{"status":true,"post":{"id":21548,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:09:15","created_at":"2020-02-20T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:09:15.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21548,"is_featured":0,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar ve riskler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

K\u00fcresel ithalat\u0131n y\u00fczde 13.5\u2019ini, d\u00fcnya genelinde imalat sanayinin k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirine ba\u011fl\u0131 ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ortalama y\u00fczde 20\u2019sini kar\u015f\u0131layan \u00c7in\u2019in yeni y\u0131l tatili sonras\u0131 \u00fcretime y\u00fczde 40\/50 kapasite ile d\u00f6nmesi iki temel sorunu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Birincisi, otomotiv ve elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki ara mamul, i\u015flenmi\u015f hammadde ve komponent ihtiyac\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma. Bu durum, sadece \u00c7in de\u011fil, d\u00fcnya genelinde bir \u00fcretim s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u015fu anki tahminlerle 0.3 daralmay\u0131 beraberinde getirebilir. \u0130kinci \u00f6nemli sorun ise \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fcretimi ve hane halk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7in \u00fcretim ve ihracat yapan \u00fclke ve \u015firketlerin duyduklar\u0131 endi\u015fe. Do\u011fal ta\u015f, yani mermer end\u00fcstrisi, madencilik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 fabrika ile faaliyet g\u00f6steren ve \u00fclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck otomotiv \u00fcreticisi olan Jaguar Land Rover, \u00fcretimi devam ettirebilmek i\u00e7in iki haftal\u0131k stoklar\u0131 oldu\u011funa, \u00c7in\u2019de hayat\u0131n durma noktas\u0131na gelmesi nedeniyle herhangi bir sat\u0131\u015f yapamad\u0131klar\u0131na ve bu kayb\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019den ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere kayd\u0131rarak telafi edip edemeyeceklerinin de ciddi belirsizlik i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f otomotiv kurulu\u015fu Tata Motors da benzer duruma dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/span><\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019de sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizli\u011fin esas negatif sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ise mart ay\u0131nda hissedilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor.<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde, \u00c7in\u2019in otomotiv ve elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sa\u011flayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedariki telafi etmek \u00fczere, \u015firketler G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise \u2018f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar\u2019\u0131n fiyat art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat kollad\u0131klar\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6yle ilgin\u00e7 bir tablo ya\u015fan\u0131yor ki, \u00c7in\u2019in sebep oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimdeki aksama petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilerken, yedek par\u00e7a bazl\u0131 end\u00fcstriler ile tar\u0131m ve g\u0131da end\u00fcstrisi i\u00e7in ise k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini tetikledi. Bu nedenle, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizli\u011fin k\u00fcresel bir enflasyonu tetikleyip tetiklemedi\u011fini de zamanla g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. <\/span><\/p>

IMF, t\u00fcm bu tablonun d\u00fcnya ekonomisini tarihi ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in hane halk\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 277 milyar dolarl\u0131k turizm harcamas\u0131yla Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel turizm harcamas\u0131n\u0131 katlayarak ge\u00e7ti. D\u00fcnya turizm end\u00fcstrisindeki her 1 dolarl\u0131k turizm gelirinin 18 senti \u00c7inliler sayesinde kazan\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn sebep oldu\u011fu negatif etkiye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel turizm end\u00fcstrisi gelirlerinde 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk bir daralma bekleniyor. 2019\u2019da 50 milyonu a\u015fan turist a\u011f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrkiye, sadece 426 bin \u00c7inli turist ziyaretine konu oldu. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrkiye, turizm geliri en az etkilenen \u00fclke olacak. Salg\u0131n hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu karantina ve tedbirler nedeniyle \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminin ayl\u0131k bazda 40 milyon ton azalmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte firmalar, \u00c7in\u2019den sipari\u015f ettikleri mal gemiye y\u00fcklendi mi, gemi limandan ayr\u0131labildi mi, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bilgi alam\u0131yor. Hastal\u0131k yaz baz\u0131 g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015fecek olsa da, d\u00fcnya ekonomisine etkileri t\u00fcm 2020\u2019yi kaplayacak.<\/span>
\u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 Stratejisi, 2015-2025 aras\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019i d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc imalat sanayi \u00fcreticilerinden biri yapmay\u0131, 2026-2035 aras\u0131 imalat sanayi \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerin s\u00fcper liginde \u00fcst basamaklara t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 2035-2046 d\u00f6neminde ise d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 imalat sanayi \u00fcreticisi olmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor. \u00c7in, ihracat\u0131n\u0131n katma de\u011ferini art\u0131rmak ad\u0131na, 2015 ile 2046 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde, enerji ekipmanlar\u0131, robotlar, yeni nesil ileti\u015fim teknolojileri, havac\u0131l\u0131k ve uzay teknolojileri ve ara\u00e7lar\u0131, denizcilik ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek teknolojili gemiler, yeni nesil demiryolu teknolojileri, yeni nesil otomobil ve enerji tasarruflu ara\u00e7 teknolojileri, yeni nesil tar\u0131m teknolojileri ve biofarma ile y\u00fcksek teknolojiye dayal\u0131 t\u0131p ekipmanlar\u0131 konusunda k\u00fcresel bir akt\u00f6r olmaya soyunmu\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n \u2018ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 kurgusu da do\u011frudan \u00c7in\u2019in \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 Stratejisi\u2019ni hedef al\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019nin ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 14\u2019l\u00fck bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. <\/span>
\u00d6nde gelen AB \u00fclkelerinin \u00e7o\u011funun ithalat\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde. Bu oran Hollanda\u2019da y\u00fczde 30\u2019a yak\u0131n. Ayn\u0131 oran Japonya i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 25.6. D\u00fcnya imalat sanayinde \u00c7in mallar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 20. G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n imalat sanayinde \u00c7in mal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 40; ABD, Rusya, Meksika ve Brezilya\u2019da y\u00fczde 25 ile 30 aras\u0131. Daha 20 sene \u00f6nce, \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00fcresel otomotiv end\u00fcstrisindeki \u00fcretim pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019u zor bulurken, bug\u00fcn ayn\u0131 oran y\u00fczde 29.8. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcm bu rakamlar, koronavir\u00fcs tehdidine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda hastal\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik \u2018rivayetler\u2019 daha da yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rsa k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta bir \u2018tedarik krizi\u2019 ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirus-firsatcilar-ve-riskler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar ve riskler","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":715,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21647,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21548,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar ve riskler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

K\u00fcresel ithalat\u0131n y\u00fczde 13.5\u2019ini, d\u00fcnya genelinde imalat sanayinin k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirine ba\u011fl\u0131 ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ortalama y\u00fczde 20\u2019sini kar\u015f\u0131layan \u00c7in\u2019in yeni y\u0131l tatili sonras\u0131 \u00fcretime y\u00fczde 40\/50 kapasite ile d\u00f6nmesi iki temel sorunu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Birincisi, otomotiv ve elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki ara mamul, i\u015flenmi\u015f hammadde ve komponent ihtiyac\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma. Bu durum, sadece \u00c7in de\u011fil, d\u00fcnya genelinde bir \u00fcretim s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u015fu anki tahminlerle 0.3 daralmay\u0131 beraberinde getirebilir. \u0130kinci \u00f6nemli sorun ise \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fcretimi ve hane halk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7in \u00fcretim ve ihracat yapan \u00fclke ve \u015firketlerin duyduklar\u0131 endi\u015fe. Do\u011fal ta\u015f, yani mermer end\u00fcstrisi, madencilik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 fabrika ile faaliyet g\u00f6steren ve \u00fclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck otomotiv \u00fcreticisi olan Jaguar Land Rover, \u00fcretimi devam ettirebilmek i\u00e7in iki haftal\u0131k stoklar\u0131 oldu\u011funa, \u00c7in\u2019de hayat\u0131n durma noktas\u0131na gelmesi nedeniyle herhangi bir sat\u0131\u015f yapamad\u0131klar\u0131na ve bu kayb\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019den ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere kayd\u0131rarak telafi edip edemeyeceklerinin de ciddi belirsizlik i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f otomotiv kurulu\u015fu Tata Motors da benzer duruma dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/span><\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019de sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizli\u011fin esas negatif sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ise mart ay\u0131nda hissedilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor.<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde, \u00c7in\u2019in otomotiv ve elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sa\u011flayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedariki telafi etmek \u00fczere, \u015firketler G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise \u2018f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar\u2019\u0131n fiyat art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat kollad\u0131klar\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6yle ilgin\u00e7 bir tablo ya\u015fan\u0131yor ki, \u00c7in\u2019in sebep oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimdeki aksama petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilerken, yedek par\u00e7a bazl\u0131 end\u00fcstriler ile tar\u0131m ve g\u0131da end\u00fcstrisi i\u00e7in ise k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini tetikledi. Bu nedenle, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizli\u011fin k\u00fcresel bir enflasyonu tetikleyip tetiklemedi\u011fini de zamanla g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. <\/span><\/p>

IMF, t\u00fcm bu tablonun d\u00fcnya ekonomisini tarihi ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in hane halk\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 277 milyar dolarl\u0131k turizm harcamas\u0131yla Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel turizm harcamas\u0131n\u0131 katlayarak ge\u00e7ti. D\u00fcnya turizm end\u00fcstrisindeki her 1 dolarl\u0131k turizm gelirinin 18 senti \u00c7inliler sayesinde kazan\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn sebep oldu\u011fu negatif etkiye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel turizm end\u00fcstrisi gelirlerinde 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk bir daralma bekleniyor. 2019\u2019da 50 milyonu a\u015fan turist a\u011f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrkiye, sadece 426 bin \u00c7inli turist ziyaretine konu oldu. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrkiye, turizm geliri en az etkilenen \u00fclke olacak. Salg\u0131n hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu karantina ve tedbirler nedeniyle \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminin ayl\u0131k bazda 40 milyon ton azalmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte firmalar, \u00c7in\u2019den sipari\u015f ettikleri mal gemiye y\u00fcklendi mi, gemi limandan ayr\u0131labildi mi, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bilgi alam\u0131yor. Hastal\u0131k yaz baz\u0131 g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015fecek olsa da, d\u00fcnya ekonomisine etkileri t\u00fcm 2020\u2019yi kaplayacak.<\/span>
\u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 Stratejisi, 2015-2025 aras\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019i d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc imalat sanayi \u00fcreticilerinden biri yapmay\u0131, 2026-2035 aras\u0131 imalat sanayi \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerin s\u00fcper liginde \u00fcst basamaklara t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 2035-2046 d\u00f6neminde ise d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 imalat sanayi \u00fcreticisi olmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor. \u00c7in, ihracat\u0131n\u0131n katma de\u011ferini art\u0131rmak ad\u0131na, 2015 ile 2046 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde, enerji ekipmanlar\u0131, robotlar, yeni nesil ileti\u015fim teknolojileri, havac\u0131l\u0131k ve uzay teknolojileri ve ara\u00e7lar\u0131, denizcilik ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek teknolojili gemiler, yeni nesil demiryolu teknolojileri, yeni nesil otomobil ve enerji tasarruflu ara\u00e7 teknolojileri, yeni nesil tar\u0131m teknolojileri ve biofarma ile y\u00fcksek teknolojiye dayal\u0131 t\u0131p ekipmanlar\u0131 konusunda k\u00fcresel bir akt\u00f6r olmaya soyunmu\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n \u2018ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 kurgusu da do\u011frudan \u00c7in\u2019in \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 Stratejisi\u2019ni hedef al\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019nin ithalat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 14\u2019l\u00fck bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. <\/span>
\u00d6nde gelen AB \u00fclkelerinin \u00e7o\u011funun ithalat\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde. Bu oran Hollanda\u2019da y\u00fczde 30\u2019a yak\u0131n. Ayn\u0131 oran Japonya i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 25.6. D\u00fcnya imalat sanayinde \u00c7in mallar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 20. G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n imalat sanayinde \u00c7in mal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 40; ABD, Rusya, Meksika ve Brezilya\u2019da y\u00fczde 25 ile 30 aras\u0131. Daha 20 sene \u00f6nce, \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00fcresel otomotiv end\u00fcstrisindeki \u00fcretim pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019u zor bulurken, bug\u00fcn ayn\u0131 oran y\u00fczde 29.8. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcm bu rakamlar, koronavir\u00fcs tehdidine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda hastal\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik \u2018rivayetler\u2019 daha da yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rsa k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta bir \u2018tedarik krizi\u2019 ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirus-firsatcilar-ve-riskler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar ve riskler","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":715,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}