{"status":true,"post":{"id":39055,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-04-17 07:53:00","created_at":"2023-04-17T04:53:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-04-17T04:53:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":39055,"is_featured":0,"title":"IMF\u2019den 3 kritik \u2018k\u00fcresel\u2019 uyar\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Son 3 ayd\u0131r, Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) taraf\u0131ndan ard\u0131 ard\u0131na yay\u0131nlanan raporlar, 2023-2024 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in 3 kritik \u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ya\u015fanacak riske i\u015faret ediyor; 3 kritik alana y\u00f6nelik olarak uyar\u0131larda bulunuyor. Bunlardan ilki, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u00f6nemli ve derinle\u015fen bir soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen \u2018ya\u015fam standard\u0131 kriziyle m\u00fccadele\u2019. Bu ifadeyi, bir miktar daha T\u00fcrk\u00e7ele\u015ftirerek, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ge\u00e7im derdi kriziyle m\u00fccadele olarak \u00f6zetleyebiliriz. Ba\u015fta IMF, t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilatlar, G7 ekonomilerinde dahi 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda man\u015fet enflasyon oran\u0131 ortalama y\u00fczde 9-10 band\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015f iken, nominal \u00fccretlere ayn\u0131 ekonomilerde yap\u0131lan ortalama y\u00fczde 5.9 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, G7 ekonomilerinde de reel \u00fccretlerin enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda eridi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde \u00fccretle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kesimin genel bir memnuniyetsizli\u011fi s\u00f6z konusu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

HEN\u00dcZ EN K\u00d6T\u00dc YA\u015eANMADI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

IMF\u2019nin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ikinci uyar\u0131s\u0131, \u2018hen\u00fcz k\u00fcresel ekonomide en k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 uyar\u0131s\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu jeopolitik belirsizlik ve gerginli\u011fin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u2018Covid-19\u2019 k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki aksakl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler ve bu noktada \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerin tedarik g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik yeni aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131, bilhassa \u2018man\u015fet enflasyon\u2019dan \u00e7ok, \u2018\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k\u2019a y\u00f6nelik riskler, 2023 sonbahar\u0131 ve 2024 k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdiden kolay ge\u00e7meyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, 2023 sonbahar\u0131 ve 2024 k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131na, yine ba\u015fta IMF, uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilatlar k\u00fcresel enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, k\u00fcresel g\u0131da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirine y\u00f6nelik riskleri sorgulamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

IMF, tedarik zincirindeki aksamalar ve artan jeopolitik gerilimlerin, jeoekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmadan kaynaklanan riskler ile birlikte k\u00fcresel tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n merkezine ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

F\u0130NANS S\u0130STEM\u0130NE D\u0130KKAT<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

IMF Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Georgieva, te\u015fkilat\u0131n tahminlerinin d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2023\u2019te 1990\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kaydedece\u011fini i\u015faret ederken, 2023-2024 d\u00f6neminin \u2018zorlu ve sisli\u2019 oldu\u011funun da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. Bu noktada, IMF\u2019nin i\u015faret etti\u011fi 3. kritik k\u00fcresel uyar\u0131 ise uluslararas\u0131 finans sistemine y\u00f6nelik. IMF, jeopolitik gerilimlerin neden oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel finansal ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketlerin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi ak\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemlerini ve hisse senedi, tahvil ve gayrimenkul gibi varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyerek, k\u00fcresel finansal istikrar i\u00e7in potansiyel bir risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re s\u00f6z konusu k\u00fcresel tablo, bankalar\u0131n fonlama maliyetlerini art\u0131rarak, bir yandan k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131rken, di\u011fer yanda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6re verdikleri kredileri azaltarak, makro-finansal istikrara y\u00f6nelik riskler olu\u015fturabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu ifadenin anlam\u0131, uzun vadede makro-finansal oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetlenebilece\u011fi. Ne yaz\u0131k ki, bunun etkisi geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden \u00e7ok y\u00fckselen piyasalar ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler i\u00e7in daha belirgin olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle, 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinden sonraki kritik 5 y\u0131lda oldu\u011fu gibi bug\u00fcnlerde de d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 40 ekonomisinin denetleyici ve d\u00fczenleyici reg\u00fclat\u00f6r kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ve finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi i\u00e7in stres testlerine ve senaryo analizlerine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilecek sistematik bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma y\u00f6nelmelerine ihtiya\u00e7 var. ABD\u2019de iflas eden 3, AB\u2019de ise iflas eden 1 banka hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00f6z konusu riskler devlet tahvillerindeki faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek bankalar\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini azaltabilir ve fonlama maliyetlerini de art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle, IMF \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ad\u0131na faiz art\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminde risk art\u0131rmayacak bir d\u00fczende y\u00f6netilmesi gerekti\u011fini hararetle hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan Georgieva\u2019n\u0131n \u2018Covid-19\u2019 krizi ile ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel yoksulluk ve a\u00e7l\u0131k trendinin daha da tehlike yaratan bir noktaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da atlamayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"imfden-3-kritik-kuresel-uyari","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/16816788002kOOprVWIoEI9wi.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1604,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":39181,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":39055,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"IMF\u2019den 3 kritik \u2018k\u00fcresel\u2019 uyar\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Son 3 ayd\u0131r, Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) taraf\u0131ndan ard\u0131 ard\u0131na yay\u0131nlanan raporlar, 2023-2024 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in 3 kritik \u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ya\u015fanacak riske i\u015faret ediyor; 3 kritik alana y\u00f6nelik olarak uyar\u0131larda bulunuyor. Bunlardan ilki, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u00f6nemli ve derinle\u015fen bir soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen \u2018ya\u015fam standard\u0131 kriziyle m\u00fccadele\u2019. Bu ifadeyi, bir miktar daha T\u00fcrk\u00e7ele\u015ftirerek, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ge\u00e7im derdi kriziyle m\u00fccadele olarak \u00f6zetleyebiliriz. Ba\u015fta IMF, t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilatlar, G7 ekonomilerinde dahi 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda man\u015fet enflasyon oran\u0131 ortalama y\u00fczde 9-10 band\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015f iken, nominal \u00fccretlere ayn\u0131 ekonomilerde yap\u0131lan ortalama y\u00fczde 5.9 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, G7 ekonomilerinde de reel \u00fccretlerin enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda eridi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde \u00fccretle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kesimin genel bir memnuniyetsizli\u011fi s\u00f6z konusu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

HEN\u00dcZ EN K\u00d6T\u00dc YA\u015eANMADI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

IMF\u2019nin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ikinci uyar\u0131s\u0131, \u2018hen\u00fcz k\u00fcresel ekonomide en k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 uyar\u0131s\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu jeopolitik belirsizlik ve gerginli\u011fin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u2018Covid-19\u2019 k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki aksakl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler ve bu noktada \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerin tedarik g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik yeni aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131, bilhassa \u2018man\u015fet enflasyon\u2019dan \u00e7ok, \u2018\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k\u2019a y\u00f6nelik riskler, 2023 sonbahar\u0131 ve 2024 k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdiden kolay ge\u00e7meyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, 2023 sonbahar\u0131 ve 2024 k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131na, yine ba\u015fta IMF, uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilatlar k\u00fcresel enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, k\u00fcresel g\u0131da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirine y\u00f6nelik riskleri sorgulamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

IMF, tedarik zincirindeki aksamalar ve artan jeopolitik gerilimlerin, jeoekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmadan kaynaklanan riskler ile birlikte k\u00fcresel tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n merkezine ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

F\u0130NANS S\u0130STEM\u0130NE D\u0130KKAT<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

IMF Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Georgieva, te\u015fkilat\u0131n tahminlerinin d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2023\u2019te 1990\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kaydedece\u011fini i\u015faret ederken, 2023-2024 d\u00f6neminin \u2018zorlu ve sisli\u2019 oldu\u011funun da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. Bu noktada, IMF\u2019nin i\u015faret etti\u011fi 3. kritik k\u00fcresel uyar\u0131 ise uluslararas\u0131 finans sistemine y\u00f6nelik. IMF, jeopolitik gerilimlerin neden oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel finansal ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketlerin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi ak\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemlerini ve hisse senedi, tahvil ve gayrimenkul gibi varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyerek, k\u00fcresel finansal istikrar i\u00e7in potansiyel bir risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re s\u00f6z konusu k\u00fcresel tablo, bankalar\u0131n fonlama maliyetlerini art\u0131rarak, bir yandan k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131rken, di\u011fer yanda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6re verdikleri kredileri azaltarak, makro-finansal istikrara y\u00f6nelik riskler olu\u015fturabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu ifadenin anlam\u0131, uzun vadede makro-finansal oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetlenebilece\u011fi. Ne yaz\u0131k ki, bunun etkisi geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden \u00e7ok y\u00fckselen piyasalar ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler i\u00e7in daha belirgin olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle, 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinden sonraki kritik 5 y\u0131lda oldu\u011fu gibi bug\u00fcnlerde de d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 40 ekonomisinin denetleyici ve d\u00fczenleyici reg\u00fclat\u00f6r kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ve finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi i\u00e7in stres testlerine ve senaryo analizlerine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilecek sistematik bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma y\u00f6nelmelerine ihtiya\u00e7 var. ABD\u2019de iflas eden 3, AB\u2019de ise iflas eden 1 banka hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00f6z konusu riskler devlet tahvillerindeki faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek bankalar\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini azaltabilir ve fonlama maliyetlerini de art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle, IMF \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ad\u0131na faiz art\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminde risk art\u0131rmayacak bir d\u00fczende y\u00f6netilmesi gerekti\u011fini hararetle hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan Georgieva\u2019n\u0131n \u2018Covid-19\u2019 krizi ile ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel yoksulluk ve a\u00e7l\u0131k trendinin daha da tehlike yaratan bir noktaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da atlamayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"imfden-3-kritik-kuresel-uyari","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/16816788002kOOprVWIoEI9wi.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/16816788002kOOprVWIoEI9wi.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1604,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}