{"status":true,"post":{"id":21828,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:12:53","created_at":"2020-04-16T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:12:53.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21828,"is_featured":0,"title":"Korona \u00f6ncesinde makro veriler ne sinyaller veriyordu?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Hikmet Baydar<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

Son zamanlarda \u015fubat ay\u0131 performans\u0131m\u0131za y\u00f6nelik veriler a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu veriler korona \u00f6ncesi \u00fclkemizin performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc koronavir\u00fcs etkisi ge\u00e7tikten sonra bu performanstan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyece\u011fiz. O zaman bol likidite ortam\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle getiri elde etmek zorunda kalan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, verimli ve y\u00fcksek performansl\u0131 piyasalara do\u011fru fonlar\u0131n\u0131 aktarmaya ba\u015flayacaklar. <\/span><\/p>

Son zamanlarda koronavir\u00fcs da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 nedeniyle zor durumda kalan \u0130talya, \u0130spanya ve \u0130ngiltere gibi \u00fclkelere yap\u0131lan yard\u0131mlar bug\u00fcne kadar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi k\u00f6t\u00fcleyerek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n gelmesini engelleyenlerin i\u015flerini bozdu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ilgili \u00fclkeler kamuoyuna T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin deste\u011fi ile ilgili olumlu mesajlar verdiler. K\u0131saca art\u0131k hi\u00e7bir \u015fey eskisi gibi olmayacak. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden \u015fubat ay\u0131 verileri korona kriz sonras\u0131nda nerede kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k diyece\u011fimiz verilerdir. Bundan sonra bozulmalar olacakt\u0131r. Bu beklenmeli. Ancak h\u0131zl\u0131 al\u0131nan radikal kararlarla ekonomik krizin derinle\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli \u00e7abalar sarfediliyor. Bizler daha olumsuz verilere haz\u0131r olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu veriler soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kma yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, kapanan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n ve durdurulmak zorunda kalan faaliyetlerin (turizm, ula\u015ft\u0131rma vb.) bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olacak. \u015eu unutulmamal\u0131: Daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olmas\u0131n diye al\u0131nan tedbirlerin yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u00d6nce sa\u011fl\u0131k diyoruz. Sonra da her \u015feyin hay\u0131rl\u0131s\u0131\u2026<\/span><\/p>

\u015eUBAT KARNEM\u0130Z<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi \u015eubat 2020 karnemize bir bakal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

Miktar baz\u0131nda \u015eubat 2020 d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde, ihracat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4.1, ithalat\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 15.3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum i\u00e7 piyasada canlanman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fcretim yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130hracat birim de\u011feri y\u00fczde 1.4, ithalat birim de\u011feri y\u00fczde 6.1 azalm\u0131\u015f. B\u00f6ylece ithalat\u0131n birim de\u011ferindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fiyatlamada daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetlerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat vermeyi imkan dahiline sokmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f. <\/span><\/p>

Sanayi \u00fcretim endeksine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u015eubat 2020\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretim endeksinin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ayn\u0131 aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7.5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eubat ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f endeksi ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 10.6 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek olduk\u00e7a iyi bir performansa i\u015faret etmi\u015f. \u0130\u00e7 piyasada bekledi\u011fimiz canlanman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Sanayi, in\u015faat, ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda ciro endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u015eubat 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 22.2 gibi olduk\u00e7a iyi bir oranda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f. Bu de\u011ferler, enflasyon ve faiz artmadan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015fsizlik verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Ocak 2020\u2019de i\u015fsizlik 306 bin ki\u015fi azalarak y\u00fczde 0.9 azal\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 13.8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

NEREDE KALMI\u015eTIK?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcm bu veriler korona salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00fclkemizde verilerin son derece iyi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eimdi salg\u0131n sonras\u0131nda yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tek \u015fey \u201cnerede kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u201d demektir. Al\u0131nan tedbirler ise sekt\u00f6rlerin dayanma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rma, insan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k riski almadan s\u00fcreci atlatmas\u0131na destek olma amac\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. Merak etmeyin, bu salg\u0131n da di\u011ferleri gibi bitecek. Bizler, nerede kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k diyecek duru\u015fu sergileyelim, yeter.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz; tedbirleri ekibiyle birlikte alanlar krizi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirenler olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"korona-oncesinde-makro-veriler-ne-sinyaller-veriyordu","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Korona \u00f6ncesinde makro veriler ne sinyaller veriyordu?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1040,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21927,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21828,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Korona \u00f6ncesinde makro veriler ne sinyaller veriyordu?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Hikmet Baydar<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

Son zamanlarda \u015fubat ay\u0131 performans\u0131m\u0131za y\u00f6nelik veriler a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu veriler korona \u00f6ncesi \u00fclkemizin performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc koronavir\u00fcs etkisi ge\u00e7tikten sonra bu performanstan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyece\u011fiz. O zaman bol likidite ortam\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle getiri elde etmek zorunda kalan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, verimli ve y\u00fcksek performansl\u0131 piyasalara do\u011fru fonlar\u0131n\u0131 aktarmaya ba\u015flayacaklar. <\/span><\/p>

Son zamanlarda koronavir\u00fcs da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 nedeniyle zor durumda kalan \u0130talya, \u0130spanya ve \u0130ngiltere gibi \u00fclkelere yap\u0131lan yard\u0131mlar bug\u00fcne kadar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi k\u00f6t\u00fcleyerek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n gelmesini engelleyenlerin i\u015flerini bozdu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ilgili \u00fclkeler kamuoyuna T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin deste\u011fi ile ilgili olumlu mesajlar verdiler. K\u0131saca art\u0131k hi\u00e7bir \u015fey eskisi gibi olmayacak. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden \u015fubat ay\u0131 verileri korona kriz sonras\u0131nda nerede kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k diyece\u011fimiz verilerdir. Bundan sonra bozulmalar olacakt\u0131r. Bu beklenmeli. Ancak h\u0131zl\u0131 al\u0131nan radikal kararlarla ekonomik krizin derinle\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli \u00e7abalar sarfediliyor. Bizler daha olumsuz verilere haz\u0131r olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu veriler soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kma yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, kapanan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n ve durdurulmak zorunda kalan faaliyetlerin (turizm, ula\u015ft\u0131rma vb.) bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olacak. \u015eu unutulmamal\u0131: Daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olmas\u0131n diye al\u0131nan tedbirlerin yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u00d6nce sa\u011fl\u0131k diyoruz. Sonra da her \u015feyin hay\u0131rl\u0131s\u0131\u2026<\/span><\/p>

\u015eUBAT KARNEM\u0130Z<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi \u015eubat 2020 karnemize bir bakal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

Miktar baz\u0131nda \u015eubat 2020 d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde, ihracat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4.1, ithalat\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 15.3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum i\u00e7 piyasada canlanman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fcretim yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130hracat birim de\u011feri y\u00fczde 1.4, ithalat birim de\u011feri y\u00fczde 6.1 azalm\u0131\u015f. B\u00f6ylece ithalat\u0131n birim de\u011ferindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fiyatlamada daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetlerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat vermeyi imkan dahiline sokmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f. <\/span><\/p>

Sanayi \u00fcretim endeksine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u015eubat 2020\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretim endeksinin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ayn\u0131 aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7.5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eubat ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f endeksi ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 10.6 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek olduk\u00e7a iyi bir performansa i\u015faret etmi\u015f. \u0130\u00e7 piyasada bekledi\u011fimiz canlanman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Sanayi, in\u015faat, ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda ciro endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u015eubat 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 22.2 gibi olduk\u00e7a iyi bir oranda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f. Bu de\u011ferler, enflasyon ve faiz artmadan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015fsizlik verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Ocak 2020\u2019de i\u015fsizlik 306 bin ki\u015fi azalarak y\u00fczde 0.9 azal\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 13.8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

NEREDE KALMI\u015eTIK?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcm bu veriler korona salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00fclkemizde verilerin son derece iyi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eimdi salg\u0131n sonras\u0131nda yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tek \u015fey \u201cnerede kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u201d demektir. Al\u0131nan tedbirler ise sekt\u00f6rlerin dayanma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rma, insan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k riski almadan s\u00fcreci atlatmas\u0131na destek olma amac\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. Merak etmeyin, bu salg\u0131n da di\u011ferleri gibi bitecek. Bizler, nerede kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k diyecek duru\u015fu sergileyelim, yeter.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz; tedbirleri ekibiyle birlikte alanlar krizi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirenler olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"korona-oncesinde-makro-veriler-ne-sinyaller-veriyordu","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Korona \u00f6ncesinde makro veriler ne sinyaller veriyordu?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1040,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}