{"status":true,"post":{"id":13512,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:29:14","created_at":"2016-04-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:29:14.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":13512,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130thalattaki 4.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k azalma \u00f6nemli","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Osmanl\u0131\u2019dan Cumhuriyet\u2019e, son 150 y\u0131ld\u0131r T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u00fcregelen bir tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 1975\u2019de 1.7 milyar dolar olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 1977 ve 1980\u2019de, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ciddi d\u00f6viz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 var iken, 3 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015f. \u00d6zall\u0131 y\u0131llarda, 1987\u2019de 806 milyon dolara gerileyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 1988 ve 89\u2019da, s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1.6 milyar dolar ve 938 milyon dolar fazlal\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>CAR\u0130 A\u00c7I\u011eI SERMAYE G\u0130R\u0130\u015e\u0130 \u0130LE F\u0130NANSE ETT\u0130K<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1994 krizi nedeniyle 2.6 milyar dolar cari fazla sonras\u0131, 1995 ve 96 do\u011fal olarak, 2.4 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile ge\u00e7mi\u015f. 1999\u2019daki 925 milyon dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, bir anda 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda 9.9 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi, IMF ile y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen stand-by\u2019\u0131n kurgu hatas\u0131, 2001\u2019de bizi daha a\u011f\u0131r bir krizle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve dolar kuru 697 bin TL\u2019den 1 milyon 300 bin TL\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rar iken, krizin etkisi ile cari i\u015flemler dengesi de bu defa 3.8 milyar dolar fazla verdi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k sadece 626 milyon dolar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse de, a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik kriz ve ya\u015fanan travma, Kas\u0131m 2002\u2019deki se\u00e7imlerde, bir\u00e7ok merkez sa\u011f ve sol partiyi baraj\u0131n alt\u0131na itti ve AK Parti tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidar oldu. 2003\u2019den itibaren toparlanmaya ba\u015flayan T\u00fcrk ekonomisinde cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki rekor 9.9 milyar dolarl\u0131k seviyesi sonras\u0131, \u00f6nce 7.6 milyar dolar\u0131, 2004\u2019de 14.2 milyar dolar\u0131, 2005\u2019de 21 milyar dolar\u0131, 2006\u2019da 31.2, 2007\u2019de 37 milyar dolar ve nihayet 2008\u2019de, o zaman bir Cumhuriyet tarihi rekoru olarak, 39.4 milyar dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye, 2004 ile 2007 aras\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, verilen cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek miktarda bir net sermaye giri\u015fine konu oldu\u011fundan, 2004\u2019de 3 milyar dolar, esas, AB\u2019ye tam \u00fcye aday\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131n resmiyet kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 2005\u2019de 22 milyar dolar, 2006\u2019da 11 milyar dolar ve 2007\u2019de de 13 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan daha fazla net sermaye giri\u015fine konu oldu\u011fundan, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki rekor art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervleri artmaya devam etti. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2011\u2019de, 80 milyar dolar ile Cumhuriyet tarihinin rekoruna gitmekte olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k, GSYH\u2019ye oranla y\u00fczde -10\u2019a y\u00fckselerek, zaten alarm veriyordu. O d\u00f6nemde, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin makro ihtiyati tedbirleri ile 80 milyar dolara do\u011fru ko\u015fan cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselme \u00f6nce durduruldu; ard\u0131ndan 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k 74.4 milyar dolarda kapatt\u0131 ve yeni cari a\u00e7\u0131kta yeni bir Cumhuriyet tarihi rekoru k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Makro ihtiyati tedbirlerin sonu\u00e7 vermesi ile 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda 48 milyar dolara gerileyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2013\u2019de H\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7erisinde \u2018gaz-fren\u2019 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, 63.6 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tekrar al\u0131nan tedbirler ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile 43.5 milyar dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>YERL\u0130 HAMMADDEYE Y\u00d6NELME M\u0130 VAR?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2015\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, 2014\u2019deki y\u00fczde 2.8 seviyesinden, y\u00fczde 4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f olsa da, ba\u015fta petrol olmak \u00fczere, k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin emtia ithalat\u0131 faturas\u0131na olumlu y\u00f6nde yans\u0131y\u0131nca ve artan dolar-TL kuru ile yurt i\u00e7indeki hammaddeye y\u00f6nelince, cari a\u00e7\u0131k 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda 32.1 milyar dolara geriledi. TCMB \u00d6demeler Dengesi verileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131 sonu itibariyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 30.5 milyar dolara kadar gerilemi\u015f durumda ki, finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki ekonomistler b\u00f6yle bir veri beklemiyorlard\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmede, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 2 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, ithalat\u0131n 4.5 milyar dolar azalmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Bu geli\u015fmede, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ciddi hammadde, emtia ithalat\u0131 olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeden nasiplenmesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ilgin\u00e7tir. T\u00fcrkiye, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak yerli girdi ile \u00fcretim yapan sekt\u00f6rlerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00f6nemli bir trend yakalad\u0131. Bu da, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam etmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Sanayi \u00fcretim verileri ise ocak ve \u015fubat aylar\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 aylar\u0131na g\u00f6re, y\u00fczde 5.3 ve y\u00fczde 5.8 olmak \u00fczere beklenenin bir hayli \u00fczerinde artmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki gerilemeye \u015fa\u015f\u0131rd\u0131lar. Bu arada \u015fubat ay\u0131nda resmi rezervler de 646 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ithalattaki-45-milyar-dolarlik-azalma-onemli","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130thalattaki 4.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k azalma \u00f6nemli","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":111,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":13611,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":13512,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130thalattaki 4.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k azalma \u00f6nemli","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Osmanl\u0131\u2019dan Cumhuriyet\u2019e, son 150 y\u0131ld\u0131r T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u00fcregelen bir tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 1975\u2019de 1.7 milyar dolar olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 1977 ve 1980\u2019de, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ciddi d\u00f6viz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 var iken, 3 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015f. \u00d6zall\u0131 y\u0131llarda, 1987\u2019de 806 milyon dolara gerileyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 1988 ve 89\u2019da, s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1.6 milyar dolar ve 938 milyon dolar fazlal\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>CAR\u0130 A\u00c7I\u011eI SERMAYE G\u0130R\u0130\u015e\u0130 \u0130LE F\u0130NANSE ETT\u0130K<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1994 krizi nedeniyle 2.6 milyar dolar cari fazla sonras\u0131, 1995 ve 96 do\u011fal olarak, 2.4 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile ge\u00e7mi\u015f. 1999\u2019daki 925 milyon dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, bir anda 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda 9.9 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi, IMF ile y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen stand-by\u2019\u0131n kurgu hatas\u0131, 2001\u2019de bizi daha a\u011f\u0131r bir krizle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve dolar kuru 697 bin TL\u2019den 1 milyon 300 bin TL\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rar iken, krizin etkisi ile cari i\u015flemler dengesi de bu defa 3.8 milyar dolar fazla verdi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k sadece 626 milyon dolar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse de, a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik kriz ve ya\u015fanan travma, Kas\u0131m 2002\u2019deki se\u00e7imlerde, bir\u00e7ok merkez sa\u011f ve sol partiyi baraj\u0131n alt\u0131na itti ve AK Parti tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidar oldu. 2003\u2019den itibaren toparlanmaya ba\u015flayan T\u00fcrk ekonomisinde cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki rekor 9.9 milyar dolarl\u0131k seviyesi sonras\u0131, \u00f6nce 7.6 milyar dolar\u0131, 2004\u2019de 14.2 milyar dolar\u0131, 2005\u2019de 21 milyar dolar\u0131, 2006\u2019da 31.2, 2007\u2019de 37 milyar dolar ve nihayet 2008\u2019de, o zaman bir Cumhuriyet tarihi rekoru olarak, 39.4 milyar dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye, 2004 ile 2007 aras\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, verilen cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek miktarda bir net sermaye giri\u015fine konu oldu\u011fundan, 2004\u2019de 3 milyar dolar, esas, AB\u2019ye tam \u00fcye aday\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131n resmiyet kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 2005\u2019de 22 milyar dolar, 2006\u2019da 11 milyar dolar ve 2007\u2019de de 13 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan daha fazla net sermaye giri\u015fine konu oldu\u011fundan, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki rekor art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervleri artmaya devam etti. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2011\u2019de, 80 milyar dolar ile Cumhuriyet tarihinin rekoruna gitmekte olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k, GSYH\u2019ye oranla y\u00fczde -10\u2019a y\u00fckselerek, zaten alarm veriyordu. O d\u00f6nemde, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin makro ihtiyati tedbirleri ile 80 milyar dolara do\u011fru ko\u015fan cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselme \u00f6nce durduruldu; ard\u0131ndan 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k 74.4 milyar dolarda kapatt\u0131 ve yeni cari a\u00e7\u0131kta yeni bir Cumhuriyet tarihi rekoru k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Makro ihtiyati tedbirlerin sonu\u00e7 vermesi ile 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda 48 milyar dolara gerileyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2013\u2019de H\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7erisinde \u2018gaz-fren\u2019 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, 63.6 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tekrar al\u0131nan tedbirler ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile 43.5 milyar dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>YERL\u0130 HAMMADDEYE Y\u00d6NELME M\u0130 VAR?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2015\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, 2014\u2019deki y\u00fczde 2.8 seviyesinden, y\u00fczde 4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f olsa da, ba\u015fta petrol olmak \u00fczere, k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin emtia ithalat\u0131 faturas\u0131na olumlu y\u00f6nde yans\u0131y\u0131nca ve artan dolar-TL kuru ile yurt i\u00e7indeki hammaddeye y\u00f6nelince, cari a\u00e7\u0131k 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda 32.1 milyar dolara geriledi. TCMB \u00d6demeler Dengesi verileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131 sonu itibariyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 30.5 milyar dolara kadar gerilemi\u015f durumda ki, finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki ekonomistler b\u00f6yle bir veri beklemiyorlard\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmede, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 2 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, ithalat\u0131n 4.5 milyar dolar azalmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Bu geli\u015fmede, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ciddi hammadde, emtia ithalat\u0131 olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeden nasiplenmesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ilgin\u00e7tir. T\u00fcrkiye, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak yerli girdi ile \u00fcretim yapan sekt\u00f6rlerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00f6nemli bir trend yakalad\u0131. Bu da, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam etmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Sanayi \u00fcretim verileri ise ocak ve \u015fubat aylar\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 aylar\u0131na g\u00f6re, y\u00fczde 5.3 ve y\u00fczde 5.8 olmak \u00fczere beklenenin bir hayli \u00fczerinde artmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki gerilemeye \u015fa\u015f\u0131rd\u0131lar. Bu arada \u015fubat ay\u0131nda resmi rezervler de 646 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ithalattaki-45-milyar-dolarlik-azalma-onemli","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130thalattaki 4.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k azalma \u00f6nemli","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":111,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}