ekonomik yorum yapmak zorunda kalmay\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirusun-turkiye-ekonomisi-uzerine-etkileri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine etkileri","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1104,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21644,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21545,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine etkileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Kovid-19 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan yeni nesil koronavir\u00fcs, can kay\u0131plar\u0131na neden olmaya devam ediyor. Vir\u00fcse dair bir\u00e7ok belirsizli\u011fin oldu\u011fu noktada ekonomik etkilere dair nokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmin yapmak zor. Ancak vir\u00fcs\u00fcn bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin 2020 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine negatif iz b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ekonomik yap\u0131ya dair baz\u0131 \u015feylerin sorgulanmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131 da a\u015fikar. \u00d6nceki yaz\u0131da vir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu sefer T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine olas\u0131 etkileri \u00fczerinde dural\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn Avrupa\u2019da en \u00e7ok Almanya, Fransa ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019yi etkilemesi bekleniyor. Vir\u00fcs tedirginli\u011fine ra\u011fmen AB Komisyonu, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne dair b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019de tuttu. Ancak bu tahminin sapma ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Avrupa\u2019daki olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 olarak bu \u00fclkelere ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ihracatta gerileme ya\u015fanma riski var. Bununla birlikte, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00c7in\u2019den tedarik edilmede s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fanacak baz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta teknolojili \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye ihracat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ING\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir analize g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye, \u00c7in ekonomisinin vir\u00fcse ba\u011fl\u0131 daralmas\u0131ndan pozitif y\u00f6nde etkilenebilecek nadir \u00fclkelerden biri olabilir. Bu beklentinin ana sebebi, \u00c7in ile \u00fcr\u00fcn gam\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde benze\u015fmesi. Ba\u015fta AB ve ABD olmak \u00fczere \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerin \u00c7in\u2019den iptal edebilecekleri olas\u0131 sipari\u015fleri hesaba katarak, \u00fcretimi h\u0131zla art\u0131rma esnekli\u011fimizin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu <\/span><span class=\"large\">\u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131nda gereken haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 yapmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in\u2019den ara mal\u0131 tedarikinde ya\u015fanacak olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n, i\u00e7eride bizim \u00fcretimimizi negatif etkileyebilece\u011fi ihtimalini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Ara mallar\u0131nda alternatif tedarik\u00e7ilere y\u00f6nelmek, T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerinin maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltebilir. \u00d6te yandan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi ise \u00fcretim maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in\u2019in 2001\u2019de DT\u00d6\u2019ye \u00fcye olmas\u0131ndan sonra \u00c7inli \u00fcr\u00fcnler oyuncak, tekstil, h\u0131rdavat, ayd\u0131nlatma cihazlar\u0131 ve elektronik gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta teknolojili \u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye piyasas\u0131n\u0131 domine etmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131, d\u00fcnyada oldu\u011fu gibi. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerdeki KOB\u0130\u2019ler, bilmedikleri sekt\u00f6rlere do\u011fru y\u00f6nelmek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015f ve zamanla finansal s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara girmi\u015flerdi. Bir anda b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil, ancak baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131nda yeniden \u00fcretici konuma ge\u00e7ebilir veya pazar pay\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131rabiliriz. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131yla bir\u00e7ok k\u00fcresel \u015firket, \u00c7in\u2019deki tedarik zincirlerini alternatif piyasalara kayd\u0131rman\u0131n olas\u0131 k\u00e2r-zarar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu vir\u00fcs, \u00e7okuluslu \u015firketlere \u2018d\u00fcnyan\u0131n fabrikas\u0131\u2019 olan \u00c7in\u2019e imalat sanayinde bu kadar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olman\u0131n dezavantajlar\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. \u00dcretim deneyimi ve be\u015feri sermayesi y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra lojistik avantajlar\u0131 bulunan \u00fclkeler, alternatif yat\u0131r\u0131m noktalar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Tabii ki bu tip yat\u0131r\u0131mlar bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6sterecek \u015feyler de\u011fil. Ancak \u00e7okuluslu \u015firketler yat\u0131r\u0131m noktalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlendirerek \u00fcretim ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m risklerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ajandalar\u0131na yazm\u0131\u015f durumda. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair negatif etkiler belirginle\u015firse, Fed ve ECB, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ilave parasal geni\u015fleme ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atabilirler. Bu durum, d\u00f6viz ve faiz cephelerinde T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeleri bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine rahatlatabilir. Faizlerin gerilemesi, i\u00e7 talebi biraz daha canland\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs, ekonomik anlamda bir\u00e7ok ters etkiye neden olma potansiyeline sahip. Hangi etkilerin a\u011f\u0131r basaca\u011f\u0131, hem \u00c7in\u2019in vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na alma s\u00fcresine hem de bizim gibi \u00fclkelerin de\u011fi\u015fen piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na verecekleri tepki kabiliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Umar\u0131m vir\u00fcs m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r ve bu dramla ilgili daha fazla ekonomik yorum yapmak zorunda kalmay\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirusun-turkiye-ekonomisi-uzerine-etkileri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fczerine etkileri","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1104,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}