{"status":true,"post":{"id":21660,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:10:47","created_at":"2020-03-19T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:10:47.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21660,"is_featured":0,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in 3 \u2018kritik\u2019 senaryo","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, 100 bini ge\u00e7en vaka say\u0131s\u0131 ve \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018karantina\u2019 kararlar\u0131yla \u2018korku salg\u0131n\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcten y\u00f6n\u00fcyle d\u00fcnya medyas\u0131n\u0131n man\u015fetlerindeki birincil konumunu korumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Latin Amerika\u2019daki ilk \u00f6l\u00fcml\u00fc vaka bir yana, ABD\u2019de ciddi pani\u011fe sebep olmu\u015f durumda. Kovid-19 bula\u015fanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 5 bin 883\u2019\u00fc buldu\u011fu ve 233 ki\u015finin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi \u0130talya\u2019da ise h\u00fck\u00fcmet, Lombardiya ve Kuzey \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n kritik \u00f6nemdeki \u015fehirlerine y\u00f6nelik \u2018giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u2019 k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

14 kent i\u00e7inde Venedik\u2019in oldu\u011funu da dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n bir \u015fok ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130ran\u2019da ise a\u011f\u0131r bir salg\u0131na yakalanm\u0131\u015f insan say\u0131s\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edilmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in ele\u015ftiriliyor. T\u00fcrkiye ise ilk g\u00fcnden itibaren i\u015fi ciddiye almas\u0131, gereken en sert tedbirleri almas\u0131 nedeniyle kendisini ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

1. HIZLI TOPARLANMA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinde 3 temel senaryo \u00fczerinde duruluyor. 1. senaryo \u2018h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma\u2019. Buna g\u00f6re, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz birinci \u00e7eyrekte Hubei d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in en ge\u00e7 nisan ortas\u0131 y\u00fczde 80 kapasiteyle ekonomik faaliyetlerine d\u00f6ner. Vir\u00fcs nisan ay\u0131nda Do\u011fu Asya ve Avrupa\u2019da kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte vir\u00fcs Ortado\u011fu\u2019da kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flar, k\u00fcresel talep normalle\u015fir. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn mevsimsel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kar. Hava trafi\u011fi ve turizm faaliyetleri h\u0131zlan\u0131r. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re salg\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomi ve ticarete etkisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine yans\u0131maz.<\/span><\/p>

2. K\u00dcRESEL YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2. senaryo ise \u2018k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama\u2019. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re, Hubei d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in, nisan ortas\u0131nda ancak y\u00fczde 50 ve biraz \u00fczeri kapasiteyle ekonomik faaliyetlerine d\u00f6ner. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim ve ihracatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Vir\u00fcs, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de Do\u011fu Asya, Ortado\u011fu ve Avrupa\u2019da yay\u0131lmaya devam eder ve her \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgede de karantinalar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu nedenle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmeye devam eder. Bu tablo, k\u00fcresel havac\u0131l\u0131k ve turizmde k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine sebep olur. Bu senaryo, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2020\u2019yi y\u00fczde 1.8-2.2 seviyesinde kapatmas\u0131na sebep olur ki, OECD\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e \u00e7ekti\u011fi 2020 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn de alt\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun anlam\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 1 trilyon dolar katma de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

3. K\u00dcRESEL RESESYON<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

3. ve en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo ise \u2018k\u00fcresel resesyon\u2019. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re, Hubei d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in nisan ortas\u0131 en iyi ko\u015fullarda \u00fcretim kapasitesinin ancak y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131na d\u00f6nebilir. Al\u0131nan tedbirlerle Hubei ancak ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonunda normale d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flar. Vir\u00fcs Do\u011fu Asya, Ortado\u011fu ve Avrupa\u2019da yay\u0131lmaya devam eder; her \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgede karantinalar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn, mevsimsel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kar ve d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131lmaya devam eder. Bu durumda, d\u00fcnya genelindeki \u2018korku salg\u0131n\u0131\u2019 nedeniyle talep \u015foku t\u00fcm y\u0131l boyu devam eder. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya, 1918\/19 \u0130spanyol gribi vakas\u0131ndan bu yanaki en y\u00fcksek \u2018bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 s\u00fcrecini ya\u015far. K\u00fcresel resesyonun d\u00fcnya ekonomisine etkisi 2 ile 2.5 trilyon dolar kay\u0131p olur. Umudumuz, 1. ve 2. senaryo aras\u0131 bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olsun.<\/span><\/p>

\u2018TALEP \u015eOKU\u2019 VE \u0130KT\u0130SADIN ACZ\u0130YET\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisat alan\u0131, doktrin veya fraksiyon boyutunda iki ana gruba b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr: Arz yanl\u0131s\u0131 neoliberaller ve talep yanl\u0131s\u0131 keynesyenler. 1970\u2019lerde, 80\u2019lerde, 90\u2019larda ve 2008\u2019deki son k\u00fcresel finans krizinde \u2018arz yanl\u0131s\u0131 liberaller\u2019 ile \u2018talep yanl\u0131s\u0131 devlet\u00e7iler\u2019 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 dikkatle izledik. Bug\u00fcn D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn \u2018k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta salg\u0131n\u2019 olarak ilan etti\u011fi \u2018koronavir\u00fcs krizi\u2019nde de ayn\u0131 s\u00fcreci bir kez daha g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs krizinin sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018arz\u2019 ve sonras\u0131ndaki \u2018talep \u015foku\u2019nun k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta \u015firketlerin cirosunu, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklenti o kadar \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019 bir noktaya gelmi\u015f durumda ki, ABD borsalar\u0131ndaki a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plar\u0131 borsa seanslar\u0131na ara verilmesi dahi durduram\u0131yor. \u0130lk etapta devreye al\u0131nan y\u00fckl\u00fc faiz indirimleri ve \u2018helikopter metodu\u2019yla piyasalara \u2018havadan\u2019 para ya\u011fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fi\u2019 frenlememi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015fin ilginci, b\u00f6yle bir piyasa tablosu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, \u2018g\u00fcvenilir liman\u2019 konumunda olan alt\u0131n da sat\u0131\u015f yedi ve 1700 dolar seviyelerine do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde 1600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, kim \u2018talep \u015foku krizi\u2019ni atlat\u0131rsa, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten az yarayla hatta kazan\u00e7l\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirus-icin-3-kritik-senaryo","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in 3 \u2018kritik\u2019 senaryo","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":776,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21759,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21660,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in 3 \u2018kritik\u2019 senaryo","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, 100 bini ge\u00e7en vaka say\u0131s\u0131 ve \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018karantina\u2019 kararlar\u0131yla \u2018korku salg\u0131n\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcten y\u00f6n\u00fcyle d\u00fcnya medyas\u0131n\u0131n man\u015fetlerindeki birincil konumunu korumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Latin Amerika\u2019daki ilk \u00f6l\u00fcml\u00fc vaka bir yana, ABD\u2019de ciddi pani\u011fe sebep olmu\u015f durumda. Kovid-19 bula\u015fanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 5 bin 883\u2019\u00fc buldu\u011fu ve 233 ki\u015finin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi \u0130talya\u2019da ise h\u00fck\u00fcmet, Lombardiya ve Kuzey \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n kritik \u00f6nemdeki \u015fehirlerine y\u00f6nelik \u2018giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u2019 k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

14 kent i\u00e7inde Venedik\u2019in oldu\u011funu da dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n bir \u015fok ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130ran\u2019da ise a\u011f\u0131r bir salg\u0131na yakalanm\u0131\u015f insan say\u0131s\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edilmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in ele\u015ftiriliyor. T\u00fcrkiye ise ilk g\u00fcnden itibaren i\u015fi ciddiye almas\u0131, gereken en sert tedbirleri almas\u0131 nedeniyle kendisini ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

1. HIZLI TOPARLANMA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinde 3 temel senaryo \u00fczerinde duruluyor. 1. senaryo \u2018h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma\u2019. Buna g\u00f6re, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz birinci \u00e7eyrekte Hubei d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in en ge\u00e7 nisan ortas\u0131 y\u00fczde 80 kapasiteyle ekonomik faaliyetlerine d\u00f6ner. Vir\u00fcs nisan ay\u0131nda Do\u011fu Asya ve Avrupa\u2019da kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte vir\u00fcs Ortado\u011fu\u2019da kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flar, k\u00fcresel talep normalle\u015fir. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn mevsimsel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kar. Hava trafi\u011fi ve turizm faaliyetleri h\u0131zlan\u0131r. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re salg\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomi ve ticarete etkisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine yans\u0131maz.<\/span><\/p>

2. K\u00dcRESEL YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2. senaryo ise \u2018k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama\u2019. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re, Hubei d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in, nisan ortas\u0131nda ancak y\u00fczde 50 ve biraz \u00fczeri kapasiteyle ekonomik faaliyetlerine d\u00f6ner. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim ve ihracatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Vir\u00fcs, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de Do\u011fu Asya, Ortado\u011fu ve Avrupa\u2019da yay\u0131lmaya devam eder ve her \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgede de karantinalar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu nedenle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmeye devam eder. Bu tablo, k\u00fcresel havac\u0131l\u0131k ve turizmde k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine sebep olur. Bu senaryo, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2020\u2019yi y\u00fczde 1.8-2.2 seviyesinde kapatmas\u0131na sebep olur ki, OECD\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e \u00e7ekti\u011fi 2020 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn de alt\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun anlam\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 1 trilyon dolar katma de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

3. K\u00dcRESEL RESESYON<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

3. ve en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo ise \u2018k\u00fcresel resesyon\u2019. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re, Hubei d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in nisan ortas\u0131 en iyi ko\u015fullarda \u00fcretim kapasitesinin ancak y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131na d\u00f6nebilir. Al\u0131nan tedbirlerle Hubei ancak ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonunda normale d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flar. Vir\u00fcs Do\u011fu Asya, Ortado\u011fu ve Avrupa\u2019da yay\u0131lmaya devam eder; her \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgede karantinalar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn, mevsimsel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kar ve d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131lmaya devam eder. Bu durumda, d\u00fcnya genelindeki \u2018korku salg\u0131n\u0131\u2019 nedeniyle talep \u015foku t\u00fcm y\u0131l boyu devam eder. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya, 1918\/19 \u0130spanyol gribi vakas\u0131ndan bu yanaki en y\u00fcksek \u2018bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 s\u00fcrecini ya\u015far. K\u00fcresel resesyonun d\u00fcnya ekonomisine etkisi 2 ile 2.5 trilyon dolar kay\u0131p olur. Umudumuz, 1. ve 2. senaryo aras\u0131 bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olsun.<\/span><\/p>

\u2018TALEP \u015eOKU\u2019 VE \u0130KT\u0130SADIN ACZ\u0130YET\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisat alan\u0131, doktrin veya fraksiyon boyutunda iki ana gruba b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr: Arz yanl\u0131s\u0131 neoliberaller ve talep yanl\u0131s\u0131 keynesyenler. 1970\u2019lerde, 80\u2019lerde, 90\u2019larda ve 2008\u2019deki son k\u00fcresel finans krizinde \u2018arz yanl\u0131s\u0131 liberaller\u2019 ile \u2018talep yanl\u0131s\u0131 devlet\u00e7iler\u2019 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 dikkatle izledik. Bug\u00fcn D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn \u2018k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta salg\u0131n\u2019 olarak ilan etti\u011fi \u2018koronavir\u00fcs krizi\u2019nde de ayn\u0131 s\u00fcreci bir kez daha g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs krizinin sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018arz\u2019 ve sonras\u0131ndaki \u2018talep \u015foku\u2019nun k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta \u015firketlerin cirosunu, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklenti o kadar \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmser\u2019 bir noktaya gelmi\u015f durumda ki, ABD borsalar\u0131ndaki a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plar\u0131 borsa seanslar\u0131na ara verilmesi dahi durduram\u0131yor. \u0130lk etapta devreye al\u0131nan y\u00fckl\u00fc faiz indirimleri ve \u2018helikopter metodu\u2019yla piyasalara \u2018havadan\u2019 para ya\u011fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fi\u2019 frenlememi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015fin ilginci, b\u00f6yle bir piyasa tablosu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, \u2018g\u00fcvenilir liman\u2019 konumunda olan alt\u0131n da sat\u0131\u015f yedi ve 1700 dolar seviyelerine do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde 1600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, kim \u2018talep \u015foku krizi\u2019ni atlat\u0131rsa, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten az yarayla hatta kazan\u00e7l\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirus-icin-3-kritik-senaryo","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in 3 \u2018kritik\u2019 senaryo","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":776,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}