{"status":true,"post":{"id":12818,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:19:45","created_at":"2015-12-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:19:45.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12818,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130zledi\u011fi politika Rusya'y\u0131 2016'da zorlayabilir","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye'nin, ulusal egemenlik hakk\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 nedeniyle Rusya ile ya\u015fanmakta olan diplomatik gerginlik s\u00fcreci, kimi \u00e7evrelerce T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin a\u011f\u0131r bedeller \u00f6deyece\u011fi \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirildi. Ayn\u0131 \u00e7evrelerin 'sa\u011fl\u0131ks\u0131z' bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, Rusya'n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha ciddi ekonomik risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6rmemezlikten gelmesine \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak gerekiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>IMF\u2019N\u0130N \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcS\u00dc Y\u00dcZDE -0.6 DARALMA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ukrayna ile ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerginlik nedeniyle ABD ve AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan ciddi ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara maruz kalan Rusya'n\u0131n, bir nebze nefes alabildiyse, bunun tek nedeninin T\u00fcrkiye oldu\u011funu unutacak bir feveranl\u0131kta olmas\u0131, tam da bu co\u011frafyan\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f bozuklu\u011fu sorununa uyuyor. Rusya'n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ciddi k\u0131r\u0131lma riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na girilirken, T\u00fcrkiye'ye ve T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 ekonomik imkanlara \u00e7ok daha fazla ihtiyac\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebilmesini umut edelim. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), 2016 i\u00e7in Rusya'n\u0131n reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde -0.6 daralma olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda, pek \u00e7ok gerek\u00e7eye dayal\u0131 olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 30 dolara gerilemesi, Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Rusya'n\u0131n k\u00fcresel sistemde kendisini s\u00fcrekli ba\u015f\u0131 belada bir \u00fclke olarak tan\u0131tmas\u0131 nedeniyle sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131, Rusya'n\u0131n i\u015finin hayli zor oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>BAKANLIKLAR ALTERNAT\u0130F PAZARLARA YO\u011eUNLA\u015eACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Anadolu Ajans\u0131'n\u0131n toparlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgiler, Rusya Federal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu Servisi'nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerin \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Rusya'n\u0131n GSYH'n\u0131n 2015'in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 2.2; 2. \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 4.6; 3. \u00e7eyrekte ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4.1 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131smi fakirle\u015fme ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki erime nedeniyle ciddi bir hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6z kaynak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki zay\u0131flama, zaten 1-1.5 y\u0131ld\u0131r, gerek Antalya'daki ya\u015f sebze-meyve ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131za gerek turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcze gerekse de 'bavul ticareti'nin sembol\u00fc olan \u0130stanbul Laleli'deki tekstil firmalar\u0131m\u0131za y\u00fczde 10 ile y\u00fczde 30, hatta 40 oran\u0131nda yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yani, Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc diye bir anda Rusya pazar\u0131ndan elde edilen kazan\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc \u015feklinde bir durum yok.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bununla birlikte gerek ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z gerek bavul ticareti yapan firmalar\u0131m\u0131z gerekse de turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki otel, acente ve havayolu \u015firketlerimizin artabilecek kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131smen veya t\u00fcm\u00fcyle telafisine y\u00f6nelik olarak, ilgili bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n, ba\u015fka pazarlara yo\u011funla\u015fma ad\u0131na T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131na deste\u011fin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tedbirler devreye al\u0131nabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2016'DA DA K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Rus D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131'na ba\u011fl\u0131 Moskova Devlet \u00dcniversitesi D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prof. Dr. Aleksandr Bulatov'un de\u011ferlendirmeleri, 2016'n\u0131n Rusya ekonomisi i\u00e7in parlak bir y\u0131l olmayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Prof. Dr. Bulatov, Rusya'n\u0131n reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 2016 i\u00e7in sadece 0.7 art\u0131\u015f olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; IMF'nin ise negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Yeni Ekonomi \u00dcniversitesi Finans B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Oleg Shibanov da yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar nedeniyle Rus petrol \u015firketlerinin Bat\u0131l\u0131 firmalardan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekipmanlar\u0131n engellenmesi nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluk ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Rusya'da y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 8 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Shibanov, Rus \u015firketlerinin makro belirsizlikten \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya \u00e7ekindiklerini de hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki her 10 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Rusya'n\u0131n d\u00f6viz gelirlerini 20 milyar dolar azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle Rusya, bu y\u0131l\u0131n 8 ay\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatabilmek amac\u0131yla Rezerv Fonu'ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 milyar dolar harcamak zorunda kald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>REZERVLER\u0130 ER\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Putin'in ve Rus Y\u00f6netimi'nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcvencesi olan uluslararas\u0131 rezervler, 2008 k\u00fcresel krizi \u00f6ncesi 600 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyindeydi. Krizin ilk d\u00f6neminde 500 milyar dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ard\u0131ndan 520 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Ukrayna krizi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile 380 milyar dolara kadar geldi. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 66 milyar dolarl\u0131k Rus Rezerv Fonu ve 74 milyar dolarl\u0131k Ulusal Refah Fonu, 2016'da Rusya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir finansman kayna\u011f\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. Ama Rusya'n\u0131n yaln\u0131z kalmas\u0131, elindeki rezervi 'haz\u0131ra da\u011f dayanmaz' format\u0131 ile daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 eritebilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"izledigi-politika-rusyayi-2016da-zorlayabilir","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130zledi\u011fi politika Rusya'y\u0131 2016'da zorlayabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":420,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12917,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12818,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130zledi\u011fi politika Rusya'y\u0131 2016'da zorlayabilir","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye'nin, ulusal egemenlik hakk\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 nedeniyle Rusya ile ya\u015fanmakta olan diplomatik gerginlik s\u00fcreci, kimi \u00e7evrelerce T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin a\u011f\u0131r bedeller \u00f6deyece\u011fi \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirildi. Ayn\u0131 \u00e7evrelerin 'sa\u011fl\u0131ks\u0131z' bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, Rusya'n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha ciddi ekonomik risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6rmemezlikten gelmesine \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak gerekiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>IMF\u2019N\u0130N \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcS\u00dc Y\u00dcZDE -0.6 DARALMA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ukrayna ile ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerginlik nedeniyle ABD ve AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan ciddi ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara maruz kalan Rusya'n\u0131n, bir nebze nefes alabildiyse, bunun tek nedeninin T\u00fcrkiye oldu\u011funu unutacak bir feveranl\u0131kta olmas\u0131, tam da bu co\u011frafyan\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f bozuklu\u011fu sorununa uyuyor. Rusya'n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ciddi k\u0131r\u0131lma riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na girilirken, T\u00fcrkiye'ye ve T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 ekonomik imkanlara \u00e7ok daha fazla ihtiyac\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebilmesini umut edelim. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), 2016 i\u00e7in Rusya'n\u0131n reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde -0.6 daralma olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda, pek \u00e7ok gerek\u00e7eye dayal\u0131 olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 30 dolara gerilemesi, Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Rusya'n\u0131n k\u00fcresel sistemde kendisini s\u00fcrekli ba\u015f\u0131 belada bir \u00fclke olarak tan\u0131tmas\u0131 nedeniyle sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131, Rusya'n\u0131n i\u015finin hayli zor oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>BAKANLIKLAR ALTERNAT\u0130F PAZARLARA YO\u011eUNLA\u015eACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Anadolu Ajans\u0131'n\u0131n toparlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgiler, Rusya Federal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu Servisi'nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerin \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Rusya'n\u0131n GSYH'n\u0131n 2015'in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 2.2; 2. \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 4.6; 3. \u00e7eyrekte ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4.1 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131smi fakirle\u015fme ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki erime nedeniyle ciddi bir hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6z kaynak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki zay\u0131flama, zaten 1-1.5 y\u0131ld\u0131r, gerek Antalya'daki ya\u015f sebze-meyve ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131za gerek turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcze gerekse de 'bavul ticareti'nin sembol\u00fc olan \u0130stanbul Laleli'deki tekstil firmalar\u0131m\u0131za y\u00fczde 10 ile y\u00fczde 30, hatta 40 oran\u0131nda yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yani, Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc diye bir anda Rusya pazar\u0131ndan elde edilen kazan\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc \u015feklinde bir durum yok.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bununla birlikte gerek ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z gerek bavul ticareti yapan firmalar\u0131m\u0131z gerekse de turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki otel, acente ve havayolu \u015firketlerimizin artabilecek kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131smen veya t\u00fcm\u00fcyle telafisine y\u00f6nelik olarak, ilgili bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n, ba\u015fka pazarlara yo\u011funla\u015fma ad\u0131na T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131na deste\u011fin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tedbirler devreye al\u0131nabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2016'DA DA K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Rus D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131'na ba\u011fl\u0131 Moskova Devlet \u00dcniversitesi D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prof. Dr. Aleksandr Bulatov'un de\u011ferlendirmeleri, 2016'n\u0131n Rusya ekonomisi i\u00e7in parlak bir y\u0131l olmayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Prof. Dr. Bulatov, Rusya'n\u0131n reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 2016 i\u00e7in sadece 0.7 art\u0131\u015f olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; IMF'nin ise negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Yeni Ekonomi \u00dcniversitesi Finans B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Oleg Shibanov da yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar nedeniyle Rus petrol \u015firketlerinin Bat\u0131l\u0131 firmalardan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekipmanlar\u0131n engellenmesi nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluk ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Rusya'da y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 8 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Shibanov, Rus \u015firketlerinin makro belirsizlikten \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya \u00e7ekindiklerini de hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki her 10 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Rusya'n\u0131n d\u00f6viz gelirlerini 20 milyar dolar azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle Rusya, bu y\u0131l\u0131n 8 ay\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatabilmek amac\u0131yla Rezerv Fonu'ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 milyar dolar harcamak zorunda kald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>REZERVLER\u0130 ER\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Putin'in ve Rus Y\u00f6netimi'nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcvencesi olan uluslararas\u0131 rezervler, 2008 k\u00fcresel krizi \u00f6ncesi 600 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyindeydi. Krizin ilk d\u00f6neminde 500 milyar dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ard\u0131ndan 520 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Ukrayna krizi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile 380 milyar dolara kadar geldi. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 66 milyar dolarl\u0131k Rus Rezerv Fonu ve 74 milyar dolarl\u0131k Ulusal Refah Fonu, 2016'da Rusya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir finansman kayna\u011f\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. Ama Rusya'n\u0131n yaln\u0131z kalmas\u0131, elindeki rezervi 'haz\u0131ra da\u011f dayanmaz' format\u0131 ile daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 eritebilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"izledigi-politika-rusyayi-2016da-zorlayabilir","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130zledi\u011fi politika Rusya'y\u0131 2016'da zorlayabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":420,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}