{"status":true,"post":{"id":21472,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:08:24","created_at":"2020-02-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:08:24.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21472,"is_featured":0,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, ekonomiyi nas\u0131l etkileyebilir?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya, \u00c7in\u2019de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan koronavir\u00fcs (Wuhan Vir\u00fcs\u00fc) ile ilgili geli\u015fmeleri endi\u015feli g\u00f6zlerle takip ediyor. \u0130nsani dram\u0131n oldu\u011fu yerde ekonomik meseleler ikinci, hatta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc plandad\u0131r. Ancak, durumun ciddiyetini ve \u00c7in ekonomisinin d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in anlam\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek vir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiye olas\u0131 etkilerini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2003\u2019te yine \u00c7in\u2019i etkisi alt\u0131na alan SARS vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede 0.1 puanl\u0131k (33 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda) bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden oldu\u011fu hesaplan\u0131yor. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fc etkileyen SARS vir\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in ekonomisinin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte en az 2 puan kadar h\u0131z kaybetmesine neden oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nan vir\u00fcsten sonra ertelenen talep ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar hemen devreye girdi<\/span><span class=\"large\">ve Pekin h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin verdi\u011fi te\u015fviklerle ekonomi yeniden ray\u0131na oturarak y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Peki, \u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisi bu koronavir\u00fcs\u00fc de bu kadar kolay atlatabilir mi? Columbia \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden Shang-Jin Wei, nisan ay\u0131nda koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 senaryosunda vir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine etkisinin y\u0131l genelinde 0.1 puan ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Wei\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u00c7in ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde kaybetti\u011fi ivmelenmenin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer \u00e7eyreklerde geri kazanabilir. Bu senaryoda vir\u00fcs\u00fcn ABD ve AB ekonomilerine negatif etkilerinin ise 0.02 puan olaca\u011f\u0131 hesap ediliyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00c7in ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonomide daha a\u011f\u0131r tahribatlara neden olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek fakt\u00f6rler de var. Birincisi, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lma h\u0131z\u0131 SARS\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fe benziyor. Salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lma h\u0131z\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ekonomiye etkisinin artmas\u0131na neden olabilecek di\u011fer bir fakt\u00f6r, \u00c7in\u2019in artan entegrasyonu. \u00c7in, 2003 ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bug\u00fcn 5 kat daha fazla d\u0131\u015f ticaret yap\u0131yor ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya 6 kat daha fazla turist g\u00f6nderiyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in ekonomisi ge\u00e7mi\u015fe oranla daha fazla i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonuna sahip. 2003\u2019te daralan i\u00e7 talebini d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya daha fazla mal satarak telafi etmi\u015fti. \u00c7in\u2019de ihracat 2003\u2019te y\u00fczde 35 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in bug\u00fcn b\u00f6yle bir ge\u00e7i\u015fi yapmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, 2003 yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek, risklerin<\/span><span class=\"large\">ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir y\u0131ld\u0131. Beklentilerin zaten tats\u0131z, risklerin ise y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu 2020\u2019de vir\u00fcs bir de \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019 etkisine neden oldu.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\">Biraz daha pozitif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmemize neden olacak fakt\u00f6rler de var. \u00d6ncelikle \u00c7in\u2019in ge\u00e7mi\u015fe k\u0131yasla vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha \u015feffaf<\/span><span class=\"large\">ve hassas bir tutum sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tutum gerekli politika reaksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya genelinde g\u00f6sterilebilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. SARS\u2019\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 17 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re sa\u011fl\u0131k teknolojilerinde kaydedilen ilerlemeler de en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik hastal\u0131kl\u0131 ki\u015filerin te\u015fhisi ve karantina alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli kolayl\u0131klar sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n birinci faz\u0131 ve Brexit\u2019te i\u015flerin biraz daha belirginle\u015fmesi 2020\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in umut \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmu\u015ftu. Koronavir\u00fcs bu iyimserli\u011fi ald\u0131 g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs nedeniyle k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin negatif revize edilmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Umar\u0131z salg\u0131n bir an \u00f6nce kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r ve daha fazla insan hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmez. Salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n daha kolay ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve yay\u0131lmas\u0131na neden olan iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini daha fazla ciddiye almam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirus-ekonomiyi-nasil-etkileyebilir","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, ekonomiyi nas\u0131l etkileyebilir?","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1086,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21571,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21472,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, ekonomiyi nas\u0131l etkileyebilir?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya, \u00c7in\u2019de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan koronavir\u00fcs (Wuhan Vir\u00fcs\u00fc) ile ilgili geli\u015fmeleri endi\u015feli g\u00f6zlerle takip ediyor. \u0130nsani dram\u0131n oldu\u011fu yerde ekonomik meseleler ikinci, hatta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc plandad\u0131r. Ancak, durumun ciddiyetini ve \u00c7in ekonomisinin d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in anlam\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek vir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiye olas\u0131 etkilerini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2003\u2019te yine \u00c7in\u2019i etkisi alt\u0131na alan SARS vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede 0.1 puanl\u0131k (33 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda) bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden oldu\u011fu hesaplan\u0131yor. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fc etkileyen SARS vir\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in ekonomisinin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte en az 2 puan kadar h\u0131z kaybetmesine neden oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nan vir\u00fcsten sonra ertelenen talep ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar hemen devreye girdi<\/span><span class=\"large\">ve Pekin h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin verdi\u011fi te\u015fviklerle ekonomi yeniden ray\u0131na oturarak y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Peki, \u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisi bu koronavir\u00fcs\u00fc de bu kadar kolay atlatabilir mi? Columbia \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden Shang-Jin Wei, nisan ay\u0131nda koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 senaryosunda vir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine etkisinin y\u0131l genelinde 0.1 puan ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Wei\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u00c7in ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde kaybetti\u011fi ivmelenmenin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer \u00e7eyreklerde geri kazanabilir. Bu senaryoda vir\u00fcs\u00fcn ABD ve AB ekonomilerine negatif etkilerinin ise 0.02 puan olaca\u011f\u0131 hesap ediliyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00c7in ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonomide daha a\u011f\u0131r tahribatlara neden olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek fakt\u00f6rler de var. Birincisi, koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lma h\u0131z\u0131 SARS\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fe benziyor. Salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lma h\u0131z\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ekonomiye etkisinin artmas\u0131na neden olabilecek di\u011fer bir fakt\u00f6r, \u00c7in\u2019in artan entegrasyonu. \u00c7in, 2003 ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bug\u00fcn 5 kat daha fazla d\u0131\u015f ticaret yap\u0131yor ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya 6 kat daha fazla turist g\u00f6nderiyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in ekonomisi ge\u00e7mi\u015fe oranla daha fazla i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonuna sahip. 2003\u2019te daralan i\u00e7 talebini d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya daha fazla mal satarak telafi etmi\u015fti. \u00c7in\u2019de ihracat 2003\u2019te y\u00fczde 35 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in bug\u00fcn b\u00f6yle bir ge\u00e7i\u015fi yapmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, 2003 yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek, risklerin<\/span><span class=\"large\">ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir y\u0131ld\u0131. Beklentilerin zaten tats\u0131z, risklerin ise y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu 2020\u2019de vir\u00fcs bir de \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019 etkisine neden oldu.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\">Biraz daha pozitif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmemize neden olacak fakt\u00f6rler de var. \u00d6ncelikle \u00c7in\u2019in ge\u00e7mi\u015fe k\u0131yasla vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha \u015feffaf<\/span><span class=\"large\">ve hassas bir tutum sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tutum gerekli politika reaksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya genelinde g\u00f6sterilebilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. SARS\u2019\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 17 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re sa\u011fl\u0131k teknolojilerinde kaydedilen ilerlemeler de en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik hastal\u0131kl\u0131 ki\u015filerin te\u015fhisi ve karantina alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli kolayl\u0131klar sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n birinci faz\u0131 ve Brexit\u2019te i\u015flerin biraz daha belirginle\u015fmesi 2020\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in umut \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmu\u015ftu. Koronavir\u00fcs bu iyimserli\u011fi ald\u0131 g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Vir\u00fcs nedeniyle k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin negatif revize edilmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Umar\u0131z salg\u0131n bir an \u00f6nce kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r ve daha fazla insan hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmez. Salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n daha kolay ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve yay\u0131lmas\u0131na neden olan iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini daha fazla ciddiye almam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"koronavirus-ekonomiyi-nasil-etkileyebilir","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Koronavir\u00fcs, ekonomiyi nas\u0131l etkileyebilir?","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1086,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}