{"status":true,"post":{"id":17761,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:23:07","created_at":"2018-01-07T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:23:07.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17761,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130ran sokaklar\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u00c7in Seddi\u2019ne","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f bitip, \u2018iki kutuplu gerginlik\u2019in tozu duman\u0131 ortadan kalkt\u0131ktan sonra, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir \u2018alan \u00e7evirme\u2019 operasyonu g\u00f6zlemledik. Almanya-Fransa, \u2018birle\u015fik Avrupa\u2019 ideali ad\u0131na AB projesinin etki alan\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla geni\u015fletirken, ABD t\u00fcm bir Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 konsolide etti. \u00c7in ise bir ucu Orta Asya Cumhuriyetleri ve \u0130ran\u2019a, bir ucu ise G\u00fcney Do\u011fu Asya\u2019ya uzanacak, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ne uzanacak bir pozisyonlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Rusya, 1991-2000 aras\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceki ba\u015fkan Yeltsin\u2019le heba ettikten sonra Putin\u2019li son 17 y\u0131l\u0131 iyi de\u011ferlendirip, Orta Asya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00c7in\u2019i dengelemeye y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyonlanmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verdi. ABD\u2019nin ataklar\u0131 ile Ukrayna ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a dayanan NATO s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131, iki \u00fclkeyi de k\u0131smen i\u015fgal ederek dengelemeyi tercih etti. Son 25 y\u0131l\u0131, Balkanlar, Karadeniz, Kafkasya, Hazar, Orta Asya, Afganistan, Pakistan, \u0130ran, Irak, Suriye, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Libya\u2019ya kadar uzanan bir hatta ya\u015fanan pek \u00e7ok sava\u015f, i\u00e7 sava\u015f ve insanl\u0131k trajedisini takip ederek, kah \u00fcz\u00fclerek, kah kahrolarak ge\u00e7irdik.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi geriye yaslan\u0131p, yukar\u0131da sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fclke ve co\u011frafyalar\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki konumlar\u0131n\u0131, s\u00f6z konusu \u00fclkelerde 25 y\u0131ld\u0131r hi\u00e7 bitmeyen kaosu, siyasi ve ekonomik belirsizlik ve \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tekrar g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcne getirin. Bu insanl\u0131k trajedisinden, ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hem k\u00fcresel enerji sava\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hem de \u00c7in, Rusya ve Hindistan gibi akt\u00f6rlerin Afrika\u2019ya uzanmalar\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecek bir pozisyonlanma \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda Afrika\u2019n\u0131n milli geliri 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 dahi bulmazken, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir bin dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndayken, 2030\u2019da 8, 2060\u2019ta ise 16 trilyon dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek bir milli gelir ve 6 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015facak bir ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelirden s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Katar Ablukas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan Kud\u00fcs k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019daki son sokak olaylar\u0131, bir sonraki k\u00fcresel kap\u0131\u015fman\u0131n adresi Afrika \u00fczerine pozisyonlanmad\u0131r. Afro-Asya hinterland\u0131nda, 2030\u2019a kadar 21 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir ek katma de\u011fer imkan\u0131na y\u00f6nelik, \u00c7in\u2019in ku\u015fak-yol projesi ile yapmay\u0131 tasarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hamle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de 3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir ekonomi olmaya ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Buradan, \u0130ran, Irak ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri de nemalanacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kenetlenme ve tuza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmemesi noktas\u0131ndaki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc budur. Muhtemel bir Suudi Arabistan-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019in b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn bu kaosun i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilmesi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varile yak\u0131n petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 durma noktas\u0131na getirecektir. Bu durumda, Avrupa ve Asya petrol ihtiyac\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin kap\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7almak zorunda kalacak. Ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc, 2030-2060 Afrika\u2019s\u0131 i\u00e7in verilen bir sava\u015ft\u0131r ve ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel enerji tedarikindeki yeni pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u0130ran sokaklar\u0131ndan ve K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n Karpaz Burnu\u2019ndan \u00c7in Seddi\u2019nin g\u00f6z\u00fckt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc asla unutmayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>AVRUPA\u2019YLA \u0130L\u0130\u015eK\u0130LER\u0130N \u2018NORMALLE\u015eMES\u0130\u2019 S\u0130NYAL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2018 T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, makro ekonomik alanda kimi kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n da dikkatle takip edilece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olacak. \u00d6ncelikle, Avrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomilerindeki g\u00f6receli d\u00fczelme ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bir s\u00fcre daha parasal geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek olmas\u0131, ba\u015fta Almanya, T\u00fcrkiye ile siyasi ili\u015fkileri normalle\u015ftirme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 ile birlikte, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2018\u2019de de ihracat hacmini art\u0131rabilme imkan\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu noktada, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n hen\u00fcz bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kuramam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu liderlik bo\u015flu\u011funu art\u0131k farkl\u0131 bir Avrupa beklediklerini, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n vites b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi gerekti\u011fini savunan Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Macron doldurmakta. Bu nedenle, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n Macron\u2019la Paris\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, ekonomik ve siyasi ili\u015fkilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi ad\u0131na hayli \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Avrupa \u015firketleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kimi Avrupa \u00fclkeleriyle ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyasi gerginlikleri i\u015f ili\u015fkilerinden ayr\u0131 tutmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131lar. Avrupa i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den mal tedarikiyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2014\u2019da elde etti\u011fi 157.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k ihracat rekoru, 2016\u2019ya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10.2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla, 2017\u2019de 157.1 milyar dolarla egale edildi. \u0130malat sanayinde \u00fcretimin \u00fcst \u00fcste on birinci ay ve son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine artmas\u0131, 2018\u2019de de ihracat\u0131n \u00fcretime ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini; T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2018\u2019in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131nda da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu noktada en dikkat etmemiz gereken konu, 2017\u2019den ba\u015flayarak, d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki toparlanmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak toparlanan k\u00fcresel emtia fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan sonra, 2018\u2019de de k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"iran-sokaklarindan-hurmuz-bogazi-ve-cin-seddine","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130ran sokaklar\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u00c7in Seddi\u2019ne","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":108,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":17860,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17761,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130ran sokaklar\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u00c7in Seddi\u2019ne","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f bitip, \u2018iki kutuplu gerginlik\u2019in tozu duman\u0131 ortadan kalkt\u0131ktan sonra, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir \u2018alan \u00e7evirme\u2019 operasyonu g\u00f6zlemledik. Almanya-Fransa, \u2018birle\u015fik Avrupa\u2019 ideali ad\u0131na AB projesinin etki alan\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla geni\u015fletirken, ABD t\u00fcm bir Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 konsolide etti. \u00c7in ise bir ucu Orta Asya Cumhuriyetleri ve \u0130ran\u2019a, bir ucu ise G\u00fcney Do\u011fu Asya\u2019ya uzanacak, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ne uzanacak bir pozisyonlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Rusya, 1991-2000 aras\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceki ba\u015fkan Yeltsin\u2019le heba ettikten sonra Putin\u2019li son 17 y\u0131l\u0131 iyi de\u011ferlendirip, Orta Asya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00c7in\u2019i dengelemeye y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyonlanmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verdi. ABD\u2019nin ataklar\u0131 ile Ukrayna ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a dayanan NATO s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131, iki \u00fclkeyi de k\u0131smen i\u015fgal ederek dengelemeyi tercih etti. Son 25 y\u0131l\u0131, Balkanlar, Karadeniz, Kafkasya, Hazar, Orta Asya, Afganistan, Pakistan, \u0130ran, Irak, Suriye, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Libya\u2019ya kadar uzanan bir hatta ya\u015fanan pek \u00e7ok sava\u015f, i\u00e7 sava\u015f ve insanl\u0131k trajedisini takip ederek, kah \u00fcz\u00fclerek, kah kahrolarak ge\u00e7irdik.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi geriye yaslan\u0131p, yukar\u0131da sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fclke ve co\u011frafyalar\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki konumlar\u0131n\u0131, s\u00f6z konusu \u00fclkelerde 25 y\u0131ld\u0131r hi\u00e7 bitmeyen kaosu, siyasi ve ekonomik belirsizlik ve \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tekrar g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcne getirin. Bu insanl\u0131k trajedisinden, ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hem k\u00fcresel enerji sava\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hem de \u00c7in, Rusya ve Hindistan gibi akt\u00f6rlerin Afrika\u2019ya uzanmalar\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecek bir pozisyonlanma \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda Afrika\u2019n\u0131n milli geliri 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 dahi bulmazken, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir bin dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndayken, 2030\u2019da 8, 2060\u2019ta ise 16 trilyon dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek bir milli gelir ve 6 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015facak bir ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelirden s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Katar Ablukas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan Kud\u00fcs k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019daki son sokak olaylar\u0131, bir sonraki k\u00fcresel kap\u0131\u015fman\u0131n adresi Afrika \u00fczerine pozisyonlanmad\u0131r. Afro-Asya hinterland\u0131nda, 2030\u2019a kadar 21 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir ek katma de\u011fer imkan\u0131na y\u00f6nelik, \u00c7in\u2019in ku\u015fak-yol projesi ile yapmay\u0131 tasarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hamle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de 3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir ekonomi olmaya ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Buradan, \u0130ran, Irak ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri de nemalanacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kenetlenme ve tuza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmemesi noktas\u0131ndaki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc budur. Muhtemel bir Suudi Arabistan-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019in b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn bu kaosun i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilmesi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varile yak\u0131n petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 durma noktas\u0131na getirecektir. Bu durumda, Avrupa ve Asya petrol ihtiyac\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin kap\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7almak zorunda kalacak. Ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc, 2030-2060 Afrika\u2019s\u0131 i\u00e7in verilen bir sava\u015ft\u0131r ve ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel enerji tedarikindeki yeni pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u0130ran sokaklar\u0131ndan ve K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n Karpaz Burnu\u2019ndan \u00c7in Seddi\u2019nin g\u00f6z\u00fckt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc asla unutmayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>AVRUPA\u2019YLA \u0130L\u0130\u015eK\u0130LER\u0130N \u2018NORMALLE\u015eMES\u0130\u2019 S\u0130NYAL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2018 T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, makro ekonomik alanda kimi kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n da dikkatle takip edilece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olacak. \u00d6ncelikle, Avrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomilerindeki g\u00f6receli d\u00fczelme ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bir s\u00fcre daha parasal geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek olmas\u0131, ba\u015fta Almanya, T\u00fcrkiye ile siyasi ili\u015fkileri normalle\u015ftirme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 ile birlikte, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2018\u2019de de ihracat hacmini art\u0131rabilme imkan\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu noktada, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n hen\u00fcz bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kuramam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu liderlik bo\u015flu\u011funu art\u0131k farkl\u0131 bir Avrupa beklediklerini, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n vites b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi gerekti\u011fini savunan Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Macron doldurmakta. Bu nedenle, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n Macron\u2019la Paris\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, ekonomik ve siyasi ili\u015fkilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi ad\u0131na hayli \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Avrupa \u015firketleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kimi Avrupa \u00fclkeleriyle ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyasi gerginlikleri i\u015f ili\u015fkilerinden ayr\u0131 tutmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131lar. Avrupa i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den mal tedarikiyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2014\u2019da elde etti\u011fi 157.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k ihracat rekoru, 2016\u2019ya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10.2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla, 2017\u2019de 157.1 milyar dolarla egale edildi. \u0130malat sanayinde \u00fcretimin \u00fcst \u00fcste on birinci ay ve son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine artmas\u0131, 2018\u2019de de ihracat\u0131n \u00fcretime ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini; T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2018\u2019in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131nda da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu noktada en dikkat etmemiz gereken konu, 2017\u2019den ba\u015flayarak, d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki toparlanmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak toparlanan k\u00fcresel emtia fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan sonra, 2018\u2019de de k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"iran-sokaklarindan-hurmuz-bogazi-ve-cin-seddine","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130ran sokaklar\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u00c7in Seddi\u2019ne","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":108,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}