{"status":true,"post":{"id":21882,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:13:31","created_at":"2020-04-23T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:13:31.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21882,"is_featured":0,"title":"Korona d\u00f6nemi \u00c7in ekonomisinde durum","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Fatih Oktay
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi, 2020 birinci \u00e7eyrek verileri beklendi\u011fi gibi pek parlak gelmedi. Verilere g\u00f6re bu \u00e7eyrekte ekonomi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.8 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re ise k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme y\u00fczde 9.8 oldu. <\/span><\/p>

\u00c7eyreklik veriler, \u00c7in ekonomisinin vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan ciddi bir darbe ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyorsa da, ayl\u0131k veriler bu darbenin etkisinden h\u0131zla kurtulmakta oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu verilere g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc katma de\u011feri ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 25.9 dolay\u0131nda azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, Mart ay\u0131nda ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re azal\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 1.1 oldu. Yani sanayi \u00fcretimi h\u0131zla toparlan\u0131yor, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki seviyesini yakalam\u0131\u015f bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>

Vakitli ve etkili tedbirlerin al\u0131nmas\u0131yla \u00fclkede koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 iki ay gibi bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde sonland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00dclkede ya\u015fam, bununla beraber de \u00fcretim potansiyeli normale d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Ancak yukar\u0131daki verilerden korona d\u00f6nemi \u00f6ncesi seviyesine d\u00f6nmekte oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7mesi elbette ki talebe ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k verilere g\u00f6re \u00fclke ihracat\u0131 ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 17.2 azalm\u0131\u015fken, mart ay\u0131nda azalma y\u00fczde 6.6 d\u00fczeyine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Burada bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa da do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi oynak olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerinde ayl\u0131k de\u011ferlerden sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kartmakta tedbirli olmak gerekir. \u00c7in\u2019in ana pazarlar\u0131 olan ABD ve AB \u00fclkelerinde vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ekonomide en k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00fcnler daha g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011finden \u00fclke ihracat\u0131nda olumsuz geli\u015fmelerin sonunun gelmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130HRACATIN PAYI Y\u00dcKSEK DE\u011e\u0130L<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ancak daha \u00f6nce de belirtmi\u015f oldu\u011fum gibi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde ihracat\u0131n rol\u00fc san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fil. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u00fclke ihracat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke GSYH\u2019sine oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019ler d\u00fczeyinde. Bu ihracat\u0131n da d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7 gibi bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yerli katma de\u011fer olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, \u00fclke \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 15 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc d\u0131\u015f talebe, kalan y\u00fczde 85\u2019i de i\u00e7 talebe y\u00f6nelik.<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k verilerle i\u00e7 talebe bakarsak, mart ay\u0131nda perakende t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 16 dolay\u0131nda azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde azalma y\u00fczde 20 dolay\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan normale bir gidi\u015f varsa da hen\u00fcz ula\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Benzer durum sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Ancak \u00fclkede ya\u015fam normale ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla normale d\u00f6nmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir engel bulunmuyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00dclke y\u00f6netimi de \u00fclkede \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketimin normale ge\u00e7i\u015fini desteklemek i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli tedbirler al\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede merkez bankas\u0131 bankalara sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131n maliyetlerinde ve banka kredileri i\u00e7in referans olu\u015fturan g\u00f6sterge faizlerde azalt\u0131ma gidiyor, mevduat munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 indiriyor, \u00f6zellikle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler i\u00e7in sosyal g\u00fcvenlik i\u015fveren katk\u0131 pay\u0131 ve vergiler alan\u0131nda kolayl\u0131klar getiriyor, yerel y\u00f6netimlerin altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek \u00fczere \u00e7\u0131kartacaklar\u0131 tahvillerle ilgili s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00dcZDE 6 B\u00dcY\u00dcME HEDEF\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ancak \u00fclke y\u00f6netimi ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 2008 krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi dev bir harcama paketi uygulamaya koyup \u00e7ok gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 izlemeyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019in bu politikalar\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2008 krizinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ama ard\u0131nda da \u015firketler ve yerel y\u00f6netimlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bor\u00e7luluk, konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde balon olu\u015fumu, belli sekt\u00f6rlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kapasite sorunlar b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span>
Son krizdeki boyutlarda olmasa da canland\u0131rma tedbirleriyle ihracattaki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin telafi edilmesi ve \u00fclke ekonomisinin salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesine yak\u0131n d\u00fczeylerde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 olanaks\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ekonomi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte tam normale d\u00f6ner ve salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi \u00fcretim d\u00fczeyini yakalarsa ve bundan sonra y\u00fczde 6 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 tutturursa bu, 2020 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>

Hat\u0131rlan\u0131rsa \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nin 2010-2020 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00fclke ekonomisini ikiye katlama hedefi oldu\u011fu, bunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gerekti\u011finden s\u00f6z etmi\u015ftik. Bu ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc ko\u015fullarda o hedeften vazge\u00e7ilmesi beklenebilir. Ama s\u00fcrprizler de olabilir; bu hedefte \u0131srarc\u0131 olunabilir; geli\u015fmi\u015f bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerinde \u00fcretim sekteye u\u011fram\u0131\u015fken \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretimin devam ediyor olmas\u0131, ihracatta beklenen olumsuz geli\u015fmelerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesine yol a\u00e7abilir ve hedef de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"korona-donemi-cin-ekonomisinde-durum","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Korona d\u00f6nemi \u00c7in ekonomisinde durum","meta_description":"Fatih Oktay","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1063,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21981,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21882,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Korona d\u00f6nemi \u00c7in ekonomisinde durum","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Fatih Oktay
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi, 2020 birinci \u00e7eyrek verileri beklendi\u011fi gibi pek parlak gelmedi. Verilere g\u00f6re bu \u00e7eyrekte ekonomi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.8 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re ise k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme y\u00fczde 9.8 oldu. <\/span><\/p>

\u00c7eyreklik veriler, \u00c7in ekonomisinin vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan ciddi bir darbe ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyorsa da, ayl\u0131k veriler bu darbenin etkisinden h\u0131zla kurtulmakta oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu verilere g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc katma de\u011feri ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 25.9 dolay\u0131nda azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, Mart ay\u0131nda ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re azal\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 1.1 oldu. Yani sanayi \u00fcretimi h\u0131zla toparlan\u0131yor, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki seviyesini yakalam\u0131\u015f bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>

Vakitli ve etkili tedbirlerin al\u0131nmas\u0131yla \u00fclkede koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 iki ay gibi bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde sonland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00dclkede ya\u015fam, bununla beraber de \u00fcretim potansiyeli normale d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Ancak yukar\u0131daki verilerden korona d\u00f6nemi \u00f6ncesi seviyesine d\u00f6nmekte oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7mesi elbette ki talebe ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k verilere g\u00f6re \u00fclke ihracat\u0131 ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 17.2 azalm\u0131\u015fken, mart ay\u0131nda azalma y\u00fczde 6.6 d\u00fczeyine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Burada bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa da do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi oynak olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerinde ayl\u0131k de\u011ferlerden sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kartmakta tedbirli olmak gerekir. \u00c7in\u2019in ana pazarlar\u0131 olan ABD ve AB \u00fclkelerinde vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ekonomide en k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00fcnler daha g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011finden \u00fclke ihracat\u0131nda olumsuz geli\u015fmelerin sonunun gelmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130HRACATIN PAYI Y\u00dcKSEK DE\u011e\u0130L<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ancak daha \u00f6nce de belirtmi\u015f oldu\u011fum gibi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde ihracat\u0131n rol\u00fc san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fil. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u00fclke ihracat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke GSYH\u2019sine oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019ler d\u00fczeyinde. Bu ihracat\u0131n da d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7 gibi bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yerli katma de\u011fer olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, \u00fclke \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 15 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc d\u0131\u015f talebe, kalan y\u00fczde 85\u2019i de i\u00e7 talebe y\u00f6nelik.<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k verilerle i\u00e7 talebe bakarsak, mart ay\u0131nda perakende t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 16 dolay\u0131nda azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde azalma y\u00fczde 20 dolay\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan normale bir gidi\u015f varsa da hen\u00fcz ula\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Benzer durum sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Ancak \u00fclkede ya\u015fam normale ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla normale d\u00f6nmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir engel bulunmuyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00dclke y\u00f6netimi de \u00fclkede \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketimin normale ge\u00e7i\u015fini desteklemek i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli tedbirler al\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede merkez bankas\u0131 bankalara sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131n maliyetlerinde ve banka kredileri i\u00e7in referans olu\u015fturan g\u00f6sterge faizlerde azalt\u0131ma gidiyor, mevduat munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 indiriyor, \u00f6zellikle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler i\u00e7in sosyal g\u00fcvenlik i\u015fveren katk\u0131 pay\u0131 ve vergiler alan\u0131nda kolayl\u0131klar getiriyor, yerel y\u00f6netimlerin altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek \u00fczere \u00e7\u0131kartacaklar\u0131 tahvillerle ilgili s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00dcZDE 6 B\u00dcY\u00dcME HEDEF\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ancak \u00fclke y\u00f6netimi ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 2008 krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi dev bir harcama paketi uygulamaya koyup \u00e7ok gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 izlemeyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019in bu politikalar\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2008 krizinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ama ard\u0131nda da \u015firketler ve yerel y\u00f6netimlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bor\u00e7luluk, konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde balon olu\u015fumu, belli sekt\u00f6rlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kapasite sorunlar b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span>
Son krizdeki boyutlarda olmasa da canland\u0131rma tedbirleriyle ihracattaki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin telafi edilmesi ve \u00fclke ekonomisinin salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesine yak\u0131n d\u00fczeylerde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 olanaks\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ekonomi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte tam normale d\u00f6ner ve salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi \u00fcretim d\u00fczeyini yakalarsa ve bundan sonra y\u00fczde 6 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 tutturursa bu, 2020 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>

Hat\u0131rlan\u0131rsa \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nin 2010-2020 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00fclke ekonomisini ikiye katlama hedefi oldu\u011fu, bunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gerekti\u011finden s\u00f6z etmi\u015ftik. Bu ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc ko\u015fullarda o hedeften vazge\u00e7ilmesi beklenebilir. Ama s\u00fcrprizler de olabilir; bu hedefte \u0131srarc\u0131 olunabilir; geli\u015fmi\u015f bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerinde \u00fcretim sekteye u\u011fram\u0131\u015fken \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretimin devam ediyor olmas\u0131, ihracatta beklenen olumsuz geli\u015fmelerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesine yol a\u00e7abilir ve hedef de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"korona-donemi-cin-ekonomisinde-durum","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Korona d\u00f6nemi \u00c7in ekonomisinde durum","meta_description":"Fatih Oktay","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1063,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}