{"status":true,"post":{"id":54418,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-08-19 08:05:00","created_at":"2024-08-19T05:05:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-08-19T05:05:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":54418,"is_featured":0,"title":"Jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma bir numaral\u0131 tehdit","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar uzunca bir s\u00fcredir d\u00fcnya ekonomisini ve k\u00fcresel ticareti etkileyen ve etkileyecek k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel risklerin analizini yap\u0131yor. 2020\u2019ye kadar k\u00fcresel analizlerde bir numaral\u0131 risk veya tehdit k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, ikinci \u00f6nemli tehdit siber g\u00fcvenlik, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00f6nemli tehdit ise jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131kt\u0131. Olas\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 riski sekizinci, g\u00fcvenlikle ilgili yeni tehditler ise dokuzuncu s\u0131radayd\u0131. Ve k\u00fcresel tehdit s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda alt s\u0131ralarda olan iki ba\u015fl\u0131k ard\u0131 ard\u0131na ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Kovid-19 ile Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131, iki \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019 olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve k\u00fcresel ticareti derinden sarst\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00dcRESEL R\u0130SK BA\u015eLIKLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bug\u00fcn, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ate\u015fe verebilecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan jeopolitik gerginlik ve Asya-Pasifik\u2019te artan tansiyon, Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine eklenince, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in bir numaral\u0131 tehdit art\u0131k \u2018jeopolitik gerginlik\u2019 oldu. K\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik gerginliklerin derinle\u015fmesi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alan\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrine y\u00f6nelik de bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle, k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda da k\u00fcresel k\u0131ymetli maden, metal fiyatlar\u0131nda da hatta k\u00fcresel tar\u0131m, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda da dalgalanma aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015fleyebilir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7maza d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren nokta da tam buras\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik tehdit ve belirsizliklerin \u00fcretim, ticaret, ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00fczerindeki negatif etkisini bertaraf etmek \u00fczere para politikas\u0131nda yeni bir rotaya m\u0131 y\u00f6nelmeleri gerekiyor; yoksa yeniden h\u0131zlanabilecek k\u00fcresel enflasyon k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fc nedeniyle ihtiyatl\u0131 m\u0131 olmalar\u0131 gerekiyor? Keynesyenden neoliberale, elbette g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler farkl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Neticede, k\u00fcresel risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik analizlerde, k\u00fcresel enflasyon tehdidi ile k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma tehdidi, mevcut jeopolitik ortamda, adeta at ba\u015f\u0131 gidiyor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 10 g\u00fcn k\u00fcresel piyasalarda g\u00f6zlenen ciddi dalgalanma, di\u011fer risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geride bile kal\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KORUMACILIK ARAYI\u015eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ancak, bug\u00fcnden 2030\u2019a esas b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit, \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n sars\u0131lan sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u2018jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma\u2019. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomileri aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvensizlik sorunu, sadece k\u00fcresel meselelere birlikte \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretme umutlar\u0131n\u0131 un ufak etmiyor; daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan bir sorun olarak \u2018korumac\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n hortlamas\u0131 ise k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit. Bu nedenle, \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fcvenin yeniden tesisi, \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve k\u00fcresel ticaretin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in en elzem konu. Aksi durumda, 2030\u2019da k\u00fcresel ekonomik tablonun hayli \u2018karanl\u0131k\u2019 olmas\u0131 riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma daha da derinle\u015firse, 2030\u2019da d\u00fcnya ekonomisi k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 girdab\u0131na, k\u00fcresel iklim krizine nas\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler \u00fcretecek? Neredeyse imkans\u0131z. \u00d6nde gelen ekonomilerin h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin dahi nas\u0131l reg\u00fcle edilece\u011fini kestiremedikleri yapay zeka alan\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerle de derinle\u015fen \u2018siber g\u00fcvenlik\u2019 tehdidine veya k\u00fcresel g\u00f6\u00e7 ve ya\u015flanman\u0131n k\u00fcresel n\u00fcfus ve istihdam \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkilerine s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretebilmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek bile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"jeopolitik-parcalanma-bir-numarali-tehdit","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724014800CMidl7Zhg9otwbs.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":771,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":54544,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":54418,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma bir numaral\u0131 tehdit","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar uzunca bir s\u00fcredir d\u00fcnya ekonomisini ve k\u00fcresel ticareti etkileyen ve etkileyecek k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel risklerin analizini yap\u0131yor. 2020\u2019ye kadar k\u00fcresel analizlerde bir numaral\u0131 risk veya tehdit k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, ikinci \u00f6nemli tehdit siber g\u00fcvenlik, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00f6nemli tehdit ise jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131kt\u0131. Olas\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 riski sekizinci, g\u00fcvenlikle ilgili yeni tehditler ise dokuzuncu s\u0131radayd\u0131. Ve k\u00fcresel tehdit s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda alt s\u0131ralarda olan iki ba\u015fl\u0131k ard\u0131 ard\u0131na ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Kovid-19 ile Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131, iki \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019 olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve k\u00fcresel ticareti derinden sarst\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00dcRESEL R\u0130SK BA\u015eLIKLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bug\u00fcn, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ate\u015fe verebilecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan jeopolitik gerginlik ve Asya-Pasifik\u2019te artan tansiyon, Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine eklenince, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in bir numaral\u0131 tehdit art\u0131k \u2018jeopolitik gerginlik\u2019 oldu. K\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik gerginliklerin derinle\u015fmesi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alan\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrine y\u00f6nelik de bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle, k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda da k\u00fcresel k\u0131ymetli maden, metal fiyatlar\u0131nda da hatta k\u00fcresel tar\u0131m, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda da dalgalanma aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015fleyebilir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7maza d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren nokta da tam buras\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik tehdit ve belirsizliklerin \u00fcretim, ticaret, ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00fczerindeki negatif etkisini bertaraf etmek \u00fczere para politikas\u0131nda yeni bir rotaya m\u0131 y\u00f6nelmeleri gerekiyor; yoksa yeniden h\u0131zlanabilecek k\u00fcresel enflasyon k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fc nedeniyle ihtiyatl\u0131 m\u0131 olmalar\u0131 gerekiyor? Keynesyenden neoliberale, elbette g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler farkl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Neticede, k\u00fcresel risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik analizlerde, k\u00fcresel enflasyon tehdidi ile k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma tehdidi, mevcut jeopolitik ortamda, adeta at ba\u015f\u0131 gidiyor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 10 g\u00fcn k\u00fcresel piyasalarda g\u00f6zlenen ciddi dalgalanma, di\u011fer risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geride bile kal\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KORUMACILIK ARAYI\u015eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ancak, bug\u00fcnden 2030\u2019a esas b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit, \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n sars\u0131lan sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u2018jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma\u2019. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomileri aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvensizlik sorunu, sadece k\u00fcresel meselelere birlikte \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretme umutlar\u0131n\u0131 un ufak etmiyor; daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan bir sorun olarak \u2018korumac\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n hortlamas\u0131 ise k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit. Bu nedenle, \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fcvenin yeniden tesisi, \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve k\u00fcresel ticaretin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in en elzem konu. Aksi durumda, 2030\u2019da k\u00fcresel ekonomik tablonun hayli \u2018karanl\u0131k\u2019 olmas\u0131 riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma daha da derinle\u015firse, 2030\u2019da d\u00fcnya ekonomisi k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 girdab\u0131na, k\u00fcresel iklim krizine nas\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler \u00fcretecek? Neredeyse imkans\u0131z. \u00d6nde gelen ekonomilerin h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin dahi nas\u0131l reg\u00fcle edilece\u011fini kestiremedikleri yapay zeka alan\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerle de derinle\u015fen \u2018siber g\u00fcvenlik\u2019 tehdidine veya k\u00fcresel g\u00f6\u00e7 ve ya\u015flanman\u0131n k\u00fcresel n\u00fcfus ve istihdam \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkilerine s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretebilmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek bile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"jeopolitik-parcalanma-bir-numarali-tehdit","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724014800CMidl7Zhg9otwbs.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724014800CMidl7Zhg9otwbs.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":771,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}